84: Reasonable Risk

hi this is Deborah Levski and welcome to the special coronavirus edition of the rabbi Orlovsky show as you can see we don't have any audience because we are practicing social distancing and that's why I'm not even in the official Royal offski studio I am operating out of a undisclosed location where I know that I will be protected so it's interesting I received a number of emails that said thank you so much for that coronavirus because everywhere we look the only thing anyone seems to be talking about is coronavirus and it's just depressing and you know and tedious yeah however I did receive a number of comments on my videos and and number of emails that say why are you the only one not talking about it now that to me is not such a caption yeah I remember the first time I was asked to speak at the major schmear solution event for women and Binion a OMA I was told to speak for 35 to 40 minutes and evidently every speaker was told that the first one spoke for an hour the second one spoke for an hour and 15 minutes and I spoke for 37 minutes and everyone asked me afterwards why did you speak so short and I said I didn't everyone else spoke so long so when when you say why are you the only one not talking about it because look let's be very frank I'm not a doctor I'm not a medical professional I'm not a play sick yeah people can debate you know what different place can was saying with the red button was saying I am not in a position so why am I saying anything reminds me of a story my boy to fight barefoot he says he was on a plane and it was an ll flight and it was a snowstorm everybody was on the plane and they were obviously waiting for the snow to let up so they could take off but they were sitting on the runway for a very long time and people were getting agitated he says I wasn't I was sitting in business class they kept giving me free drinks so I was fine but originally the pilot gets on the on the intercom and he says I have been told that you want to hear my voice Here I am there's a lot of snow and that was it [Laughter] I don't know why I need to say anything because I really think that everybody has taught this thing I didn't want to say to death but certainly certainly ad nauseam yeah so I mentioned this to one person and I said listen why should I speak about it I don't know I'm not qualified to speak about it and the person said quite correctly that doesn't stop you from talking about everything else I had to say the man a good point so the one reason I I felt like what am I talking about this for is because what do I have to add to it in fact my last my last podcast which was giving my recipe and reflections generally on chalant I received a couple of replies that said I'm so glad that what everyone else is talking about all these heavy subjects you're talking about something lighter now I wasn't I was talking about showing and that's very heavy no they mean yes concern can compared to pandemic yeah which is certainly the most frightening of the demux there's an epidemic and there's endemic and there's I don't know what a demyx there are but certainly pandemic whenever you hear pandemic that certainly that certainly gives everybody fright so that's one reason I was hesitant to speak about the topic here's the other one I'm not going to mention the name I'm sorry if I'm giving away too much information but Robbie Brown who was a close Talmud information Shapiro I was not I had discussed to sit in a number of his germ for years but neither he nor I would ever call me Acosta he said as much to be what but anyway so right Brown is and there was a notable personality and the firm world very harsh person who who died and everybody was speaking about him and with Moshe Shapiro's was notably not speaking about it so I Brown said how come the rug is not speaking about it he says because otherwise I'd have to tell the truth that's what's the truth is the truth is that he was acting irresponsibly I don't want to go into too many details because I want to figure out argument but he felt that he acted in an irresponsible way and that's the reason that he died and he remember he said whatever it was this fellow did that he thought was irresponsible he said to to very promises 10 Liang give me your hand and promise me that you're not going to do this and he said to me I have to tell you that as the years went by it was a very difficult thing for me to keep but I had promised a motion that I would I would not fall into the mistake that this person did but you understand that when a very important person who's done a lot of good work somebody gets up and says hee hee hee as far as I'm concerned he took his own life by acting irresponsibly nobody wants to hear there's an old quote I don't know the source of it I'm sure my fact-check is out there will will give me the correct source but not everything that you think should be said not everything that you say should be written and not everything that you write should be published I remember it was a story with Abraham Lincoln where for the Battle of Gettysburg which was the worst battle in all of North America in the history of North America of the 50,000 casualties and afterwards robert e lee's army was badly beaten and he was retreating south because that was the high-water mark of the civil war it's as far as north as they got was Gettysburg Pennsylvania and as he was turning because there was a heavy rain the river was swollen he couldn't get across so general Meade had marshaled his forces and turned around and attacked him he could have ended the Civil War in July of 1863 as it is a continuing until April of 1865 and Abraham Lincoln wrote a scathing letter to me telling him how he's prolonged the war and the lives that will be lost not because of that decision and how did General Meade response he didn't he never got the letter because Abraham Lincoln when he would write an important letter would put it into his drawer for I don't know how long before he would send them that was his general practice because he might have had a change of heart and he decided with every men was going on but we just start second-guessing what was going on in the battlefield is not going to help anyway so he decided not to send it letter there's written should be published that's one of the terrible things about email yeah is that you write something yeah very often it comes out like a hostage note it's no punctuation nowhere capitalization you know it's it's basically leave the money in an unmarked tree in New Jersey but you know and they really push the set button and you have to ask yourself whether or not you know it's worth well whether anything positive is being done by by sending that but people don't give themselves time to think people react so I have thoughts on the coronavirus and every man's going on and I'm hesitant to show them because I don't like I say I'm not a place ik and I'm not a medical professional I'm just a person you know who one of the characters who sits in the back and fetches that's what I do I know it's kind of defines Who I am as a person so uh so I have my own thoughts on the matter I've had them from the beginning she's real being locked up gets deep anyway I've had them since the beginning and and you know I've tried to share them I have tried not to share them but when pressed I do end up sharing them and they're you understand since I have been asked to speak about it take what I'm going to say with a very large grain of salt the corona virus is the flu it is apparently more contagious than the average flu at the end of the days of flu every year a certain percentage of the population dies from the flu it's a terrible thing now my my grandfather got sick and and died when my mother was was a teenager it's a terrible thing a hundred percent and yet we've never seen fit to close down the entire world and I'm talking about literally closing down the entire world I am hearing it so every issue in seminary was closed the the the boys and girls were scrambling to be able to get flights to run back to America so they can stay in their house I have a friend of mine who lost his daughter he's saying he's saying Kaddish he says I can't find the minion I Kadish for my daughter can you Dominion and say catch amazing thing just closed down everything so they say well there's a death rate okay let's let's be fair and I'm I'm not a medical professional I just listen to what everybody is saying and and I'm and I'm dumbfounded I just can't understand it because everybody I listen to says the same thing over and over again the problem is we just don't know we don't know if you catch it how serious it's gonna be we don't know if you catch it if it's if it's going to you know if it's if it would you get immunity if the immunity is during the last yeah we just don't know on a Suffolk you close down the whole world I can't speak for everybody here if you're wealthy let's talk but if you're not the view living from paycheck to paycheck you certainly tell people to close their business you simply tell people they can't go to work I'm lucky my career collapsed already last summer so but I have friends of mine who are in the speaker's circuit and of course every events been closed everything's canceled yeah okay they need these checks to pay their bills you know I'm not talking about the luxury items not talking about for self-fulfillment they need the money just be able to get by day to day paycheck to paycheck you closed down everything because we just don't know okay has the death rate the definite is about it that's right I've looked at the statistics almost everybody who died was over 60 or had a pre-existing health condition most most of those numbers were over 80 now okay III don't want to think of being flippant I'm over 60 I have diabetes and heart disease I am what they call high risk so I I haven't my deaf Yomi three people who are in their 80s and one stop coming to this year the other two keep coming do some I stopped learning I stopped learning now high-risk if fixed it affects elderly people worse now to be fair I say over 60 the highest percentages over 80 am smaller percentage over 70 and an even smaller is over 60 even smaller under 60 it's less than a half a percent and I'll tell you some it's worse than this I remember last year in the flu season there were all these terrible stories of little kids dying and this flu for some reason doesn't kill kids it's almost zero under the age of 20 so every now and then they're pulling a story oh there was one person your arts are Grady you're gonna die when you get in your car and drive then that you're going to die from this but did you hear everybody say we have to stop driving because look at the death rate and by the way I think a better argument can be made for not driving then then to close down the entire world economy so people who are high-risk yes they should watch themselves absolutely but every hand is a flow what happened now not only that but the the death rate has been highly exaggerated why because they say of the corona virus cases this is the percentage that dies but they don't have enough tests to test people and as they test more and more people the death rate keeps going down you know why there's a lot of people on coronavirus and they and they even don't have any symptoms so the symptoms are mild enough that they thank God don't have to go to the hospital you so in England they the the revised decided they say it's definitely it's gonna be less than 1% overall not minimizing but do you understand what you're doing when you throw everybody at work when you tell fly so they can't Dobbin they can't learn the campus so if you're high risk a hundred percent you should definitely be responsible and you know self quarantine and there's no question that and if you're not go to work go to school do what you do say see ya but what happens if these people then go to the elderly people yeah so here's an idea don't don't go when I was when I was younger if you weren't feeling well they said stay away from grandpa yeah you're not feeling well you don't want to get him sick they'd say the same thing about little kids keep them away from the baby you'll get him sick sometimes you get sick you lie in bed the gas bread drink plenty of fluids yeah have a hot tea and do what I do when I get sick yeah moan and complain pitifully [Music] very well can I get you anything no I just soak all this I buy you another blanket no no I just that's what I do that's what I do so there's something happy you got understand if the whole world does something it's a gazelle minish Mike you know World War one was one rule one is one of the most frightening to Koufos of world history it went on for years and they didn't gain any ground it was a big scar and that went across France the Germans were on one side the French won the other and every now and then they would build up a million men on each side and they'd smash into each other and kill a whole bunch of people and then go back and they wouldn't capture anything there's one for years remember reading an analysis and they said based on the technology that existed at the time there was no way to win World War one so Edward Creasy wrote a famous book called the 15 decisive battles of world history so somebody put out a book much later yeah not that many years ago called the hundred decisive battles of world history and he agrees that sir Edwin creasy's are probably the most important ones but he's focusing on other battles and one of them he focus on his world war one why because we never fought a war of attrition like that where the goal was to fight a battle just to see how many people I can kill in the other's life so basically came local one occurs broeckel made the entire world crazy and everybody just smashed into each other I just it was the end it was the end of the world then the world is as that existed for centuries there's no more mouth US and Europe right it was the Tsar of Russia there was they Kaiser and in Germany and there was the Emperor of Austria Hungary they were all wiped out after oh boy it becomes that comes a laugh line now and you say this is emotional there was a cape nobody even knows what that means anymore yeah the monarchy so something happens it's ruts ownership nothing happens for nothing well hunter Vasa men during the depression wrote an amazing thing he said the money's still there nothing actually disappeared the virus then burned down the ships didn't sink if the money is this his people stop lending it because we don't trust each other anymore is that there's a lack of trust one of the things that fueled the Trump economy is that a lot of people trusted him as a businessman that he was going to focus on business and focus on the economy and so people trusted him and they they started investing again this is a salesman and he and he said I want to do anything I can to help you build your business and I want to help you and I want to see be successful a lot of people heard the message and in England they were using this this projection from Imperial College which they've now read worked the numbers and it was ten times as much as what could be expected so what's the problem the problem is that if everybody gets sick at the same time to her and the ventilate is done enough hospital beds granted granted so therefore the people who might need hospitalization they should definitely self quarantine now stay away from public places I've got police patrolling my neighborhood in case you go out for a walk give you a five thousand shekel fine I've diabetes my doctor told me I have to work every day the government says if you do we're gonna find you because we're worried about your health guess what so is my doctor the whole world goes crazy and the amazing thing is and I said this word over we go to shul airbrush rishonim Mincha ten minutes left to the year fifteen minutes left of the year yeah it's a break whole English a Shannara is the tape lest this year for a good partnership is 10 minutes left I could've Buraku in one moment can destroy the world economy and you think that's something any if you can destroy the entire world economy and one day the mastaba the google it can also come we've spoken about this the idea of matzo is you know how long it'll take for the Google of the cub 18 minutes less than 18 minutes the time it takes to make demises they bake their matches when they got their killer yes mud suit because they did not become far mates I said loo I'm Turkish burro who saved them and redeem them how fast does it take incredible incredible who's wrong to do anything so what can I tell you it's not my place to second-guess anybody I I'll tell you story there are many who escape who say he should not dive in on a minion and a flame I remember I was learning with somebody he also travelled a lot and he says to me do you dabble with Dominion on a plane and I said yes I did he said what do you mean this basic said you shouldn't that placing said you should I said you're right I see a group of Jews getting together the diamond I can't set my say that just can't he says well I wouldn't do it he says to me I wouldn't do I would sit there I said what if us for showing me in this big condition I don't know I don't know but but I just I know the place could say not to six months later his father passed away well we both ended up with the same flight I never met him the airport before whatever reason he didn't get there on time or whatever and he's standing there on the plane trying to get a minyan for Mensa so he can say Kaddish and I see him as you can imagine I knew a double-take he says don't say anything you killed my father I don't really think I did but so you know I hear I can't tell anybody you know they said a quarter of the cases and Israel were caught in full but again that's not my question the question is how many of those people ended up in hospital ventilators yeah sometimes you catch the flu every year during the flu season I meet people get the flu nobody ever told me to like myself at my house and I can no joy my risk what's the cost in terms of humanity by canceling all the schools how many kids are not going to be able to say admonished and others yes because they were in school to learn it you know and parents parents can educate their kids at home see how well that goes over and play the river out the face of tape I'll help but I don't think they use tapes anymore sorry about that CDs I'm something like Joe Biden go get the record player crank up the old high five I remember I was saying Dan isn't this is a great idea but anyway what what can I tell you you know it is what it is it is what it is I know somebody who went through some very very difficult times everybody asked how do you manage he says it is that's the Mateus if anyone asks me and like I said nobody does I just don't understand everything is a question of weighing costs the whole reason that Gomorrah is create conflict is because the only way you can make a decision is with a conflict I used to say when I was in NC is why I had to choose a caterer and I said I don't mind making decisions there were two caterers one his food is very good he's inexpensive and he's reliable the other guy his foods not so good he's more expensive and he's not reliable which one should I choose yes I had a question question that's a fine decision but I never got decisions like that you have to weigh different different factors and making a decision so saving lives on void I heard I had the point man the Trump administration speaking like the founder and and and somebody else I said so why don't the people who are elderly at risk just you know isolate and let everybody else go with their lives and he basically said it's very hard to keep people really isolated they'll come over and visit they'll come over this doesn't happen that's not a Terrence to close down the entire world because people don't do it right I remember it was the student struggled for silver jewelry when I was in high school and they came up with this idea of adding a fourth Madsen to the Seder the matzah of hope for Russian Jews I would argue that there's enough references to freedom in the Seder already then I don't have to add an extra matzah for the Russian Jews the mots of hope is that what every much is know what every satyr is laughs mine yeah there is Ryan yeah now we hear and next year will be it showed that which slaves they see will be free sorry is as somebody once about some new ritual that was being created and I said why for what purpose I said isn't it covered by this and covered by this he says yeah but people don't take those things seriously so you're gonna head more ritual and that'll make it more meaningful I don't think so I think it just end up with more of the same make the things we're doing already more meaningful to close the whole world before Pesach to clean my house with all the kids running around a near-impossible desk now here to tell you you can't believe your house police are stopping you where you going how much was to get a haircut before yet if how am I gonna get my clothes to the dry cleaners doesn't matter what's important thing to saving late but we're always taking risks and if you worried about that get rid of all the cars because a lot more people dying car accidents but hello wat you take a risk says I'm associate showroom yeah what's called reasonable risk and and what's called you know being a lunatic homeless crazy when it comes to these things so he says statistical you make a statistical analysis not what could maybe might happen that's the legend in position okay are there risks life is always filled with risks what's the course what's the cost of closing down the whole world I think is Rubicon and said and it's because of a certain of course I'm gonna and we have in ourselves and make me an everybody else and I thought to myself no see everybody wearing the masks and lucky themselves into their room and I remember the last time that happened was during the Gulf War everybody had to lock themselves into a sealed room and everybody had to have a mask I thought what's the difference back then there was an external enemy shooting missiles at us and now we have to be afraid of our friends and neighbors and family now we're the ones who are attacking ourselves you and so where'd they be dude in the Taira by a meter we kick him out send him outside of the can so if you're looking for something Pratt's gonna work on this something Brad to go to work on something practical to work on this is how we speak what we say yeah so those are some ideas for us to work on and this has been a special coronavirus an edition of the Revlon ski show thank you thank you very much no really sir thank you thank you you're too kind but what can I tell ya you're lucky that I even got dressed for this hanging around the house I put on a shirt and a tie jacket otherwise I'm wearing like pajamas but I'm just kidding but you know gosh gosh this is a way to go into basic Nissan for this Nissan is kodesh nice in let's pretend on this farm a month of miracles before you tell coach Bravo make your problems so I tell your problems how big a coach broccoli is this is for sure guys airmanship I mean everywhere around the world and what we really have to do is we have to look inside of ourselves that's the idea of is motive the motive this is always to have time for yourself to think and to consider and isn't that what Pesach cleaning is all about going through everything and deciding what do you need and what TV we got make what the law is in my home it doesn't belong in my home so we have to diamond next to diamond caviar sham and you know I don't know at what point the nations of world saying you know because can keep us locked up forever so they said okay well weights we find a vaccine yeah about 18 months you're gonna close down the whole world for for almost two years there make any sense anyway like I say I'm not qualified to speak I'm gonna stop it but really almost anything but if you're watching this podcast and you know that I'm not shy to share my thoughts what's the math you mean I hope there isn't a scam either I don't know I'm gonna tell you to do violate the law there you go around that you see on Episode these weddings taking place as I was passing down the street I saw a group of people standing so they could watch the open that was up on a repair site they were out on the street so I could see because there weren't enough people out there had to go to the post office today one of the place is still open and everybody has to be like 6 feet away so the line to get in the post office went all the way down the street and what's with the toilet paper I don't know is this something about this virus attacks toilet and eggs I can't get eggs now I don't know what it is in Israel they're rationing the eggs some but the chickens they keep them cooped up anyway that's why it's called the chicken coop cooped up yeah I know I understand I've been assured this plenty of food I see these ads for these first supermarkets and but nobody can go oh no somebody's crazy maybe it's me yeah I'm like they're wanting to recognize it so important out there's a serious force of course into your elbow not into your hand and you're not supposed to shake hands supposed to bump elbows but that's where I just sneezed so that doesn't make any sense I don't know Cavanaugh sham you never go wrong davening never go wrong and coach Mark who should mama SH in this month of iris free us from our homes let us once again look abroad in the streets OD Shama Barea who duh over hood says who shall I enclose articles oh ha ha Sundra code call or they won't have to be stuck out on a professor with 3 people watching for the street me attention we should be Ze'ev once again to be able to have a life if not normal at least to the usual level of abnormality which we've grown accustomed that's it for this week and like I do my ocean feel because this is a special coronavirus thing I usually happy I put on a tie I was just gonna sit here with like one of those you know crazy looks at my life we are on lockdown we can't get out and I'm Deborah Orlowski and this is the very last ski show it's the rabbi Orlovsky show Turin simcha ready to go the rabbi Orlovsky show knowledge and wisdom will help you grow lots of fun in every episode of we don't have to ride no it's the rabbi or laughs to show a rabbi or on skis.com go anytime you too bored it's rabbi Orlovsky show [Music] while Orlovsky show till it's time to again throughout my Olaf ski shop it's the rabble about ski show it's the rabbi Orlovsky [Music]