Rejuvenation: Risk - In Reality

[Music] hi everybody Eve harrow December 26 2018 still at Linwood and with my guy on anything having to do with Syria Jonathan spire I've interviewed him before but for those of you who are new to rejuvenation he is as far as I'm concerned like the expert on Syria if you have any other suggestions you're welcome to write to me but for now we're gonna go with this so he's also at Lima this week and has been talking as his position is about the Middle East so Jonathan thanks so much for joining me today hello it's nice to see you again so first of all what are the reactions here to the sessions that you've been giving because Lee mode is not known for necessarily seeing the Middle East the way you and I might see it yeah I've actually been quite generally pleasantly surprised I was I don't think I've had any really negative responses or so I I think because you know to some degree if you really just place the facts before people you know then and you can cover that with real intricacy in detail I think many people who maybe you know maybe just even feel a bit guilty about trying to counter that by having some sort of illusory you know suggestion so but the other reason I think also frankly is because I don't I I almost deliberately don't particularly deal with what would generally be called the israeli-palestinian conflict because I find that there you have all these red lines and all these hot buttons and everyone knows exactly what needs to be done and everyone instantly becomes an expert and everybody suddenly knows everything about the Middle East so I find that's fine I actually find that an interesting and good way sometimes to educate people about the israeli-palestinian dynamic is actually just start with the broader region and to look at the Arab world Arab politics Islamist politics maybe in context which people aren't so prejudiced about and don't so suddenly get all upset about and then you can maybe suggest to them gently well hey okay if you're looking at Iraq in that way if you if you think you've learned something about Syria from talking about this stuff about the role of Islamism about the role of political Islam about the way in which in the Arab world when politics goes down to street level it's almost always political Islam that wins out if you kind of think that's true and you found that convincing in the Syrian context well maybe that might also be applicable to you know to thinking another way about what's happening west of the Jordan River you know I'm not in business in order to do that but I would find that that might be a useful way to approach it in any case talking about Syria talking about Iraq to a Jewish audience you know it's just much less emotive for people so even with people who might have views that we would regard as naive and misguided regarding you know events in engineering Samaria or in Jerusalem they can sometimes have at least reasoned discussion about their issues and events elsewhere so as a former bridge which my audience are very intelligent and they might have picked up on your accent what's it like for you coming back specifically to England is it any different than anywhere else that you speak or are you a little more in tune perhaps for the audience because you know how they're thinking and you were raised in the same kind of culture that the audience is in this interesting question yeah I suppose maybe I am but it's not something I give a huge amount of thought to to be honest but I you know most of the time I find when I'm speaking in my general work to english-speaking audiences it generally it's quite rare for it to be people from the UK I mean I speak a lot of course to American audiences Canadians Australians New Zealanders and for whatever reason it's generally less to people from the UK it's not the usual thing for me so yeah I mean it's fine to do of course there's cultural you know common reference points and so on but I don't think there's anything beyond that at least for me personally as I haven't lived in the UK now for nearly 30 years it's quite a long time the UK itself has changed in that time I've certainly changed too so you know it's not so if there isn't some sort of sense of a glorious homecoming or something but on the other hand you know yeah sure I suppose there are cultural reference points that we that we share but I'm not sure if when talking about the issues which we're discussing here whether that really comes into play you know if you're talking about Syria if we're talking about Iran to talk about the Middle East you know these the the fact that you know I was born in the UK and can grow up in the UK and so to most of the folks in the audience in this event it doesn't really impact so much in that discussion you know if we were talking about the UK or talking about no culture of the UK and then of course they would but it's all about Syria Iraq Iran less so I would say so as opposed to a lot of other journalists you actually go to the areas when was the last time that you were anywhere near Syria well I was in reporting in Iraq about three weeks ago so then we were pretty close to the Syrian border at times but the stories we were doing were not on that occasion to do with Syria because often many times I've entered Syria from Iraq but in this occasion it was there was two different stories one of which took me actually in the opposite direction from Syria when in northern Iraq ie eastwards towards the border with Iran and that was because we were doing a story on Iranian Kurdish armed groups who are fighting against the Iranian regime and then the other story was the attempt by Isis to re-establish itself in parts of central Iraq so these were two kind of Iraq / Iran censored story so Syria was a little bit kind of left aside on that occasion but that was the last piece of of regional reporting which I did which is kind of given birth or led to a whole bunch of I think quite interesting articles coming out of that so I'm happy with that where can my audience read you well if we take that recent trip as an example so there was two articles in a publication called jane's intelligence review which came out of that trip one as I said on the Iranian Kurdistan so to see the other on the return of Isis to Iraq unfortunately jane's intelligence review or the IHS Jane's group in general charged quite a bit for a subscription it's mainly sort of professionals in the defense and intelligence industries who who belong to to that so probably your unless your readers want to fork out around $700 for an annual membership just to read my articles which I imagine they probably do not that I'm afraid is not the best destination probably there was a piece in The Wall Street Journal also which came out about the Isis stuff a couple of weeks ago so that's findable the easiest way to find my stuff in general if people are interested it's just to go to my website which is Jonathan spire calm because basically unless there's a reason a paywall issue which means I can't do it basically I put all my published articles up at that website that's what it is it's just an archive of published articles so it's a good place if anybody's interested to go and take a look so of course the burning question now is Trump and the imminent or so he says pull out of the American troops in Syria what are your thoughts on that yeah I have to say I was very disappointed to hear the president's announcement on December 19th because I think many of us had had the the notion that the Trump administration and indeed with only the degree of you know of proof that the Trump administration was getting into the business of taking very seriously the need to contain and roll back the gains made by Iran and its allies in the region over the last decade and there's been plenty to be encouraged in that regard obviously the decision to withdraw from the jcpoa the subsequent statement by Secretary of State Pompeo laying out 12 conditions which the Iranians would need to comply with to get themselves a new nuclear deal and most of those conditions didn't relate to nuclear activity specifically but rather to Iranian activity in the region and then of course the subsequent Rhian position of sanctions on the energy sector in November fourth all good stuff and there was a sense of that was coming together and crystallizing the much-needed American leadership of any anti ran regional coalition which would include Israel of course United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and other players I'm afraid that the announcement of the semi nineteen's to some degree kind of you know muddies that and confuses and complicates that picture because it is a fact at least in my estimation that there was draw of United States forces from the 30% of Syria which they currently kind of guarantee control of will be a may will be and is being seen as a very major gift to Islamic Republic of Iran to the Assad regime of course to Turkey also and also to Russia that has to say to all the enemies of the West who are currently assembled in our neighborhood this is kind of a free gift now I get it we shouldn't be surprised by it it's not that President Trump is suddenly doing something that nobody could possibly have predicted he might have wanted to do on the contrary this absolutely in keeping with the kind of promises he made on the campaign trail where his I'm not quoting directly where his you know his his general perspective on these kind of commitments was well we spend a great deal of money and sometimes a great deal of blood and these overseas commitments we don't seem to get anything out of it nobody's grateful to us for it let's bring the troops home that has a certain amount or a lot I think of resonance among Trump's kind of core voting public that's clearly the way that he looks at things in April he did say that the US troops will be out by the end of the year at the end of 2018 so there's plenty of precedent for this but after April we heard a whole series of statements by national security adviser John Bolton and Secretary of State Pompeo again and the special envoy in Syria Jim Jeffrey all of which seemed to indicate that actually now the u.s. changed its view it was folding the operation in eastern Syria into a broader and Tyrande strategy to that now appears to have been abruptly reversed and that's not encouraging in my view so from conversations you and I have had over the years I know that you feel a tremendous connection to the Kurds and that one of the main issues that you have is seeing how they're getting pretty much killed by everybody and that this is a people that like Israel wants their own state wants to carve out doesn't want to hurt anybody else is just trying to carve out a life for themselves how do you think this is all going to affect them well I'm afraid to say that you know the people in Syrian Kurdistan now you know obviously very upset and very worried about the future affecting them after the announcement of December 19th because we're already seeing the massive the massing of our Turkish troops on the border close to the town of of mend äj-- with their Syrian Sunni Arab rebel allies we're also seeing regime forces for the South coming up close to the border so it's almost like everybody's now kind of chomping at the bit to try and come in there and take over the area that the Kurds have sort of carved out with American assistance over the last half decade effectively and it's a worrying thing because you know this is a whole big population there's nearly four million people living in that area it's not a negligible population and they if we look at the precedent which already exists which is the Turkish which was the Turkish destruction in January of this year of the Afrin canton kurdish canton further west then I'm afraid it's a very worrying precedent indeed because in that area there's been forced Islamization there's been expulsion of people from their homes has been a kind of low-grade ethnic cleansing of Kurds taking place so if that takes place on a larger scale as may happen if the Turks come in and that's gonna be you know very worrying indeed there's it's also not only a question of course of of sentiment and as Henry Kissinger once famously said you know foreign policy is not a School of Social Work you know and it's not more needs to be able to differentiate between the two but the thing is that there is also I think a practical element to this which is the United States and like other countries you know will need once again in years ahead to have allies and to work with other forces inside the region and there is a growing sense that America is not a reliable ally and that's not just a question of sentiment that means next time you want to work with somebody I mean when America wants to work with somebody that somebody may well you know do their calculation and go enemy but aren't you the guys who work with people and then six months later and leave them to be slaughtered by their enemies oh well I think I won't work with you after all I think that Iran and Russia maybe have a better track record of you know sticking with their allies so I think I'll go and work with them that's very bad if people start to think in those terms that's kind of like a devaluing of what we might call the American strategic coin strategic currency in the region and that's not a good thing and that's not a good thing that should happen it's not good for the United States itself it's not good for the West and it's not good for Western allies in the region such as Israel the fact of the matter is was a very strong country so at the end of the day if as appears to maybe be the case America is kind of retreating from its role as hegemon from its role as as guarantor of Middle East security Americans maybe no longer want to underwrite a Pax Americana if one could put it that way in the Middle East and that's absolutely their right the only u.s. armed forces belong to America citizens and they can choose to use them as they wish if they no longer wish to play that role then that's you know detrimental to US allies in the region but it's most detrimental to the weakest among us allies and least detrimental to the strongest and Israel is perhaps the strongest American ally in the region that can say okay if the American to be around here anymore we nevertheless most of the time almost always can look after our own security where there are an armed forces so it's not something terrible but it's certainly not something to be celebrated I would say so that weakening of American deterrence though actually started a few years ago with Obama and so you're saying here is that Trump is in some way continuing what Obama did you're noise the Obama of course was the beginning of this and with Obama it was very clear that what Obama wants it was tempted to get out of the region and leave it as it turns out what Obama intended to do was to increase the strength of Islamic Republic of Iran disastrously a disastrous thought in my estimation but that's I think what he wanted to do in order to balance the Iranians against the Saudis and Israel and then leave what he imagined would be a kind of balance of power in the region completely deluded of course but that I think is a fair characterization of what the Obama administration wanted to achieve in the Middle East through the jcpoa you know the nuclear deal and so on and so forth Trump don't think has any ideas like that Trump clearly does not trust Iran and Trump's instincts of good regarding Iran but the thing is what that does appear to be in the administration is a kind of contradiction but you know the one had some very very sound strategic thinking regarding Iranian ambitions and the need to push them back and some very very sound strategic thinkers who after all only have the jobs they have because of President Trump he doesn't have to have John Bolton his national security advisor doesn't have to have Pompeo at state gym Jeffrey and the others you know he doesn't have to have those guys in their job so they're there because Trump wants them there and they have very sound and sensible thoughts about Iran but what I think there is in this administration is a certain contradiction between the soundness of their analysis in that regard but then also the thing I was talking about before which is the other very very strong impulse in Trump and those around him which is I went to isolationism but just a desire to end what they see as wasteful and unnecessary and costly commitments overseas that they don't see America should be getting into right now there's a contradiction between the two and that leads I think to the kind of confusing messages that have been coming out in recent months on the one hand it's about you know building and crafting the strategy to contain and rollback Iran but then it's about suddenly ending commitments to allies key you know key geographical spots in the region so I think there's kind of two different and indeed contradictory impulses at work in this administration sometimes the one wins out sometimes the other wins out so you kind of don't really know where you are and that's not an ideal situation to be in not in the least are you concerned about Russia coming in more powerfully I mean as Israelis it seems that our prime minister has right now worked out some arrangement with Putin at least to not go head-to-head over Syria and other Iranian controlled areas what do you see a happening to Russia in the future if indeed America is pulling itself out of the region more well you're right to point out that you know that probably senator now is as invested a great deal of time and effort in keeping correct relations with Russia since the Russian aircraft first appeared over the skies of Syria in late September 2015 and that's time well spent without a doubt it's not good from Israel's point of view that the Russians are back in the eastern Mediterranean there'll be much better if they weren't but given that they are it's better to have decent relations with them than not and as it turns out there is what to work with with regard to Putin but in evidently or clearly is not himself an anti-semite that's not something you can necessarily take for granted with Russian leaders and he's and he's not he doesn't have you know he has a certain amount it would appear even of warm feelings towards towards Israel but the thing is at the end of the day you know Putin will follow what he regards as Russian strategic interests and right now the Russians have been close to a strategic alliance with Iran at least with regard to Syria over the course the last half decade in terms of preserving the rule of course of Assad and his regime which means that at the end of the day you know the Russians don't want Israel to be carrying out what they regard as disruptive actions in the air against Iranian infrastructure in Syria which Israel regards as absolutely essential and this is the reason for Israeli security for the security of Israel's citizens and this is why in my estimation the Russians have chosen to kind of a little bit blow out of proportion their response to the downing of the Aleutian 20 by Syrian air defenses following an Israeli raid into Latakia province in Syria in September of this year they've kind of chosen to use that a sort of scapegoats okay no Israel cannot carry on anymore and with the kind of activity that's been going on and indeed we have an example right up and over the last 24 hours there was this apparent Israeli raid at target south and southwest of Damascus last night and we're already seeing just in the last hours that the Russians are now coming out very strongly against this there's a whole story they're trying to sort of spin out and put out that Israel was threatened the raid threatened the safety of two civilian flights at the time so you can see the Russians are really trying very hard to stop Israel from doing what it needs to do Russia is not an enemy of Israel by any means but it is a kind of rival state with a very in the sense it is a state powerful state with a very different agenda in the region so yes I think we'll we're going to have to keep on working with the Russians as best we can we've already achieved a lot even in spite of the Russian position is no doubt that Iranians the Iranians will need to feel very very careful about using this land corridor that they've been trying to establish in Syria over the last few years but at the same time yeah I'm afraid it's going to be a you know a day to day effort a day to day struggle to try to keep the Russians and sea in a place where they don't start looking to actively interfere with the stuff that we need to do it's not gonna be easy and how about Saudi Arabia where do you see that where do you see that country in this whole picture it's taking a bit of a hit after khashoggi and there's some weird stuff going on there too one really played that brilliantly do you see them coming into some kind of word he avoid that the Americans relieving the Saudis will undoubtedly be concerned about what they've just heard in Syria but at the same time you know what happens to Syrian Kurds doesn't necessarily apply to the Saudis and I think that we can assume that you know the close US relations with Kingdom of Saudi Arabia you know I said to continue I mean we know that President Trump himself they're contrary to what he may now think regarding eastern Syria you know it's very has been very vocally behind the connection to Saudi Arabia and specifically of course because it's a very wealthy country and it wants to buy large amounts of American arms so you know that's something which makes sense to Trump and he's absolutely gonna be in favor of that you're right that that everyone played as you know played to to maximum effect and benefit the apparent murder of the force majeure neshama soul-g and one might also add that you know the Saudi if indeed it was an act by Saudis state agents was was cruel and also you know phenomenally stupid to try and carry it out you know you're gonna kill this dissident and you're gonna do it in your own embassy in the capital of a country that is deeply hostile to you which the journalist in question is deeply sympathetic to you know to that Turkey J's it's absolutely astonishing you know so this apparently happened and the Turks took full advantage of it yeah I think there is there are indications that you know Mohammed bin Salman the crown prince is is an impulsive he's a young guy still in his early thirties the same time he is somebody who has a very serious vision for his country you know the vision 2030 he calls it which is intended to win Saudi Arabia from being an economy just based on petrochemicals by 2030 it's a vital task so I think this is a serious and substantial figure I think in my estimation at least the judgment of his actions in Yemen in Western media has been a little bit one-sided actually there have been real achievements in Yemen as a result of the Saudi and Emirati intervention the Iran supported Houthis didn't reach the bubble man tip straight down there which would have enabled them to block maritime traffic coming up from the Gulf towards suez canal so as a strategic goal that they did achieve so I think that the you know the the the jury is still out so to speak regarding MPs I think he's probably going to be an important figure for some tougher in the period to come in our region in spite of the hit that he's taken as a result of the Khashoggi killing and certainly from an Israeli point of view you know the connections that do exist but to Saudi Arabia and to UAE and to Bahrain maybe even to Oman now we know nothing there was in Amman just recently these remains still very important assets for Israel the growing relationship with Gulf countries which I don't think we should be underestimated it's one last question then I've got to run to my last panel what about Jordan and we share as Israeli as we share our longest border with Jordan they have an influx a huge influx what is it a million and a half of refugees from Syria no oil really no natural resources and some of the worst neighbors in the world I mean obviously aside from Israel you see anything happening with the Hashemite Kingdom right now or it's just kind of just gonna make it through for the next little bit and stay under the radar oh it's I mean there has been quite see African you know unrest in terms of demonstrations based on economic demands inside Jordan and Jordan is of course subject to an IMF bailout package which requires that Jordanians to raise prices and a number of key areas including fuel and bread when these kind of things in the past have led to very serious or considerable unrest in Jordan I think it's very possible we could be seeing more of that in the months ahead I don't think that means that though that we should be thinking that you know Jordan is anywhere near being in a kind of pre-revolutionary situation in which the Hashemite monarchy could fall no I think we're still you know a considerable number of steps away from that Jordan has difficulties as you mentioned it also has powerful friends Israel you know under right stood only in security and in spite of that sometimes the public's you know the the public statements by to attorney and leaders critical or deeply critical of Israel behind the scenes they know just how dependent they are on Israeli security assistance the Americans are absolutely committed to the survival of the monarchy for similar reasons the Gulf Monarchs also even though they've not been as generous as the Jordanians hoped in terms of coming up and and you know in putting the hand in their pocket started to be to help Jordan should the monarchy really get into trouble I think they would be find themselves the beneficiaries of rapid emirati and Saudi assistance so Jenner's has some powerful friends as we know the the Gulf monarchies indeed regional monarchies in general have come through fairly well from the last years of regional instability because of their greater legitimacy in a certain sense often in Islamic terms and also in tribal terms often the king so-called is actually the person who's head of the biggest and most powerful tribal Federation that's a very real form of power which these these families hold so to speak so for all those reasons I wouldn't want to be anywhere close to eulogizing so to speak the Hashemite monarchy in Jordan yet but yes I think for economic reasons there is going to be instability there some instability in appeared ahead and it looks like you're gonna have a lot of work to do you're not gonna be bored at all all right thank you so much Jonathan spire I'll circle back to you again in the future because I don't know I think my listeners would have to your analysis and the way that you present them just clears up a lot of the major mess and fog and just nobody knows who's who who's an ally who's a friend what on earth is going on in this crazy part of the world so thank you for joining me thanks it was a pleasure to talk to you okay everybody you can write to me Eve at the Land of Israel dot-com that's it for now I will be back later right if you want to improve relations between Israel and American Jews one of the things that you should do is encourage people to listen to the Land of Israel Network listen Eve Harrow and listen to each I Fletcher and listen to Ari and Jeremy and slo-mo Katz and listened at Mike foyer and listen to Josh hastin because the Land of Israel Network has a mission and that's to spread love between Israel American Jews there's so much to love about Israel there's so much to love about Israelis and I think the Land of Israel Network is part of the solution you are all part of the solution you're listening to the Land of Israel network at the Land of Israel comm broadcasting the trees and beauty of Israel to the world [Music]