Reason to Believe - Rabbi Dr. David Gottlieb

[Music] the title of my book is reason to believe and there are many people who feel the whole project of giving reasons for belief is suspect either it's superfluous or it's dangerous emunah pewter simple commitment and belief is the foundation of the Jewish people has been for thousands of years and looking for reasons makes it sound like it won't up shooter by itself isn't enough which they think is wrong and if you're looking for reasons that the reasons aren't so stronger they come under attack then you can retroactively Lee become doubtful about what you are committed to they would prefer that we should avoid looking for reasons our by hero said clearly that one needs an intellectual defense of the turret let me share with you some classical sources which expressed this point of view the namib starts the mr. Turner with the words is so dire so does the Armada Hawk Mo's foundation of foundations and the pillar of all wisdoms later to know xie xie Matsui Rishon there's a first being who Montse called him so he gives existence to everything that is this Halloween so Misha Marvel arts min but much mayhem but I'm so LM happy to see macho he's responsible for the existence of everything it is to know knowledge doesn't mean just believing not even believing because it inspires you or makes you feel at one with the universe - no means to have reasons now some of you are aware that the safer of mitzvahs is tad so for the first mitzvah the missile aha I mean that's the standard translation well there are two things to say about that first of all of Heller Hill before the war who learned Arabic and rough kappa today say it's mistranslation let's say for bid sir should also say they got and furthermore even if it was that I mean the mr toura comes after the safer missiles which would be needy change his mind but the bottom-line commitment of the Rambam is to not to know and to know means to have reason there I'm Kyle starts the dare Hashem with the words call he misses me sir l sorry Shia I mean VA de every Jewish person has to believe and know he's leaves no doubt about it knowing is in addition to believing she a Shama to be shown Catwoman it's Lea there is a first being that without beginning and eternal boohoo she him to Co mom she called Mincy Matthias who ll Carrboro who he is the one responsible for existence beginning in the Terra Cotta Hashem is patterned on the Soviet era to rumba first parrot is almost a summary of the the Soviet era and he says again and he says yeah I mean VI de so yeah that means to have reason there's a Gomorrah brofist Martin at DocuSign on an hour Markkula bakumeter had made a pearler of Mayors matter good more bacala Bob coconut chocolate ass as draw hi Curtis both was speaking to the Jew study with all your heart and all your soul to know my ways with a skull doubt I'll say to Rossi plant yourself and the doors of my Torah the turtle Rossi believe called guard miter in your heart then I get an F of T Rossi your might go all of me and fear of me should be be in front of your eyes more people recall hate guard to Malcolm walls from all sin the tire of a cat's before we call - maja bone purify yourself a sanctify yourself from all guilt and all transgression Vani area in for Pocomoke woman I'll be with you everywhere no one could possibly have any doubts that that's a prescription to be a perfect to study Torah me tire yourself guard yourself against any transgression year of a chef in front of your eyes continuously that's what their be mayor said now listen to the marshal come on boo hoo ah ha ha Qabbani busy commercial Cosmo a pillow seat pepillo so FEMA for lote the this culinary mayor's words is as the godly philosophers wrote the high of call Adam lahaska PA Diaz mitts you so that do so be a hall table hideous truffle and every person is obligated to understand my skill with the seho with your mind to know God's existence and unity and power and knowing his ways to Fiat seclorum according to a person's intellectual abilities I shall p.m. honest a nuva Vitara of course the guideline has to be our movement and the Torah Oh Masha dear hello this is low show naked taurus a dogged osha anything that in his investigations appears to him to be against the Torah then law yeah I mean bro he shouldn't believe it Vizsla had avocado he should attribute it to the weakness of his intellect possession already mayor more behold above call the das darf I am a chamois man attempts amo face from knowing the ways of Hashem he will find a proof limit to you so do so via halt o for proof for his existence and his oneness and his power to Avada Kedavra god oh that is a great thing it's my shot talking not from the rishonim in in Spain Keegan's they are especially beneficial said Welsh availa also wanted to be able to prove the fundamentals of a Munna when he said one De Niro as professor just careful to play it yourself of the doors of the Torah make sure that your you have a gather that you shouldn't trip over the line but you're investing yourself to understand it with the safe then there's ash Law College this law kodesh in the Saruman orient the first Osama Morris the first my my rights as follows sure Rashad varam who cherish a Russian the the root of all of the whole outlook via dr. Hayashi Mostel of F of Hashem who a lucky should know and put on your heart that Hashem is God wrote solo man you dear believed by her saga Moxie's knowledge in the heart with an understanding of proof no SAFF AHA Kabbalah mid-side of assault in addition to the tradition that he has received from his ancestors kasha here it was a bow causal Volvo's Bashara effort because of others since introduction talks about the application of everyone to know in an intellectual fashion and the schwa quotes him with approval and he says this is the chat napo's like that SL okay Aviva righto um I know South Armagh she'll hook by immunity Lucas believe believe Co meets adavi her in addition to the belief you had in the cottage borrow food that you research received from your father Dino cabal the issue finish that's the masala that came down person-by-person da acaba ax Muhammad odd huh saga you should know it yourself on the basis of your of your own understanding so I suggest to you that if we have there on bum and there are mountain my sure unless lon orbital bubbles this can't be a foreign idea it can't be a suspicious idea an idea that we have to avoid and not be contaminated with that once you have an intellectual basis for one's beliefs now many people have written about this and many people take approaches which vary with their background and their interest and there's a harsh lava between the various different approaches my goal is to reach someone who is completely outside reason to believe is written for someone with no Jewish background and no Jewish commitments and it's written the two halves the first 70 pages are a summary of the argument in four chapters anyone with a high school education and who's capable of paying it that's a strong limitation I realize it's capable of paying attention can read the first 70 pages and get the gist of the argument the next 230 pages are the same four chapters over again in great detail with lots of footnotes to technical literature and sometimes scientific literature and philosophical literature and the kinds of questions that come up I've been here for seven thirty-seven years and thousands of students have come through it some of them haven't been very bright and very inquisitive and has good cassius and I changed my position over and over again because they required me to rethink what I was doing it's an attempt to present a fairly complete picture of how to argue the case the argument is based on four pillars one of method and three of content I'll outline them through briefly and then I'll take you through one in some detail some detail so 640 the first pillar is a question of of method when you're trying to convince yourself or someone else or something how much do you need for it to be reasonable to make up your mind and commit yourself there is a standard that's very popular there's a word that people use in this context all the time and that's the word proof you say you know it prove it I think that the idea of proof is a mistake it's a tragic desperate mistake in all of life in all areas of inquiry proof is not the right thing to be looking for because proof means something that's absolute certain necessary positive infallible it has to be 100% when you try to provide a proof all the critic has to do is exercise imagination if you can imagine any way in which it's possible that what you say is mistaken you haven't got a proof a proof has to knock out all other possibilities if you can imagine a possibility you haven't removed you have it opposed you don't have a proof it attempted to provide a proof all the critic has to do is imagine some way you could be wrong maybe it was visitors from outer space maybe I maybe was leprechauns do you know there are no leprechauns can you prove there no leprechauns Pixies you know trolls and if so you haven't got a proof it's the wrong project proof is the wrong project that's why I called my book reason to believe you can have reason enough to believe something reason enough to be justified and accepting it and committing yourself to it without having proof let me give you an example did you're all familiar with do you know who your parents are how do you know they told you and you trust them how cute you know there are children who are adopted and the parents don't tell them you know that does happen can you prove it didn't happen to you they just kept it a secret from you so you say I did a DNA check well first of all I know you did not and second of all so what if you did maybe they paid off the lab to lie to you about the results you know that's not so have you proved it know that hope nobody now goes home and says boy you just relieved me a ballista for keeping our name because I don't know who my parents are so how do I know I shall be me on top of that I hope you understand you're perfectly justified in trusting your parents you've tested yourself their reliability on thousands of issues that they discussed with you you've observed their behaviour you've served their meetups the fact that it's possible you're wrong doesn't take away your knowledge it doesn't take away the appropriateness of your commitment to your belief and your practice on the basis of that piece of information when you live in life and you make decisions none of your decisions is going to be based on absolute proof you choose a profession do you know that twenty years from now that profession will exist when I left Hopkins they were talking about giving an education to train a person for a multi professional career because it's very unlikely when a student graduates the age of 22 is gonna work till the age of 60 that'll be in the same profession for 40 years so you have to prepare them for shifting professions you don't know whether whether this profession will exist you don't know whether you'll be a success you have evidence you have probability you have likelihood you have experience you've taken counsel with people who are there that senior your qualifications and then you make your decision is that blind is this just blind faith is this arbitrary cuz you're just a well it flipped a coin of course not you gather information you think about it you discuss it with people and you come up with the best probability that you can get and that's how you go same is true with marriage those we were married already know that and those you're aren't you need to know it you'll never be certain that it will work or that'll eat work easily it needs ask anybody go ends up getting divorced and he'll tell you I also thought it was going to work it happens so but that doesn't mean you go in blind you examine examine the background you consult with your parents and your friends and your teachers so that you make the best possible choice that's what it means to have reason to believe that reason to believe means to have is not evidence to make a reasonable decision without looking for proof proof is a mistake then you have to check the evidence I have three pillars on which I rest the evidence for the Torah is that all that could be said other people say other things and that could be taken into account as well but I have three pillars that I rest on one is in learn in from me talking from he saw both in you solving the prediction of the the Corbin the disaster the destruction the exile the scatter worldwide scatter survival and return those predictions are ones which at the time would have been very unlikely to become to come true they don't fit with the human experience historically up until that time so that someone reading the prediction would say this is utterly disconnected from reality there's no reason whatsoever to think this will ever come true and it all came true I document this a great detail so that you have a prediction which everybody else thinks is disconnected from reality and we put it forward when it comes true it counts in favor of us and against them making a true prediction which other people discount is one of the ways in which you gather in evidence credibility for your position that's the scientific method oversimplify but that's what they say so that being the case the the prediction of conquest and exile and survival unreturned marry Turin I don't say that it happens completely yet after all Roe of Israel I'm not out of muscle the myths of Salinas for all rights are not hide there I say yet but even this is something which had never happened in all of human history and it could be the beginning of could be might be think of the order in this Rona s ray of the brothels which is due tomorrow Magilla which is at least one way which could happen and keep its Koleos comes first mushiya comes last so there's no question if this could be and could that be depending upon how we live up to the challenges that the photograph was putting in front of us yeah that's one pill the second pillar is the survival of the Jewish people for three thousand three hundred years which is without precedent and our parallel in all of human history all ancient cultures have disappeared where they have been modified and shifted to such an extent that the originals wouldn't recognize what people are doing today as a continuation of what they were doing the only culture that can claim to go back three thousand three hundred or eight hundred years to Avraham Avinu is us and we have lived under every possible historical condition it there's no such thing as a real controlled experiment in history but we're the closest thing to it we have survived under every conceivable kind of condition tiny minority oppressed madama large minority in the tribe having freedom and our own self direction in Eretz Israel being conquered and taking off into exile coming back and rebuilding but with scattered community elsewhere going through a second disaster being in an exile 1,900 years with no central authority no central central population we have existed in conditions as widely diverse as any more widely diverse than any other nation or any other culture and we have continued to exist there's no remotely plausible natural explanation for that I go through that in great detail in my book and in the appendices some of which are on my website because the publisher gave me only a hundred thousand words which came out three hundred pages and there are extras extra material on the website as well as a second area of evidence which I think can't be explicate be answered and it can't be overcome it cannot be accepted without understanding that this Gothic practice and Kleiss realm which enables us to survive the third pillar is Naaman rc9 I argue that we have I had a good reason greatly adequate reason to believe that mama Dracaena is a real historical event not a myth like some of the other ancient cultures had myths about their origins and their histories in our case it's a real historical event and we have adequate reason to believe it now I want to outline for you in the next 15 minutes how that reason works ancient peoples and modern peoples have stories about their histories what has happened to them over hundreds of years or thousands of years stories are many different kinds some stories involve the histories of heroes or villains or groups that did outstanding things people went to discovered new areas or people created a certain type of Agriculture or they've had Wars successful Wars unsuccessful Wars there are lots of different stories that they have many of them are myths many of them involve supernatural stories fantasies which we know are not true and are accepted today is untrue because of their origins because of the type of stories that they are that means people in their picture their own history have false stories myths they believe that but they're not true and there are many different types but not every different type there's a particular type of story which in my investigation no one has ever accepted when it's not true no one has ever made a mistake about this particular type of story I mean Chinese people and people in Indonesia and people in Nigeria and people in in Alaska and people in Los Angeles well maybe they're an exception who knows maybe they're on drugs I don't know and people in London know where do you have people who have accepted a false story of this one particular type people make lots and lots of mistakes but they don't make every kind of mistake there's one kind of mistake that they don't make what mistake is that it's where you have a national tradition this is a story that's accepted by the nation the tradition describes the history of that nation itself it describes an event that took place which everyone in the nation experienced directly not so-and-so went off to a mountain it came back and told us what happened to him but everybody experienced it directly and it's the kind of event that you would expect people to remember because it's it's an event that moves people people observed solar eclipses everybody saw at the same time almost no one made records of it because it didn't mean anything life went on after the solar eclipse just as it had been before the solar eclipse and therefore it wasn't it wasn't meaningful or significant an event which is described by the nation in terms of its own history where some time in the past all the people in the nation at that time exert observed it directly and it's a meaningful event event that's powerful never once do you have a tradition like that that we know is false what kind of traditions am I talking about well traditions of war in particular traditions of defeat in war because if you're defeated it means the enemy comes in and he breaks down the walls of your cities and he loots your your Treasuries and he takes off your able young people as slaves and he sets up tax collectors everybody in the defeated nation knows that firsthand no one has to be told about it or pestilence when you had the black theft in Europe in ten years thirty percent of Europe died everybody knew that people were dying people were dying everywhere at the same time wasn't a question of reading about it in the later account everybody knew it from firsthand experience you have technological adventures it's not the country was a nation's history we'll say that it's such and such a time someone invented the bow and arrow and it was such an effective weapon that everybody got through and everybody was trained to use them at our armies they are after use them and well there aren't in their in their battles that's a national that's a tradition of the kind that I'm talking about or a migration we were living in a certain area and we came under attack and we picked up the move to another area these are traditions of the type that I'm talking about my term for them is any T National experiential tradition now I did some surveys of ancient myths and I found there are myths about many different subjects but not a single one of this type not a single case where a nation has a myth which says three hundred years ago something happened to the whole nation at that time everybody experienced it directly it was an important significant event and this story is false there's not a single one that's known to be false anywhere in the world but the I read every myth in a story of this everywhere in the world no but I read a lot and I had this has been up on the net for more than eight years and I had a lot of aggressive bitter dead irritated critics who were sure that I were wrong and they brought me rafts of examples and when you examine each example carefully you see that it doesn't fit the conditions that I'm describing there is a Native American tribe which has as this part of its historical records a national revelations national revelation but God speaks to the whole people so someone wrote this to me and said come on this is hid in spades it's exactly your story you don't believe it happened but it's exactly your story one of my students investigated and he found out that the story goes like this the story says there was tried a and the God spoke to all of tribe a every last man woman and child and then everyone in tribe a died no survivors and then the priests have tried be told tried be about what happened to tribe a well um that's not what we're talking about we're talking about where it's a story about what happened to your own ancestors not to somebody else's being sisters you have anti-semitism at the semis made up vicious stories of our Jews these people are deeply prejudiced and most of them are not too bright though there were some with it university education and Prejudice then they have a great deal of benefit for making up these stories about Jews what kind of stories that they make um blood lighters the Jews use the plot of a Christian child for matzo tsampa on Pesach was the story that on February 16th at high noon the whole Jewish population 2,000 people came down to the market overwhelmed the local Christians took off a child by force and took them away it is not a single story like that not one the story is a child went disappeared disappeared went missing a Christian child what happened to him we know what happened to him the Jews took him for the Marxist but it wasn't in public it wasn't they it's pretty not even a town and experienced it because because you can't make up a story like that because everybody knows it's not true the Jews control international banking is that because every year they have a convention at Waldorf Astoria and they inviting all the press and they announced the program for the next year of bilking the world out of its money no not exactly it's all done behind Bob behind behind closed doors it's all done in secret because then nobody knows the Germans had a peek to a an expression after the first world war the Jews cost us the war you know what their expression was they stamped us in the back that's right because you don't see when somebody steps in the back the claim is they did it in such a way that we couldn't see correct because if you said they did it where you could see no one will believe it the fact is these kinds of stories don't get accepted now the backbone of my argument is a survey that I have made of ancient myths if you're talking about intuition I think there's a strong intuition here imagine trying to sell it to a group magic coming to a group and telling to tell you them 200 years ago all of your ancestors suffered from a nationwide earthquake half the population was was killed in the earthquake and had to rebuild although all the habitations and they don't know anything about it are they gonna listen to you they'll say you're talking about a giant disaster everyone would remember that that's not the sort of thing people are going to forget that's an intuition it's not the kind of story that you can sell but you can't prove anything within intuition because someone else will say you're talking about ancient times you're talking about people who didn't have the modern understanding they didn't have modern skepticism maybe you could convince them maybe if the priest says so and he thinks that he has that he has supernatural powers there they will believe it won't believe the only way to make a convincing argument I I believe is to do the survey which I did and check and see whether there's a single example of such a story accepted by any nation in anywhere in the world if there isn't then we have reason based on human experience that's called empirical for the aficionados of philosophical terminology it means a knowledge based on experience on observation on looking at the world and see how the world runs to say that we made up this story would be to say that something happened to the Jews that has never been known to happen anywhere else in the world ever that's a wild excuse that's a person who's really in love with cheeseburgers to say that this happened and we have never had it happen ever before ever before now I want to say tell you what the net the very popular objection is to what I'm saying and then I'll show you that I've already covered it and not only finished with my time The Critic will say rabbi you're so naive almost childish you're telling me the traditions like this can't go wrong I can imagine many ways in which such a tradition could go wrong the priests feed mescal into the population and put them into a frenzy and and tell them and they trust them or the army decides that it wants to change the history of the nation so the army kills out all the history teachers have put soldiers in his history teachers and the children are brought up with a brand-new a brand-new understanding of their history which is completely false and they believe it because that's what they were taught or less fanciful and more academic is something called myth formation where something happens it's a big event natural event that has a big impact on the people maybe it's a volcanic eruption and the stories told from generation to generation and in each generation they change it a little bit in ways that aren't really obvious and to supplement a pay attention to and after 300 years the story changes very considerably and it could change into one of these national experiential traditions why not I don't see why you think rabbi this earthy can't go wrong now it's almost the end of a Tanis and duplicity all day and if you refresher you've already caught the answer my change of vocabulary but let me put it in formal terms I want to speak to the critic as I said sir critic I'd like you to clarify one thing in your remarks are you claiming that your scenario the priests the army the myth formation where things change over time and you claiming that your scenario is possibly the origin of the belief in Sinai or probably the origin possibly or probably which is it that you are that you are trying to support if he says it is claiming that it's possible the answer is I told you at the very beginning is I give it to you anything's possible I'm not out to eliminate all alternative possibilities I don't live in terms of possibilities and neither do you you live in terms of probabilities you don't live in terms of possibilities possibilities are unending you don't take them into account you want to know what there's good reason to worry about what there's good reason to trust so if you're telling me it's possible I give it to you and it's irrelevant what's your alternative you're gonna tell me it's probable now let's see you're telling me my tradition probably came from one of these scenarios that can produce false traditions tell me have you ever seen one of your scenarios work in all of human history you have one example where your scenario actually produced a false tradition and the answer is no because we have no recorded false traditions at all so our haskovo karma we don't have a tradition that a scenario that produced the false tradition so there are no examples of false traditions if there are no examples then you can't tell me that your scenario is probable kids say self this probabilistic so then you're stuck the fact that we don't have any such scenarios on record means that it's not probable that it came to any natural means not probable that it came to any natural means then the whole experience of the world is is on our side it gives us adequate reason to believe that this tradition is correct I see that I have three more minutes I'll say one more thing there is a an expression that people use extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence that's extraordinarily vague but there is a certain sense to it if you're saying something happen there isn't common experience familiar you need more the average amount of evidence and someone will say you're describing a miracle all the traditions that you talked about traditions about wars and traditions about pestilence and traditions about migrations the traditions about technological invention those are traditions about natural things happened and you're talking about a supernatural thing happen isn't there a gap between the evidence was based on the natural on the one hand and the claim that you're making about something super - on the other hand and the answer is yes there is a cap but we can cross the gap and the reason we can cross the gap is because you have to think how reasonable is it to be opposed to miracles what are we reasonable for a person to say I believe in the natural world I believe in the laws of nature I believe in what science teaches and nothing else I'm not going to consider anything else it's outside of my universe I believe only in the natural world is that reasonable well suppose somebody said that 600 years ago with Copernicus came along and said I have a new idea and it violates your picture of nature what's he going to say no siree nothing violates my picture of nature my picture of nature is absolutely run outside by picture of nature another thing to you how will you ever learn that your picture of nature is inadequate and needs to be changed if you're going to be in principle opposed to something that violates your picture of nature that's a dead end that's a recipe for stasis we're never making any progress the great revolutions of science were made by people who said your picture how the world works is wrong it's not a correct picture now how much do you need to get something to shake your pecks your picture of the world you need good testimony need somebody to say listen this was tried this was absurd this was was practiced and you have to rethink even if you can't repeat it the ancient Chinese observed a nova explosion they observed the explosion of a star in the sky where blazed for a few months and then disappeared according to the Greeks nothing at the sky ever changes ever it's absolutely fixed eternal constant nothing can change in the sky there's no change of phenomena in the sky imagine a Greek meaning a Chinese system you know the sky's a dynamic place things happen things changed the Greek says you're nuts Aristotle taught us that the Stars never change said well was Aristotle ever in China maybe he didn't see the stars that we see and in hard case one of the sighs disappeared could the Greek possibly learn to change his mind he could touch quiz the China how intelligent is he how self critical is he in fact in China they had star charts they made star charts of the heavens and they were extremely accurate there were no star charts in Greece just in China so as it is you know maybe he's right maybe I do have to change my mind I'm the basis of a single observation which can't be repeated you can't manufacture Nova explosions of stars can't do that in a laboratory they saw it and the Greeks didn't see it still still they saw it maybe so I suggest to you that the reliability of our testimony the fact that all of human experience supports the reliability of our testimony that's something which gives you adequate reason to accept that something happy which may force you to change your picture of how the world works but am i the book is my contribution to the on-going debates that take place also we have found those of us who write really trying to reach outside us and be much beyond them we find that people are inside who damage that absolutely chorus and they say they have Icarus in the mirror it helps people also see the basis the Sun of the foundations of which their mood can be based and then hopefully if you live up to their on bong Holland am I sure and the Schloss above us that we will live with adequate reason to believe [Music] [Applause]