The Russian Invasion of Crimea 2014

It's a few minutes before 4:00 a.m. on the 27th of February, 2014. The capital of the autonomous republic of Crimea, Simferopol, is quiet but tense following a week of tumultuous events. The only people awake this early are stragglers from the mass protests which have gripped Crimea or the first employees headed for work. At 4:00 a.m., these pedestrians are shocked when the streets of Simferopol are suddenly filled with GAZ STS Tiger infantry mobility vehicles, Ural military trucks, and armored personnel carriers. These vehicles stop occasionally and masked men with no insignia or identification and carrying weapons dismount. They form a perimeter around important key intersections and government buildings. Even though Crimea is ruled directly by the government of Ukraine and is internationally recognized as Ukrainian territory, these mysterious men are not Ukrainian soldiers. Local officials are bewildered by the sudden appearance of an occupying force, much less one without an identity. Propagandists from the Russian Federation refer to them as stoic, non-confrontational soldiers, so-called polite people who are in Crimea to maintain law and order. They will soon become known as little green men. The morning of the 27th of February marks the official beginning of Russia's invasion of Crimea, an act of aggression that announces Russia's intention to expand its territories. >> [music] >> The The of the Soviet Union in December of 1991 marks the fall of the world's first communist nation and the abrupt end of Soviet global power. The former superpower shattered into 15 different countries with the Russian Federation becoming the official successor state to the USSR. However, approximately 140 million other people suddenly found themselves under new management with the most important being Ukraine. Ukraine was the second largest Soviet republic and had been an integral part of both Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union for over 200 years. The republic's fertile soil, untapped mineral resources, and endless farmland made it the breadbasket of the world and the Soviet Union's most prized possession in the 20th century. Furthermore, the country's heavy industrial base was key to maintaining the USSR's military, producing aircraft engines, warships, and tanks. This is Professor Mark Galeotti, author of Putin Takes Crimea 2014, Gray Zone Warfare Opens the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. From the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991, the relationship of Russia and the new Ukrainian state were always going to be problematic. On the one hand, they were important trading partners with a long pedigree of having been part of the same state. But on the other hand, Ukrainian nationalism in particular were going to resent [music] being in Moscow's shed. Ukraine shares a complicated and often bloody history with Russia. Historians from both Russia and Ukraine believe that both countries have roots stemming from the medieval kingdom of Kievan Rus, whose capital was Kyiv. It encompassed much of the land of modern-day Ukraine, Belarus, and Western Russia and was the political entity of the East Slavic peoples. Its culture blended Slavic, Byzantine, and Viking influences, with the word Rus originating from the previous Viking rulers. Here, there is a key disagreement between the modern-day countries, which continues to shape the conflict between the two. Ukrainians generally view the Kievan Rus as its own ancestral state, while Russia sees it as the origin of a so-called broader Russian world. The debate lying around who is the true heir of the state. This is Professor Jessica Driscoll, co-author of Ukraine's Unnamed War before the Russian invasion of 2022. In Russia, you have many Russians who just don't think that Ukraine is really a place, because it doesn't really exist, because even though it's a state, it's kind of a fake state. It's not just Vladimir Putin who thinks that. There are, unfortunately, many Russians who think that, and it's importantly different than [music] Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, even Georgia. Those are really places that really exist and are not Russia. And Russians will be quick to tell you that they're not Russia. The Mongol destruction of Kyiv in 1240 ended the unity of the Kievan Rus. Much of what is now Western Ukrainian lands came under the control of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, and later the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The lands of now East Ukraine fell under Mongol, and then Muscovite and Tatar influence. The northern territories of the now defunct Kievan Rus, the lands of modern-day Belarus, Eastern Poland, and the Baltics, would splinter into several different kingdoms before being eventually absorbed by Poland-Lithuania and the Grand Principality of Moscow. Meanwhile, the people of most of the area of modern Ukraine were known as Ruthenians, derived from the word Rus, an early ethnic definition for Ukrainian identity. Under Polish-Lithuanian rule, Ruthenian elites retained their own church, the Eastern Orthodox and later Greek Catholic, and language traditions, which evolved into Old Ukrainian. The Western influences of Catholicism and Latin education blended with Eastern [music] Orthodox heritage, helping shape a separate distinct cultural trajectory among these peoples from both Moscow and Poland. The rise of the Zaporizhian Cossacks on the steppe frontier created a distinct self-governing militarized society that saw itself as free and Orthodox and neither Polish nor Muscovite. The Cossack Hetmanate, founded after Bohdan Khmelnytsky's uprising in 1648, embodied early Ukrainian statehood. It had its own administration, diplomacy, and identity. The term Ukraine was increasingly used to describe these territories, but by the 17th century, it had gained emotional and political meaning, symbolizing a homeland and nation rather than a periphery. However, after alliances and wars with Poland and Moscow, these lands were gradually absorbed by the Tsarist Russian Empire. Both the Tsars and then the Communists subjugated Ukraine in the hopes of destroying its dream of Ukrainian statehood. Russian nationalists generally consider Ukrainians to be ethnically Russian and deny the existence of a separate Ukrainian identity and culture. The Tsars aggressively pursued a policy of Russification in Ukraine, suppressing the local language and encouraging Russian settlers to move to Ukraine in order to homogenize the population. The nationalists bided their time until the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917, when the Ukrainian People's Republic was proclaimed in Kyiv. The new government was unstable and eventually collapsed amongst the chaos wrought by the ongoing Russian Civil War. Ukrainian territory was reorganized as the Ukrainian Soviet Republic in 1919 as part of the Soviet Union. Vladimir Lenin was keen to prevent another resurgence of regional patriotism and creating a new Soviet Republic in Ukraine was a way to suppress the nationalists. While he did believe that national identity should eventually wither away under socialism, he considered Ukrainian a distinct national identity from Russian and should therefore form its own Soviet Socialist Republic within the USSR. The communist victory in the civil war initially saw hopes that Russia's new rulers would be lenient in their treatment of Ukraine. Ukrainian culture was allowed to flourish during the 1920s and Lenin's new economic policy introduced market reforms which helped Ukrainian farmers. Unfortunately, the rise of Joseph Stalin marked the beginning of the darkest chapter in Ukraine's history. Although he was born in Georgia, Stalin was an avowed Russian nationalist and cracked down hard on Ukraine. The Soviets purged the intelligentsia executing authors, scholars, and other leading intellectuals or sending them to gulag labor camps. Stalin was determined to destroy whatever resistance existed to Soviet rule and wipe out Ukrainian national identity. Beginning in 1928, Stalin instituted draconian grain requisition requirements which were ruthlessly enforced by local officials who confiscated what little food was available to farmers. The resulting man-made famine starved between 3 and 5 million Ukrainians to death. As the breadbasket of the Soviet empire, Ukraine was hit especially hard by the famine which came to be known as the Holodomor or death by hunger. There's one way to tell the story of the Holodomor where you say that was a bad time. We all suffered together, but thank goodness we all worked together and beat the Nazis. [music] That's one way to tell the story of the Holodomor. There's another way to tell the story of the Holodomor where you listen to that person make that speech and then stare back at them and say, "You know, that's not how I remember it. The way I remember it is that you starved us." And the you in that sentence has an edgy accusation to it. It can be the Russians, it can be the communists. The Ukrainian Insurgent Army, or UPA, emerged during the Second World War as the armed wing of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists seeking to establish an independent Ukrainian state amid the chaos between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union. Formed in 1942, the UPA operated primarily in Western Ukraine where it waged a guerrilla campaign against both occupying forces, first the Germans and then alongside the Germans against the advancing Red Army. They also targeted local Polish populations in a brutal ethnic conflict, most infamously during the Volhynia massacres of 1943 to '44. After 1945, the Soviets crushed most of the movement through counter-insurgency operations, mass deportations, and infiltration by the NKVD. Although defeated militarily, the UPA became a symbol of armed resistance to Soviet domination, its legacy remaining deeply controversial. Viewed by some Ukrainians as freedom fighters and by others as perpetrators of wartime atrocities. In 1991, Ukraine declared independence upon the downfall of the Soviet Union with 92% of the country voting to form a new nation separate from Russia. Ukrainian statehood had finally been recognized. Yet, the issue of what to do with the Crimean Peninsula remains a source of tension between the two countries. Crimea was incorporated into the Russian Empire in 1783 and allowed Russia and the Soviet Union to dominate the Black Sea from their massive naval base in the port of Sevastopol. In 1954, Soviet General Secretary Nikita Khrushchev transferred administrative control of the peninsula away from the Russian Soviet Republic to the Ukrainian SSR, despite the majority of Crimea's population now being ethnic Russian due to the 1944 deportation of the ethnic Tatars. There were many theories as to why Khrushchev decided on this action, with some historians arguing that it was a ploy to bind Ukraine to Russia forever. Others that he was trying to win political support of the Ukrainian Communist Party for his own gain, and some who insist Khrushchev gave away Crimea because he was fond of Ukraine and as an apology for Russia's previous mistreatment of the Ukrainian people. The fate of the Soviet Union's Black Sea Fleet was a contentious issue as both nations claimed the fleet as their own. Tensions rise after Russia's new parliament questions the constitutionality of giving Crimea to Ukraine in 1954. In 1995, the Ukrainian government reasserted its sovereignty over Crimea and dissolved the self-governing republic, instead turning Crimea into a home rule region as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. A series of diplomatic agreements lessened the tension in the region and paved the way for a peaceful relationship between the two nations. First, the Budapest Memorandum, signed in 1994 by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom, guaranteed Ukraine's sovereignty and existing borders in exchange for its agreement to give up the world's third largest nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union. In return, the signatories pledged to refrain from using force or coercion against Ukraine. Further agreements between Russia and Ukraine over the Black Sea Fleet resulted in a series of compromises which divided the fleet between the two nations and gave Russia a 240-year lease on the Sevastopol naval base. Tensions in Eastern Europe eased as a result of these negotiations and relations between Russia and Ukraine were mostly positive throughout the early 21st century. This begins to change in the mid-2000s as Ukrainian society starts to drift away from Russia and towards the West. Within Ukraine, certainly by the mid-2000s, you have developed a kind of an edgy East-West split around whether or not the special brotherly status with Russia is desirable. The bitter 2004 Ukrainian presidential election resulted in an apparent victory for pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych after his pro-West opponent Viktor Yushchenko was allegedly poisoned by Russian intelligence forces. However, Yanukovych's win was nullified after evidence of fraud and Yushchenko won a rerun of the election. This becomes known as the Orange Revolution and is a serious blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is a former agent of the KGB who rose to power in Russia after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin in 2000. While originally seen as a reformer with pro-Western sympathies, in reality, Putin is a historical revisionist who seeks to grow Russia's sphere of influence and curtail Western ties with former Soviet states. No country is more important to Putin's plan than Ukraine. This is a man, after all, who doesn't really believe that Ukraine is a truly independent state, that sees Ukraine, or at least Eastern Ukraine, really as some kind of semi-detached part of Russia, and more broadly sees Ukraine as rightfully within Russia's sphere of influence. So, any drift westwards was, as far as Putin was concerned, a challenge to him and a challenge to Russia. Putin believes that Ukraine and Russia are one people and actively works to destabilize the country after Yushchenko's election, including offering Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in Crimea. In 2010, Yanukovych runs for president again and wins a close race against another pro-Western candidate, giving Putin the ally in power he has been hoping for. Relations between the two countries under Yanukovych as Kiev aligned itself with Moscow. Despite this realignment, Yanukovych had pledged during the 2010 campaign to sign an association agreement with the European Union, which would deepen ties between the EU and Ukraine. This was a popular choice and Yanukovych won the election in part because of the promise of future collaboration with the West. Yet, Putin sees any Western involvement in former Soviet states, especially Ukraine, as a direct threat to Russia and an attempt to undermine his regime. He puts pressure on Yanukovych to sign an economic pact with Russia instead, which would keep Kiev securely within Moscow's sphere of influence, including waging a vicious trade war that causes industrial production in Ukraine to plunge. In November of 2013, Yanukovych accepts Putin's offer and the EU association agreement is cancelled. The response from the Ukrainian people is immediate. These were countrywide protests, basically over whether or not Yanukovych was going to get away with steering Ukraine's future geopolitically away from a European Western-centric set of institutional promises towards Russia or not. Crowds of angry protesters descend on city squares around the country. Angry not just at the scuttled EU agreement, but also at Yanukovych's increasing authoritarianism and jailing of political opponents. The largest protests take place in Kyiv's Independence Square, which translates to Maidan Nezalezhnosti, leading the nationwide unrest to become known as Euromaidan. Also referred to as the Revolution of Dignity, the protesters demand more political freedoms, closer ties to the EU, and Yanukovych's resignation. The Euromaidan protests hit every city in the country, even in the eastern provinces, where pro-Russian sentiment is higher. A massive encampment springs up in Maidan Square, equipped with kitchens, broadcast stations, and first aid posts, as pro-democracy Ukrainians settle in for a long winter of protesting. The United States takes a wait-and-see approach during the demonstrations. US President Barack Obama is supportive of the pro-democracy movement, but also wary of alienating Russia, and only urges that the Ukrainian government exercises restraint. On the 4th of February, 2014, a recording of a leaked phone call between US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt and Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Victoria Nuland is posted on YouTube. Nuland and Pyatt are discussing President Yanukovych's pledge during negotiations to include two opposition figures in his government, along with other opinions on who would be best for those roles. Nuland is also caught on the recording disparaging the European Union's reaction to the crisis in Ukraine. Almost certainly leaked by Russian intelligence, the Kremlin seizes on the call as evidence that the United States is meddling in Ukrainian affairs. While it is true that Nuland is a long-time and public supporter of Ukrainian democracy, she was not the architect of the Euromaidan process as asserted by Moscow. This phone call takes place months after the protests began, at a time when the Yanukovych regime is already teetering. Russian propaganda outlets post and continue to push that it preceded the protests to create the story that it was a Western-backed revolution. Euromaidan was exceedingly likely not a Western-backed revolution or coup, but this is a convenient story for the Russian narrative. It is important to note this point in order to better understand this conflict. Yanukovych panics in the face of widespread civil unrest and decides to crush Euromaidan. The Ukrainian president manages to make the situation worse by ordering riot police to use force against the protesters. Pro-government agent provocateurs, nicknamed Titushky, infiltrate the Euromaidan crowds to incite more violence, and several peaceful protesters are killed. Ukrainian riot police units employ deadly tactics to clear out protesters, which further tarnishes the government's reputation. Yanukovych's actions backfire and cause the previously fractured opposition to band together against his rule. The protest and violence spreads throughout the country, including the industrial region of the Donbas, causing pro-Russian counter-protesters to join the fray. The one part of the country that has an anti-Maidan protest vibe, lots of people on the streets protesting against Maidan, but doesn't have a pro-Maidan protest movement, no ground game, is Crimea. The parts of the country that have mostly pro-Maidan, but very little anti-Maidan, are the western Ukrainian regions around [music] Lviv. Crimea is caught in the middle of this civil strife and facing an uncertain future. President Yanukovych's declaration of a state of emergency on the 18th of February puts Crimean Prime Minister Anatoliy Mohyliov in a difficult position. Pro-Russian nationalists have also taken to the streets in Simferopol and Sevastopol to demand a union with Russia. Vladimir Putin has taken a keen interest in the situation, and orders Russian units in Crimea to increase their military readiness. He senses an opportunity to return the region to what he believes is its rightful owner. Although the peninsula legally belongs to Ukraine, there are almost 20,000 Russian military personnel present in the region compared to 26,000 members of the Ukrainian armed forces. On the 18th of February, over 50,000 protesters gather in Kyiv to pressure the government to restore the 2004 Constitution, which was repealed following Yanukovych's election as president. The riot police open fire on protesters, causing the capital to descend into chaos. Over the next 48 hours, gun battles erupt between Ukrainian nationalist militia and the police, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people, including 13 policemen. Over 1,100 people are injured. As a result of the violence, Yanukovych meets with the leaders of the opposition on the 21st of February. He finally relents and agrees to political reforms along with new elections, but the announcement of these steps does not stop the protests. Instead, government security forces in Kyiv abandon their posts and either desert or join the protesters. With Kyiv now under the control of the Euromaidan movement, President Yanukovych decides he must flee the country to Moscow with help from the Russian GRU. At least one of the perpetrators of the 2018 Novichok attack on the Skripal family in Salisbury in the UK will be involved in his rescue. Putin gathers his closest advisers in the Kremlin on the night of the 22nd of February to figure out how to evacuate the Ukrainian president, but ends the meeting with a different topic. After dealing with the issue of Yanukovych, Putin tells his advisers, "We must start working on returning Crimea to Russia." The following day, Yanukovych secretly leaves the country for Moscow without informing the Ukrainian parliament. The parliament convenes an emergency session where the 2004 constitution is reinstated and Yanukovych is removed from office by a vote of 328 to nil. An interim government led by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk takes power and schedules new elections in May. Furthermore, the Berkut police unit is abolished and political prisoners are released. The revolution of dignity has succeeded. Despite these measures, Ukrainian government authority outside of the capital has essentially collapsed. Counter protests by furious Russian nationalists continue to pop up in the Donbas region where loyalist Ukrainian police and military units are unable to respond to the increasing unrest. Meanwhile, the Russian forces in Crimea have been brought to full readiness while pro-Russian elements are beginning to mobilize. An anti-Euromaidan rally in Sevastopol on the 23rd of February draws almost 50,000 people and elects a pro-Russian so-called people's mayor along with a rival local government. Ukrainian naval officers relay worrying reports on increased Russian activity to Kiev including the distribution of weapons to pro-Moscow militia. However, the head of Ukrainian intelligence in Crimea waters down these reports and will later defect to Russia. Also on the 23rd, Crimean Prime Minister Mohilyov announces that he will follow orders from the interim government in Kiev. In response, a crowd of 200 pro-Russian protesters gathers in front of the local mayor's office in the city of Kerch. The crowd attempts to storm the office to take down the Ukrainian flag but are confronted by dozens of Crimean Tatars. A brawl ensues between the protesters and the Tatars who are an ethnic group indigenous to the region dating back to the Bronze Age. During the Second World War, Stalin deported almost 200,000 Tatars to Central Russia, where some historians estimate that almost 13% of them died. The Tatars were allowed to return to Crimea in 1989, but they vehemently opposed to any Russian occupation of the peninsula. The protesters are driven off and the Ukrainian flag remains above Kerch. The situation across Crimea continues to deteriorate following Prime Minister Molyvos' announcement. Dueling crowds of protesters gather around the peninsula with some urging for a Russian intervention, while others support Euromaidan. Despite the obvious danger lurking, Ukrainian acting Internal Affairs Minister Arsen Avakov naively insists that the crisis can be solved without provoking a wider conflict, telling Crimean police that, "I think through a dialogue, we shall achieve much more than with standoffs." The Kiev government remains blissfully unaware that the Ukrainian state is about to lose a sovereign piece of its territory. Meanwhile, preparations for Russia's invasion are proceeding quickly. Units from the 31st Separate Airborne Assault Brigade, the 431st Naval Reconnaissance Special Designation Unit, and the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade begin setting up military checkpoints throughout Southern Crimea. Beginning on the night of the 22nd of February, the elite Spetsnaz paratrooper unit 45th Independent Regiment, along with the 16th Spetsnaz Brigade, and elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division secretly arrive at the Russian naval base in Sevastopol and the nearby base at Anapa. While this is happening, the Russian government is accelerating their efforts at destabilizing the Ukrainian position in Crimea. A delegation from Moscow arrives in Simferopol on the 24th of February to urge pro-Russian politicians to break with Kiev and support an invasion by Putin. Federal Security Service, better known as the FSB, recruits local mafia members, motorcycle gangs, veterans from the Soviet-Afghan War, and other auxiliaries to gather intelligence on the ground while stirring up trouble as provocateurs. It is very important for Moscow to use proxies to do most of the work for them and allow the Russian government plausible deniability. Igor Girkin is a senior security officer for a Russian oligarch and one of the men recruited to cause chaos in Crimea. Going by the call sign Strelkov, Girkin organizes volunteer squads to gather weaponry in case the situation turns violent. He will later play a critical role in the war in the Donbas. The following day, Russian forces seized Simferopol Airport in anticipation for the larger invasion. In this chaos, on February 24th, Igor Mosiychuk made a boastful declaration on a television show in Kiev. He opined that if the Ukrainian government was unable to stem separatist sentiment on Crimea, Pravy Sektor, which was at the time the most visible radical group on Maidan, would send a {quote} "friendship train" {unquote} of militants to Crimea to frighten those people who are calling for the destruction of my country. Just a few days later, on February 27th, as Russian special forces are securing Crimea's parliament, Russian media fabricated the claim that a train carrying 1,500 Pravy Sektor activists to Simferopol had been intercepted and that a stockpile of weapons, wooden sticks, Molotov cocktails, guns, and ammo had been found. Now, there never was such a train. That was totally fabricated. But, it shows that there's a sophisticated Russian attempt to shape the information space at the same time that they're moving. The crisis comes to a head on the 26th of February. The Crimean Parliament building in Simferopol is besieged by thousands of demonstrators from both sides of the conflict with pro-Russia protesters pushing for annexation while the pro-Euromaidan faction demands loyalty to Ukraine. The standoff drags on into the middle of the night until the parliament announces it will not take any action on joining Russia. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government has been debating a law that would revoke Russian as the official second language in many parts of the country. Although intended to boost Ukrainian patriotism in this trying time, the move backfires and only convinces Russian nationalists that the Kiev government is looking to eliminate Russian identity. The events of this day are enough for Putin to decide that now is the time to make his move in Crimea. The crowds in Simferopol begin to disperse, but the invasion is now in motion. That evening, the recently installed pro-Russian mayor of Sevastopol orders the city's Berkut unit to establish three checkpoints on key roads leading into the peninsula. Although the Berkut police unit has been officially disbanded by the new Ukrainian government, many of these riot police units decide to defect to Russia instead. These defectors stop and check vehicles while keeping an eye open for any Ukrainian military units on the road in Crimea. Another checkpoint is established by Russian troops on the main road from Simferopol to Sevastopol while 10 Il-76 transport aircraft deliver paratroopers from the 76th division to Simferopol Airport. Furthermore, the Russian Western and Central Military Districts bordering Ukraine are placed on high alert as a warning to the government in Kiev. GAZ STS Tiger infantry mobility vehicles, Ural military trucks, and armored personnel carrier vehicles move in stopping occasionally to allow masked men with no insignia or identification and carrying weapons to dismount. These so-called little green men waste no time in seizing Crimean TV and radio centers, the Yalta TV and radio station, and the local radio station in Simferopol. Spetsnaz troops without insignia seize Crimea's internet exchange and telecommunication centers to sever connection with the Ukrainian mainland. Russian military intelligence launches a cyber attack on the Ukrainian government to sow chaos and disinformation in Kyiv. Government websites are shut down or defaced, and politicians' phones are jammed or hacked by agencies such as the FSB and the GRU. A sophisticated hacking program has been implanted into Ukrainian government systems years prior and is now activated, wiping out information and implanting malicious software in its place. At 4:00 a.m. on the 27th of February, Russian soldiers leave their bases and begin patrolling the streets of Simferopol. Joining up with local militias, the Russians seize the Supreme Council and Council of Ministers buildings in the center of the Crimean capital. The Russian flag is raised above the Crimean Parliament building with naval infantry, paratroopers, and auxiliaries setting up barricades. Ukrainian military bases on the peninsula are blockaded with Russian infantry blocking the main gates with their armored vehicles. There are a handful of clashes between police loyal to the government and pro-Russian militia, but no shooting. The Russians call an extraordinary session of the Crimean legislature. Igor Girkin's militia escorts 64 Russia-friendly or neutral politicians into the chamber with Russian naval infantry looking on. These politicians declare Euromaidan to be an unconstitutional coup and removes Prime Minister Mohilyov from office, replacing him with Sergey Aksyonov, the head of the pro-annexation Russian Unity Party. Despite Aksyonov's party only receiving 4% of the vote in the previous election, the legislatures are coerced by the little green men holding guns into supporting his new regime. Although local interior troops from the Ukrainian armed forces are placed on alert, Kiev has been thrown into disarray and is unable to respond effectively to the invasion. The Ukrainian people are just as bewildered by the sudden change in events. Those with family members in Crimea are suddenly cut off from their relatives as the chaotic situation escalates. Yet, it does not take long before the Ukrainian nation understands what is happening and who the perpetrator of this invasion is. TV correspondent Roman Bochkala presents the situation in blunt terms. Negotiations are underway in the military units of Crimea. The Russian military has turned up and is demanding that commanders submit to the Crimean government. And given who heads it, in practice, that means Moscow. The goal is to remove the army from Kiev's control. The good news is that if this happens, there will be no war. The bad news, Ukraine will have lost Crimea. Russian reinforcements continue to pour into the peninsula. The Ukrainian military outnumbers the Russians in the region, making speed a critical component for the operation. In the afternoon, the Ropucha class large landing ship Azov docks in Sevastopol and unloads the 382nd Independent Naval Infantry Battalion along with BTR-82 armored personnel carriers. All public airports are seized by the Russian forces to allow more troops to be airlifted into the peninsula. Berkut police units armed with BTR-60 APCs block the roads leading into Crimea from the streets of Perekop under the guise of preventing Ukrainian nationalists from invading. Later that evening, the Ukrainian military base at Belbek is surrounded by Russian forces, trapping two squadrons of MiG-29 fighters of the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade. Everyone could see the little green men moving around in uniforms without insignia on scene. While that's happening, you have Russian diplomats who will look straight into the camera and say, "We have no idea who those people are. I think they might be North Koreans or Al-Qaeda terrorists." You know, I hear those guys are everywhere. So, this is important because it's not just trolling, although it was that, too. It was meant to gum up and slow down the Western diplomatic response. And it completely worked, actually. The following day sees an even larger influx of Russian troops into Crimea. 14 more Il-76 transports deliver 1,500 troops to an air base near Simferopol, while the large landing ships Kaliningrad and Minsk dock in Sevastopol, carrying the 10th Spetsnaz Brigade. 11 combat helicopters land at Kacha air base north of Sevastopol, while more transports are being prepared at Anapa air base and the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The civilian Kerch ferry crossing on the eastern end of the peninsula is also swiftly captured by Russian forces. Within hours, ferries carrying armored vehicles and military supplies are seen landing in Kerch. One of the Ukrainian customs officers later recalled, "What the hell could we have done? There were four of us on duty with automatic pistols. Were we going to hold up a tank?" Russian forces continue to consolidate their position in Crimea over the next week, while the Ukrainian government remains paralyzed. By the 1st of March, the centers of all major cities in the peninsula are under Russian control, and all officials loyal to the Kyiv government have been ousted from their positions. Although the Russian forces in Crimea are thinly stretched and vulnerable, the Ukrainian army is in no condition to attempt to reclaim the region. Ukrainian Defense Minister Ihor Tenyukh estimates that while the army has a total strength of 41,000 soldiers which could be deployed against the 20,000 Russians in Crimea, only 6,000 men are actually combat effective. The situation in the air force is even worse with only 10% of personnel combat ready and 15% of combat aircraft airworthy. Yet, there are some attempts at passive resistance from the besieged Ukrainian forces. On the 3rd of March, four helicopters and three aircraft from the trapped 10th Saki Naval Aviation Brigade take off and fly to Ukraine with no shots fired from the Russians. To prevent similar escapes, Russian soldiers park Kamaz trucks across the runways of other Ukrainian bases. Another confrontation takes place on the same day at the Ukrainian Coast Guard base in Balaklava. Four Tiger LMVs drive up to the main entrance and blockade the base while the Russian missile corvette Ivanovets parks itself at the entrance of Balaklava Bay. Nonetheless, the sailors of the Ukrainian 5th Sea Guard Brigade decide to make a break for open sea in their lightly armed patrol boats. The Ukrainian vessels approach the Ivanovets and are ordered to stop immediately or the Russians will open fire. The patrol boats would stand no chance against the much more heavily armored Ivanovets. However, the corvette's threatening messages are a bluff as Putin has strictly forbidden escalation. The Ukrainians ignore the warning and break out to Odessa. Perhaps the most dramatic scene of the invasion takes place at Belbek airbase. The Russians demand that Colonel Yuliy Mamchur, commander of the Sevastopol Brigade of Tactical Aviation, surrender the airbase on the 3rd of March. The following day, Mamchur orders 100 men of the Ukrainian 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade to leave their weapons behind and leads them out of the front gates. Carrying the Soviet Red Victory Flag of the Second World War, Mamchur and his men march up to the Russian checkpoint near the air base. The Russian soldiers fire warning shots, but Mamchur coolly ignores the danger and continues forth. The Russian commander orders his men to hold their fire, afraid of starting a violent confrontation. Mamchur approaches him and politely but firmly denies the Russian ultimatum for surrender, stating, "It is our duty to safeguard the constitution of Ukraine in keeping this base." The Russians back down and Belbek air base remains in Ukrainian hands for another 18 days. Now begins an awkward waiting phase with thousands of Ukrainian servicemen stranded in bases across Crimea while the peninsula falls under the control of Moscow. The Russian forces blockading these bases simply wait out the besieged Ukrainians until they either surrender or run out of supplies. A Russian paratrooper later explains, "We knew that if we came in guns blazing, then the Ukrainians would instinctively fire back. So, we kept our distance, stopped them from deploying, and waited for backup." The men trapped in these bases mostly have good local leadership, but there are still no orders from Kyiv. Colonel Yuliy Mamchur pleads for clear orders from the government. Above all else, he is seeking permission to use lethal force if his men are attacked by the Russians or their auxiliaries. Yet, the government paralysis means Mamchur and the other Ukrainian commanders in Crimea receive only silence in return. The global reaction to the seizure of Crimea is also contributing to the lack of action from Kyiv. The new government has very little leverage and its Western allies are pushing for caution. While some nationalist politicians urge for a more forceful response against the invasion, there are now 150,000 Russian servicemen poised on the eastern borders of Ukraine, meaning an all-out war would almost certainly result in the country being defeated. While some ground forces have been shifted towards the Crimean region, most of the Ukrainian military remains inert. With limited options, Kiev advises its troops in Crimea to avoid provoking the Russians and announces it will negotiate for more regional autonomy. Apparently, the new government is slow to recognize that Moscow is now the sole decision-maker in Crimea. The next step for Putin is to officially reincorporate the territory into the Russian Federation. On the 6th of March, the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea decides to hold a referendum on joining Russia in just 10 days. Despite Crimea's historic connection to Russia, an overwhelming yes vote is not a guaranteed outcome. The peninsula's population is 60% ethnic Russian compared to 24% Ukrainian. However, a May 2013 opinion poll revealed that 53% of respondents preferred being part of Ukraine compared to 23% which preferred Russia. Russian citizenship is seen by most Crimeans as unnecessary and pointless considering Crimea already has home rule. However, the presence of Russian soldiers with weapons at polling places and the complete lack of international observers makes the vote a foregone conclusion. The official results show 83% turnout with a 97% vote in favor of joining Russia despite outcries of an illegitimate process. The Ukrainian parliament vows that Crimea was, is, and will be part of Ukraine. The Ukrainian people will never under any circumstances stop fighting for the liberation of Crimea. Five days later on the 21st of March, Vladimir Putin approves the annexation with a stroke of a pen. Two months later on the 4th of May, an online report is accidentally posted online by the Russian Council on Civil Society and Human Rights, which reveals the true results of the sham referendum. The report concluded that voter turnout was only 30% and even after physical intimidation by soldiers, the real number of those who voted in favor of annexation was between 50 and 60%, not 97%. Support for the annexation in Crimea is far less than what the Russian government has claimed. Regardless, there are thousands of Ukrainian service members trapped on what is now Russian territory and tensions are close to boiling over in some places on the ground. On the 18th of March, a platoon of militia commanded by Igor Girkin attempts to force their way into a Ukrainian naval installation in Simferopol. When the naval guards refuse them entry, a group of militia attempt to scale the compound's walls. Ukrainian ensign Serhiy Kokurin orders the men to stop, but is ignored. It is not known who fired first, but shots ring out as both sides seek cover. Kokurin and one militiaman are killed and two more men are wounded. Following the firefight, the Ukrainian commander decides to surrender the building and the situation does not escalate further. Serhiy Kokurin is considered the first military casualty of the still ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War. The largest Ukrainian naval force in Crimea is the 5th Surface Ships Brigade anchored inside Donuzlav Bay. The 12 ships of the brigade have been trapped in the bay by a five-ship naval task force led by the Slava class cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Faced with overwhelming firepower, most of the remaining ships surrender over the next 20 days. Only the minesweeper Cherkasy remains at large, weaving around Donuzlav Bay to avoid being cornered by the Russian warships giving chase. On the 21st of March, men from the Russian special operations forces command storm the headquarters of the Ukrainian first independent naval infantry battalion in Feodosia. The approximately 900 Ukrainian marines here are elite troops under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Delyatitsky, who have barricaded themselves inside their barracks rather than surrender their weapons. Mi-8M transport helicopters land Russian special forces operators in the base's parade grounds, while Mi-35 attack helicopters provide air cover. Once on the ground, operators use GM-94 pump-action grenade launchers to fire smoke and stun grenades through the windows of the barracks. Some Ukrainian marines exit the building to confront the Russians, but are forced to surrender when the operators fire warning shots. Meanwhile, two BTR-82As smash through the compound gates and clear the way for 80 militiamen to reinforce the operators. The combined Russian force gathers in the parade ground in front of the barracks and demands the Ukrainians to surrender, but this is ignored. The Russians instead break into the barracks and begin brawling with the Ukrainian naval infantry. Despite the standoff, neither side is seeking a deadly escalation and use non-lethal means to fight each other instead of using their firearms. The result was a rolling and epic series of brawls that lasted a couple of hours as the Russians worked their way through the barracks. Eventually, the base was taken with no more than a lot of bruises and some broken bones on both sides. Lieutenant Colonel Delyatitsky himself, who'd been at the forefront of the melee, suffered three broken ribs, but became something of a legend among Ukrainian and Russian soldiers alike. The last remaining holdout is the 204th Tactical Aviation Brigade in Belbek. A day after the capture of the base in Feodosia, six BTR-82s destroy a concrete perimeter wall and enter the base area, followed by Russian Naval Infantry. Unlike in Feodosia, there are no brawls and the Ukrainians surrender at gunpoint. Colonel Yuliy Mamchur is taken into custody and held in solitary confinement for 3 days before he is released. His bold stand and calm demeanor throughout the crisis makes him a national hero in Ukraine and he will be elected to the Ukrainian Parliament in October of 2014. Mamchur is one of six senior Ukrainian officers in Crimea who refused to join the Russian military and are eventually repatriated back to Ukraine. By the end of the 22nd of March, all 193 bases of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Crimea are under Russian control. In Donuzlav Bay, only the Ukrainian minesweeper Cherkasy remains defiant. Her skipper, Captain Yuriy Fedash, has been sailing the ship around the bay for 3 days straight to avoid becoming an easy target and even made two attempts to break out into the Black Sea. On the evening of the 25th of March, the Russians decide to storm the ship. Speedboats pull alongside the Cherkasy and Russian Naval Infantry attempts to board. The Ukrainian sailors fight back and throw smoke grenades and improvised explosives, driving off the speedboats. The wild chase continues for hours on end as the Ukrainians continue to hold off Russian boarding parties. Eventually, two Mi-35 helicopters hover close enough to the minesweeper for Spetsnaz commandos to rappel onto the ship's deck. With the situation hopeless, Bedash surrenders the ship and the crew is taken into custody. The last act of Ukrainian defiance in Crimea has been snuffed out. After years of his approval rating sagging due to economic troubles, Putin's popularity rises considerably following the annexation and he now sports approval ratings of over 80%. In Russia, the annexation is widely seen as righting a historical wrong by returning former territory to its rightful owner. Emboldened by his success in Crimea, he decides to push his luck and try to seize more of Ukraine. Putin gives his blessing to pro-Russian elements in eastern Ukraine to rise up against the weak central government and repeat the process of annexation. On the 14th of April, a heavily armed group of militants led by Igor Girkin attacks the city of Sloviansk in Donbas. The war in Donbas has begun. The successful seizure of Crimea is one of the first examples of modern asymmetric war or political warfare as coined by American Cold War strategist George Kennan. Kennan argues that this strategy is the employment of all the means at a nation's command short of war to achieve its national objectives. Such operations range from such overt actions as political alliances, economic measures, and white propaganda to such covert operations as clandestine support of friendly foreign elements, black psychological warfare, and even encouragement of underground resistance in hostile states. This is also sometimes referred to as gray zone warfare where conflicts are fought in the space between peace and full warfare. The Russian military adopted this strategy following a series of political revolutions in post-Soviet nations which deposed pro-Russian heads of state during the 2000s. Its leadership believed it was copying the West's tactics. As one Russian think tanker close to the Kremlin put it to the author, "We see the hand of the CIA in this mischief." The fact that many of the regimes facing such revolutions were allies of Moscow, or at least customers for its weapons, was considered proof enough. Having assumed the West had been toppling its allies with clandestine tactics, the Russians have pioneered their own hybrid warfare to do the same. Crimea itself becomes one of the most vital strongholds in the newly enlarged Russian Federation. The Russian military immediately begins a massive build-up on the peninsula, which will become a main base of operations for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The Crimean ethnic Tatar and Ukrainian minorities now find themselves without protection and face discrimination by the new administration. The peninsula is soon awash with reports of forced disappearances, torture, and arbitrary arrests against the Tatars. The most important consequence of the invasion is a fatal breakdown in relations between Russia and Ukraine. The first presidential election in Ukraine since Euromaidan is won in a landslide by Petro Poroshenko, a pro-Western billionaire and Ukrainian nationalist. Poroshenko resolutely sets his country on a path of further integration with the West and works to improve Ukraine's military capabilities. With its vulnerabilities laid bare by the seizure of Crimea, the Armed Forces of Ukraine undergo a massive reorganization over the next 5 years. The AFU moves away from the old Soviet military model and begins rebuilding the Ukrainian military more in the image of NATO countries and re-equips with Western equipment. The low-intensity war in the Donbas region also gives the AFU valuable experience in modern warfare and it soon develops a highly professional army. In 2022, it will be called upon to defend Ukraine in a war for its survival. Although their shared history has been marked by periods of bloodshed and turmoil, Russians and Ukrainians have generally seen each other as part of an Eastern European brotherhood. Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in May of 2013 indicates that 88% of Ukrainians had a positive opinion of Russia. Yet, that number plunges to 51% by the end of 2014, and then 30% in mid-2015. Consequently, the number of Ukrainians who approve of the West skyrockets as the country moves decisively away from Moscow's sphere of influence. Polling in December of 2012 shows that only 15% of Ukrainians supported NATO membership, an all-time low. The same survey, taken just 3 years later, indicates a complete reversal with 75% wanting to join NATO. This is a pawn for a queen trade. As a Stanford mentor of mine once said. By removing all the votes from Crimea, and then removing even more later in the Eastern Donbas, you make it hard, and some would say you make it mathematically impossible to get a version of Ukraine with the {quote} real Ukrainians by the Russian definition in a dominant position. It's going to take a while for that to sink in. It's going to take Zelenskyy to win, and for Putin to realize that even when someone from the East wins, the East doesn't mean what it used to mean. That takes five five or six years. But once it sinks in, Putin realizes that he has to choose between breaking Ukraine and letting it go. And he can't let it go. The bloodless annexation of Crimea convinces Putin that Ukraine is a house of cards that will collapse with one more blow. In his eyes, Russia's success in poaching Crimea acts as a blueprint for future operations to destabilize Ukraine. He authorizes his military to covertly support the pro-Russian rebels in the Donbas with weapons and funding. However, the Ukrainian state proves to be more resilient than Putin expects and fights back against the uprising. Even in its weakened condition, the Ukrainian armed forces manage to halt the rebel advance and even defeat pro-Russian forces in several engagements. The war in the Donbas is fought to a stalemate within a year and the conflict becomes frozen while both sides consider their next moves. The battle for the fate of Ukraine and its people is only just beginning. Thanks again to Professor Mark Galeotti, author of Putin Takes Crimea 2014, Gray Zone Warfare Opens the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. And to Jessica Drisco, Professor of Political Science in the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California, San Diego and author of Ukraine's Unnamed War Before the Russian Invasion of 2022 and co-author with Dominique Arel, Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa.