Inside Israel Today: Anything But Additional Elections

you're listening to inside Israel today with your Hoffman on the land of Israel Network hello and welcome to inside Israel today on the land of israel network on the land of israel comm where i am back in the saddle excited about being back in israel again doing this show after three exciting weeks on the road that took me all over over the last three weeks I have had wonderful people in Austin Texas in Chicago in Lake Tahoe in Las Vegas in San Diego in Irvine in Santa Barbara Agoura Hills in Los Angeles in Philadelphia and Allentown Pennsylvania Fort Washington Pennsylvania Ballack in would I guess that's separate out of Marian station Pennsylvania up and down New Jersey all the way from Newark Morristown home Dale Manalapan all the way down to Ventnor and near Atlantic City and also Pensacola Florida Montgomery Alabama and in Canada in Winnipeg what a fun three weeks it was exhausting though ladies and gentlemen traveling in America is not as fun as it used to be having to wake up at 3:30 to catch an uber and you get to an airport an hour and a half in advance of a flight because you're in a busy airport and then be told right when you get there actually your flight has been delayed and you could have stayed in your bed for another couple hours I never thought I could fall asleep in an airport I've actually become quite good at it as long as you have an alarm it's okay even if it looks funny so it is what it is and I think the timing of my speaking tour ended up being perfect because I didn't miss anything with all due respect I knew that the government was not going to be formed while I was away that this was garbage time to use a term from the NBA and that they were gonna wait for me these politicians to form a government when I came back or maybe not even then we'll see I did miss kind of a little operation going on with Gaza that happened when I was still in Winnipeg and was still going on when I got home but shortly after that it ended I thank God with the Israeli side at not suffering any casualties beyond people lightly wounded hurting themselves on the way to their shelters and more power to the people of Israel that they obeyed the orders of the home front command and stayed safe for a while though what that showed us was that the people of Israel have a way of uniting that whenever we have a security situation which of course can start at any second on any day this is something it brings the people of Israel together suddenly they can put aside their differences over what kind of government we should which political parties to support what policies there should be and everyone can unite behind it just making sure that no one gets hurt and that there are a minimum of casualties on both sides and while Israel's enemies are trying to maximize civilian deaths on both sides and succeeding only on their own so the America though they don't have this they don't have this advantage that at any given point the security situation could break out now of course I don't wish that on them in any way but because they don't have that security situation that's what makes it be completely polarized with no end in sight the red states will continue to hate the blue states the blue states will continue to hate the red states everybody will continue to be jealous of the purple states and even within those red states there'll be plenty of people don't like Donald Trump and I've even within those blue states that we've plenty of people who are totally embarrassed by the behavior and the statements and the policies of there are 20,000 candidates for president of United States that's what I saw in America I saw America just as divided as ever but Israel being something that continues to unite Americans perhaps the only thing that continues to unite Americans I mean maybe they United a little bit that when the Washington Nationals won the World Series you know I'm sure they're they're people in Houston didn't like that very much but the rest of the country I thought they thought it was pretty cool so that was maybe one thing oh when you can have a sports event that can unite everybody but the losers know that's something that America can have but to unite everyone you know they haven't had some big event like that in a long time in part cuz they they take things for granted when they win a medal you know who cares they want another medal when they win a Nobel Prize ah find another nobel prize here in israel when we win a medal wow the people of israel gets so excited we've got a the baseball team of israel that's going to be but competing in the Olympics now I don't think we'll win a medal but we're competing in the Olympics in baseball wow that's something we could unite all Israelis that have any idea what baseball is when we win a Nobel Prize that's amazing that's something a totally unites Israelis that's something that we take so much pride in that's such a big deal and there have been plenty of other events when we won the Eurovision Song Contest that was very exciting for Israelis when we try to land a plane on the moon or a spaceship I guess it was that's also very exciting it's another thing that unites Israelis and we did land on the moon very very fast but we did land on the moon we are the fourth country in the world to land on the moon after America Russia China and then us little Israel nowhere near as big and and we did it sort of I just loved seeing how much people care about Israel in America and you know what it was even more special for me personally I liked seeing the way people care in America about Israeli politics that's right I mentioned security in my talks never at the beginning they knew they were coming to a talk about Israeli politics you know that what happened in Gaza happened an hour after my last talk in Canada ended so I had very very impressive crowds all over the place Edythe Israel in Marion Station Pennsylvania huge crowd there from the men's club Santa Barbara and that Sunday in May birth congregation such a huge crowd very impressive crowd in Agoura Hills these people came because they wanted to know what was going on with a political situation in Israel and you know I've had people at the Jerusalem Post telling me oh they care about security that's what they click on they care about peace process if there ever would be one that's what they like to click on they used to think that they don't click on health articles that's been proven completely false the articles about Israelis curing cancer there have been by far the most clicked on articles in The Jerusalem Post and so now you're gay Israeli politics they don't click on that so much and you know what not true when they've been clicking and clicking and clicking around the world to find out what's going on in Israeli politics they know that the Jerusalem Post is the source and the fact that I could speak all over America 33 lectures and Canada and people care to come out it was absolutely beautiful for me to see so what's going on in Israeli politics I will tell you momentarily after this word from our sponsors here at Land of Israel Network the question is why are the Jews there in the first place the Jewish people have been yearning to return to their ancient homeland for a long time they Yishai fleischer show the voice of a new generation of pro-israel activist and there's only two kinds of minorities in the Middle East armed or unarmed inspiring mind to think differently that jihadism doesn't just attack Jews it attacks Christians and it mostly attacks Muslims inspiration spirituality and politics so first and foremost this country is we're here to defend Jewish people and to live in a sense estriol homeland listen to the Isha Fleischer show every week on the Land of Israel network at the Land of Israel dot-com [Music] and we're back here on inside Israel today how the Land of Israel network on the land of Israel dot-com where we are in the midst of it the most exciting time in Israeli politics when we were still trying to figure out what is going to happen and the people around the world as I mentioned care about what's going to happen in Israeli politics and that's why they go to the Jerusalem Post and that's why they go to Land of Israel calm and so what is going on well at this moment when I am taping this show Tuesday morning Israel time Avigdor Lieberman is arriving at the Prime Minister's office in order to meet with Netanyahu to speak about the formation of a government a big door Lieberman the kingmaker the man who has in his power to enable the formation of any possible government or prevent it is coming there and he will be telling that now again a unity government can and should be formed and he will help facilitate that even though it is not easy because Lieberman yesterday did not succeed in persuading and against to let Netanyahu go first in a rotation in the prime minister's office if Ganz would agree to that his party would break up and men against does not want to break up his party and because of that it could end up being that there could be a right-wing government victor Lieberman has gone to war against the ultra-orthodox over the last year and any given point he could drop that war his deadline is noon on Wednesday it was supposed to be midnight tonight Tuesday night should have been very not nice to print newspapers which still exist but in he delayed it to Wednesday at noon which would give Ganz 12 hours to announced that he has a government that's formable so let's talk about these different possibilities that there are yesterday Amita Sehgal the top political analyst on Israeli television on the Channel 12 News Channel said that the order of likelihood is the following he said the most likely is an election followed by a unity government followed by a right-wing government followed by a minority government which means a left-wing government supported from the outside by a joint list of Arab parties or just a few Arab Knesset members who would not be joining the government because of their fears have collective responsibility for any decision made by that government to empower the IDF to take action against their cousins in Gaza but they are willing to receive funding to improve the quality of life in their sector so that's those are the four possibilities so Sehgal said elections first I'm telling you elections last I'm saying it all along from day one we will not be going to elections the people of Israel will not tolerate it and the reason why we went to an election the second time was no one thought it was going to happen and because no one thought it was going to happen they let it happen by accident this time everybody knows it can happen and that's why they will make sure it won't happen and so different possibilities I say most likely is still a unity government followed by left-wing minority government followed by right-wing government all three being possible if I could say that for the fourth one being nothing and it's not possible but the fifth being elections it's not going to happen so let's talk about the possibilities going upward so I said a right-wing government third maybe it's been become more likely in the last day or two this means of a leader Lieberman giving up everything he has said over the last few months about how the ultra-orthodox are the problem and we can't give in to them and anything and giving in he could he could still give in to them and enable the formation of a government that would be the most homogeneous government that we've had only right-wing parties 55 in 19 hours current block of right-wing parties and religious parties together with the eight members of Knesset from Lieberman LBJ knew that can still happen there's one idea floated today that they meant on matters of religion state the ultra-orthodox would still get pretty much everything except that there'd be some formula and drafting is Shiva students what would they would give up is the Finance Committee that's very powerful in the Knesset and the health and interior ministries that they've controlled for so long would go over to Lieberman's party and then he can say I have accomplishments he wouldn't get all the other matters of religion state that he wanted to get but taking the ultra-orthodox out of the Ministry of Interior and out of the Finance Committee those powerful positions would definitely something that Lieberman can use to claim victory it's definitely an idea and so Lieberman Nitin Eric talking about that right now apparently at the prime minister's office and this can indeed lead to a right-wing government being formed any time after Wednesday night at midnight when impending ganses mandate to form a government exclusively will expire and so the only government it looks like at the moment that Gans can form is it that minority left-wing government where you would have been against is blue and white 32 33 seats together with the Labor Party's six seats with Geshe the five seats of the Democratic Union that includes merits the left-wing party okay so that brings us up to 44 and Lieberman would bring us up to 52 and then there would have to be at times 9 Knesset members from the joint list supporting the government for instance on passing a state budget that requires 61 but most things just require majority and it's now would remain with his 55 so all you need is for nessip members from the Arab joint list out of the 13 to cooperate with whatever the government would do and return for all that money for their sector that remains a possibility because Yair Lapid it's the only thing he'd let happen if it's if Gant's would give in to the the proposal by the president which has Netanyahu gone first as Prime Minister that is a possibility but it's also possible that maybe Gabi Ashkenazi he was number 3 and very powerful in the party would enable that to happen Moshe bogey alone detest Netanyahu with a passion but maybe would facilitate that compromise and just wouldn't agree to serve under Netanyahu but Lapidus arkum stances would not agree to join such a government the only government he would agree to join is that left-wing government even though he does not like the Arab Knesset members anyway and it takes pains to say he centrist and not left-wing he would facilitate only the creation of left-wing government at this point because he detest Netanyahu so much and believes Israel needs clean leadership and on Sunday Monday we're gonna find out if Netanyahu is clean leadership when the Attorney General is going to be issuing his final ruling to indict the prime minister or not indict him we'll see um so that last possibility yes I still say the most likely possibility is a unity government of blue and white and we could and perhaps would become easier if there isn't an indictment or if there is an indictment because if there isn't an indictment then maybe there would be less pressure not to join that government for blue and white and if there is an indictment maybe there'll be pressure on liquid to come up with a different kind of leader who would then be able to go first as Prime Minister blue and white would agree to and then Gant's would go second and everybody could be happy except for Netanyahu I don't know how they'd have to make some kind of snap election Hindley could but they can't do it it is still possible all these scenarios are preferable to go to an election I'll give you one more possibility it's kind of technical and weird but could happen by law ganz does not have to form a government by Wednesday night at midnight he just has to say that he's form the government by Wednesday night at midnight all he has to do is say the words in Hebrew to president Rivlin a lobby Adel Hakeem M Shilla it came to my hands to form a government now he doesn't necessarily even have to say what government that is but at any given point over the next seven days Yuli Edelstein the Speaker of the Knesset could bring that government to a vote he can after midnight Wednesday night though that's especially rude I don't think he will but the Thursday morning could say okay against going to vote now then again Yuli Edelstein is not rude he could very well let Garren's have until the following Wednesday and what does that do it delays the formation of a government until after mandible its ruling assuming the reports are true that he will be issuing his decision on Netanyahu's indictment by Sunday or Monday and then we will finally know did Netanyahu commit bribery or not which is what can facilitate forming that government and then if it happens Sunday morning it was between Sunday morning and Wednesday at 11:59 p.m. that is plenty of time for a unity government to be formed even if it would be with the tacit understanding on that Wednesday night before the reason why Gant said I came to my hands to form a government is to form a minority government he could forget about the air oppressive members right after a Netanyahu indictment and then form with the good he can definitely still do that all of those ideas are out there now that last scenario is quite unlikely because malleolus tina's from Billy could and he's not going to overtly take action against Nittany ow and because of that it looks like there will not be a chance for Benny Gans to be able to form a government after the Attorney General issues his ruling except if it's really really bad I know that Ganz wanted to wait he was really hoping that that the Attorney General would make his decision during this exclusive time that he has now to form a government by Wednesday midnight and it's not happening the Attorney General analogy making his decision by tomorrow the Attorney General did not want to overthrow the Prime Minister but a few days after that during the 21 days when any Knesset member could form a government then he's not being unfair then it would be okay announced that ruling this Sunday is totally normal and acceptable and healthy for the prime minister now of course for the Attorney General now of course if there is no success in anyone forming a government during those three weeks then we will automatically go to elections actually when there is one more thing during those three weeks let's say the last day December 11th then somebody submits 61 signatures of Knesset members saying they want this person to form a government then they get two more weeks to do it which would take us from December 11th to December 25th which is funny because the Netanyahu's first step to initiate elections last year was in December 24th so we would get to a full year or we could not have a government if nobody forms of government during those three weeks at all or during the two weeks after that somebody tries to form a government and then fails then we get a 9 to within 90 days that last Tuesday with the 90 days we have our election so it is not with those extra two weeks then that last used it within 90 days as we have said on our show before would fall on Purim which is very fitting because a farce is a farce is a farce and I was in America the beginning of November and for some reason in the beginning of November the costume shops have clearance sales the Trump costumes were on sale not a bad time to buy those Trump masks for our Knesset members here in Israel that they could wear out on election day maybe that'll get them some votes you never know so that is all the excitement that is going on right now in Israeli politics it's dizzying but you know what it is not as big a problem as there is in England and it is not as big a problem as there is in America people in Canada are very happy their elections already over but it's so cold oh so I like Israel I'm glad I live here I'm glad that I cover politics over here it's a pleasure doing this show being back with you all over America all over the world all over Israel of people listen to the show thank you so much or listening and have a great day from here in Jerusalem iPod [Music] the world says Albert Einstein is a dangerous place to live not because of people who are evil but because of the people who don't do anything about it and I say one thing you can always do is tell the tale Sam Roth Mike Feuer and this is the Jewish story join Roth Mike foyer for the best Jewish history podcast the Jewish story on the Land of Israel network at the Land of Israel [Music]