The Weekly Update with Nachum Segal and Malcolm Hoenlein on JM in the AM

Malcolm Homeline is with us. Time for the weekly update. Conference of Presidents of major American Jewish organizations. Mr. Homeline, welcome back to JM in the AM. >> Thank you. It's good to be with you. Good to hear you so strong. >> Thank you. We're we're we're we're getting there as they say, you know, and Barak Hashem we're celebrating in Mazav as I shared with you and with the audience and as you always remind us is nothing more important than transferring and transmitting everything that's about our heritage and tradition to the next generation. So as Ratashm all of our families should continue to grow. That's the greatest answer to all our enemies is that we need Jewish children, grandchildren, great-grandchildren who will continue and we'll continue to fight and will manish overcome all of the challenges that we had and and we will discuss. >> Yeah. Amen to that. Uh all right, here's the rumor. The rumor is that um the prime minister of Israel um asked, begged, strongly suggested to the president of the United States to hold off on any type of military attack in Iran. Uh tell us what you think about the validity of this rumor. >> Okay. So again, I think your caveat that it's what I think the prime minister has not spoken to this um and uh other Israeli officials with have spoken of have give give some credence to the reports and the basis can be several of several. first preparation. We America needed more time to build up its presence and now that we have the air carrier coming back to the region with all of the support ships, the destroyers that come with it, the added capabilities which are very critical. We had uh no aircraft carriers in the region. There were several around Venezuela and South America. There were a couple around China and a few were in dry docks. So they were not available. Now uh we well the presence is is being established as we speak. Uh it doesn't mean that nothing could have been done or they couldn't have done everything. In fact with the existing capabilities that we have 30,000 troops in the region we have capacity in uh in air force bases in Doha at the fleet in Bahrain. So we have a lot of of capabilities and I'm not sure how much it would have taken to uh effectuate the result but I think now they're still defining the result. Uh I think the the pressure also came from some of the Gulf states uh for fear of retaliation. There's also fear that after seeing what happened in Syria and in somewhat to some degree also South America with Venezuela, but more importantly the the uprising in in Syria, the replacement of the regime that a lot of the traditional regimes are afraid that a successful overthrow there in in Iran would also activate their citizens uh against the the government. I think several are pretty confident and I think several feel shaky about it. You know Qatar is a country only 10% of the population are Qataris or in the Emirates or in other countries and specifically in Saudi Arabia where we see a lot of internal dissension. You see the king reemerging. It's much more uh conservative or or um more of a reflection of the past. We've seen even some of the police, you know, monitoring the dress and and other things emerging. Uh so I think there's a battle going on internally in a lot of these countries and they're afraid >> that toppling the regime in in Iran will then activate others. >> And remember that I just want to just say for people's background that Iran is not a unitary country. It's it's less than 50% Farsy. It's more than 50% 51% I think. uh Azeri 30 million, Baluchi 12 million, Awas, Arabs, Kurds, everything else um Christians of course, Alawites, Bahai that are in the country and it's a huge country. It's 90 million people. It's, you know, the population is nine times Israel and the land mass is is much more than nine times that of Israel. And and so we can't look for simplistic solutions. And I think Netanyahu, if he'd said it, did it because number one, the preparations that took place in Israel. Although earlier in the week, they already had moved missiles around Jerusalem, missile defense systems and in in the center of the country. They uh shifted troops. There were a lot of preparatory steps that were taken. So, I don't know that it's the defense of Israel that was the the big issue. I think they looked at as a regional thing. And if you don't have somebody to take the place, this is the really critical issue, >> right? >> That you if chaos could lead to a worse situation, not a better one. >> So >> we know the executions are continuing. We know that you know the besiege have not defected or the IRGC we haven't seen mass defections and that's the signal you look for to know that the regime is falling and the people are switching sides. >> All right, lots to unpack here. So a couple of questions. First of all, based on what you just said, then can we conclude that the 12-day attack, you know, the the American military action against the Iranian nuclear facilities, can we then conclude that that likely had more cooperation from the Middle Eastern countries than what the United States is enjoying right now? In other words, if they're worried or if they're being contacted by certain countries that this is not a good idea or not a good time to do this, could we then assume that back then there was a lot more cooperation and more enthusiasm for the move? >> Uh yes. And I first that that what happened on the 12 day war set the stage for this that the and not just America American Israel war with Iran. It degraded the their abilities. They still do not have air defense. Israel and and United States can fly over to Thran if they want. It did not destroy completely their capacity. They rebuilt some of their missile capacity and you know if they launch even a couple hundred missiles. Uh if you don't have the network in place and remember the Jordanian air force helped. There were um Gulf states that that helped in the in the defense as Saudi Arabia included. And um we're not sure that that would exist today. Do they all want the regime out? Everybody wants it down. Do they are they threatened by it? Yes. Would they feel relieved? Would it change the region dramatically? Because Kamas the Dalab, which is enemy of almost all of them except say Qatar and Turkey, right? >> Um would be would you pull the rug out completely? As much as they are diminished, this would be a much greater blow to them. >> And and is the target confusing to the casual observer? Right. I watch the news. To the casual observer, you we're not attacking or threatening to attack a nuclear facility. We're not even attacking or threatening to attack any type of specific military installation. And we're certainly not suggesting, I don't think, that like Venezuela, we're walking in to take out the leadership, you know, uh, and drag them out of the country. Is is is is part of it that it's confusing what the target actually is and what a presence militarily by the US and Iran might actually accomplish? >> Yes. No. As you said, a lot of parts there that are are really key to the overall puzzle. the the target is not it would be the missiles not the nuclear program which is pretty much set back but would not be the immediate necessity because they're not going to launch a nuclear weapon but they can launch a lot of missiles and specifically at Israel and it could be you know a hail Mary at the end if they think they're going down that they you know they go down with a blaze of glory so that they get written up in Islamic history as having done so much damage to the Jewish Uh but so it's it's a the picking of the targets. Uh you know that Israel could have taken out I mean he over the during the 12-day war they were told not to I think and maybe came to the own conclusion not to um he he has 17 bunkers in which he is hiding. His son Mushtaba has six bunkers. They move them constantly from one to another. So it's not that they're just walking on the street and you can knock them off. It's although they are vulnerable like everybody else. The So it's uh yes, we would have less support regionally. We would have uh but but you have less of a target because you don't have to knock out the air forces and all that stuff now. And the consequences are the key thing about how would you maintain the stability of the country? Maybe by having a consortium government, you know, with representation from all the different sectors coming together in uh in some way. There are many attempts at this. Um we've been working with many people inside Iran over the years or experts on Iran, former officials of top officials of Iran. None of them have simple answers to this and Raza Palavi, which everybody the son of the sha that they put forward uh doesn't have universal appeal. He could be an interim chief executive or something, but he's not the ultimate leader and I don't think he positions himself as that. Uh so I don't remember all the parts of what you said, but it's um >> bunkers or no bunkers. Is the leader of Iran going to stay in Iran? >> Look, he's 86 years old, 87 years old. He's sick. I don't I don't know that he um you know, he's not going to flee. I don't think he's going to seek asylum. they say in Russia uh certainly for his son whom he's trying to protect and if you notice the son is very lowkey he wanted him as the successor um I think the uh the Ayatollah is still exerting a lot of leadership a lot of the pressure uh and like the king of Saudi Arabia that everybody wrote off and said he's out of it it's clear that he's not and that he's playing more and more significant role uh in in decision Saudi Arabia what to me all of the side developments, the fact that Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are talking about this joint pack coming under Pakistan's nuclear umbrella, but shifting alliances that could have longerterm consequences, especially for American interests in the region, let alone Israel's and the Abraham Accords, that you would start seeing groups break up. Everybody wants Iran government to change. They want, but and Iran could become a very powerful ally of Israel. still see Israeli flags at the demonstrations and it's not Jews carrying them. There's a report of a wonderful woman's surgeon in Kerash who just was who was executed because she demonstrated with American Israeli flags and and she was uh exe hung by the government. So the talk that nobody is dying and they're not being killed. There are body bags all over the country huge numbers. They're charging the families, by the way, to identify where the bodies are or where they're buried. We believe there are mass graves. We also heard reports in various places that they were burning bodies because there were so many piling up that uh the number who are killed is huge, much bigger I think from the experts I speak to than the figures in common in the American media. So if everybody here is saying 2,000, you're saying you think it's a much larger >> multiple, a big multiple of that, maybe 10 times that. >> And and and how do these take place? Do they do the authorities and the and the military go to these public demonstrations and literally just start killing people, you know, wantingly? Is that how it happened? >> Exactly. >> They just shot him on the streets. >> It's amazing in this era that we don't have more footage and more, I don't know, eyewitness accounts of what's going on. Well, remember there's blackouts. There's no phone. There's no internet. The the capacity to do it. There are pictures uh available that during the few hours that they are able to upload stuff that you've seen some of it, but it's almost minimal. There's no communication between families here and their relatives there. And even if they do get them on the phone, they don't talk. And um this is especially true, very sensitive for our community that um uh so they they literally go to the demonstrations and and they brought in Afghani troops from so from Syria whom they you know they organize these special forces and send them Syria. They're very brutal. Uh based are brutal enough which are the domestic radical groups. But the uh they brought in Syrian from Syria these uh troops to support the Iranians and they are to shoot bluntly and kill. Some of the besiege and others are afraid to because they know they could be identified and and could suffer consequence. These people have no limitations and they're just paid in to come in brutally and killed in October 7th fashion. And there are rapes. There's there's all sorts of torturous things happening. The the prisons, the uh morgs and hospitals are overflowing with victims. Like we don't know yet what happened last night. Um again because there is overall blackout of of information. People are really intimidated and afraid to talk. when you heard the president of the United States yesterday indicate that the executions are you know are stopping um and that uh you know things are calming down etc. I mean what do you think that some people think it was a ruse that that you know he's trying to distract everybody from the fact that they're really going in. Others felt like he had to walk things back and you know cover himself if in fact they decided not to continue with his with his pretty harsh threat. What were your impressions of his statement? >> Well, first of all, the executions may have uh been held back and certainly of the names, the few names that were made public of people as a young guy who was supposed to be executed. So, they can it may be true that they held off on that. But you don't know what's happening in the provinces because there's nobody reporting on not on the demonstrations, not on the executions, not on the the the real developments on the ground in a lot of these places. And um and you know that in I think I reported here on in late December they were executing one person every 2 hours, >> right? >> And and these are government executions. So you're talking about thousands of people who were executed by the government during the year in addition to all of the murders and everything else that was going on. And that number then shot up uh dramatically as the conflict uh and the street demonstrations started. Clearly they were given the order to shoot to kill and they killed a lot and I as you can see how sensitive the whole river to the sea crowd and all the people at Colombia demonstrated and all the universities on fire because these are young people being killed wantingly uh for for nothing but trying to seek democracy and freedom and uh and you see the hypocrisy and the fact that there was no sincerity in those demonstrations that were all manipulated that nothing is happening Now, >> so what do you think of the president's statement? I mean, do you think he it was in fact >> so I'm sorry. So, you know, the president has a habit of feigning things of creating which is something by the way an accepted tradition in Islam where you can you're allowed alive for purposes of advancing Islamist Islam goals. Um, and the president, you know, has shown this ability. The problem is he's really on the line. You know, we several times United States failed the people of Iran when they demonstrated in the green revolution and uh and previously when they took to the streets in the hundreds of thousands and by the way chanted the same thing. We will not die for Iran. We for we will not die for Gaza. We will not die for Lebanon meaning kamas. We will die for Iran. meaning against the government and they were chanting it again and the um uh so the the people hearing the president and they kept saying we want to hear from the president we want to hear from Netanyahu both of whom did issue statements but the prime the president said go take over your institutions continue help is on the way I'm coming we hear you and and you know they felt encouraged to to uh to do it they may have done it anyway Okay. >> And I think the president didn't just say it. I think he meant it at the time, too. I think he may still mean it. And and it's just looking at strategic capacity that you don't want to do something that's going to fail because that will make things worse. And you don't want to create, as I said, a situation where members of the IRGC who are even more radical will take over. And you you want to make sure that there's the capacity for some sort of transition as they did in Venezuela. If you look at it, it's it's remarkable that the leaders taken out and seems stability and and they're moving and changing policy. I mean that's what we what should be effectuated in Iran and the uh you know and and maybe that is why the warnings that came from others and the president's hesitency although just look at the movement of equipment and troops and stuff to see that maybe they they believe they need a greater capacity in order to offset the um you know Iran's strength. They are strong country. They have a big army. big um regular army and then they have the IRGC which is a second army and they both have navies both groups have navies and both have capacities >> understood it's America's one and only Jewish moments in the morning radio program heard and listeners sponsored digital radio around the world.com network and of course the beloved NSN app support our annual campaign especially if you enjoy our programming and all of our conversations fjbun.org fjbun.org So this week, I don't know how many times I heard from people, should I cancel my trip to Israel? Should I postpone my trip to Israel? This airline is about to announce they're not flying to Israel. Frankly, Malcolm, and I don't know if you agree with this. Um, but but you pay careful attention to the news. I don't think any airline actually stopped flying. Am I right about that? And what would you have said to somebody who brought up the topic of postponing a trip? >> Uh, I don't see any reason to postpone a trip if something's bad. the airlines will cancel. LL will not. So, book LAL, you're more likely that your flight will be continued. Uh, could there be a disruption of service? Absolutely. It can happen. >> But none of the majors have announced that yet. Correct. >> So, New Jersey, some that United that were turned back, but it could be for mechanical purpose reasons. U the Europeans did cancel the flights that that did take place. slipped on to others um have uh it moved right away which was quite surprising but um uh so yes there could be interruption to service but it's certainly there's certainly no reason in Israel to to not to go and not to uh enjoy it and be assured you'll be safe. Um what what was the purpose of Prime Minister Netanyahu reaching out to President Putin to discuss the situation in Iran? >> Because Russia is still an important player. It has influence. It has a presence still in Syria and other places and has the relationship with uh Iran and Netanyahu has or feels he has a a good relationship with uh with Putin. So having him uh online and I think that he spoke to other leaders as well u is a natural thing to do and it's important uh to first of all to get a reading of where Russia is at. Russia is not in the capacity to do much for Iran. You know all the drones that are flying against Ukraine they're they're supplied to Russia by Iran. They're selling the oil for Russia and and uh you know the the inlocking relationship the joint exercise that Russia China and Iran do. So their their relationship is pretty intimate. So I think it makes a lot of sense that Netanyahu would speak to um to Putin about it. >> Um where is Mahmud Abbas at the moment? >> I think in a hospital actually in Ramadan. >> And you've pointed out more than once he's over 85 years old. Correct. >> Yes, he is. >> And he will have no he will have no role likely in the future of Gaza, especially if President Trump's plan continues to move forward. Yeah, I don't even know a future role. It's it's a day-to-day situation. He's old. He's uh they they talk about potential successors. He has named some people um who probably be at least interim somebody to fill in. Um but he uh you know, he's not well and he um he's in his what the 24th year of his four-year term or 23 years, whatever. Uh he's, you know, he's not an elected official. doesn't enjoy the confidence of the people and the the feeling always is that he's better than the alternative, >> right? >> But I think at some point that's no longer true. >> All right, so now let's get to the plan because the president did make some public statements about the Gaza peace plan, the committee that's being set up, etc., etc., and you're also reading reports that it's going to take seven years to remove all the rubble from Gaza that was caused by this war, etc., etc. So now, and I also know there's a commitment to, you know, to wait for the last remains of the last hostage to come back to Israel. So what is different now with everything that Witoff and the president said this week about the Gaza plan than, I don't know, a week or two ago? >> Nothing that I know of. Again, we have to study the documents very very carefully to see if there were changes. But for one, they're naming names of the people who would serve on an interim committee. the naming of Maladanov as the I guess coordinator or chairman. Um he's he is a good guy and friend. He worked though he worked for the United Nations was the Middle East coordinator but he was um he was friend of many of ours and I think he's a balanced and and good choice for this uh for this job because you also need the support of uh you know the Arab countries and others. You can't just appoint um somebody favorable to Israel. The the um uh the question is implementation. So move ahead. >> Uh it can't you can't have the next stage really being implemented until the last body is returned. That's a pledge, a promise that has to be kept. And and I think Netanyah has every intention of doing that. And the families and others are still petitioning for that. and and I think the US wants to see it. the uh but I think they feel that if it's stalemated too long, we're not going to be able to to move it and to have any lifeline there or appearance of a lifeline uh to uh for others to to not intercede and or to lose the the opportunity ultimately and because he knows he's being measured by all of these things and they go out on a limb and announce things before I think that they're perhaps matured enough. So this is um you know this the announcements uh I think are meant to build up pressure but I think the administration is is supporting Israel about the need to get the return of the last body and disarmament of kamas as a as a condition >> and that condition I mean I I don't know if you would have agreed a month or two ago because kamas was making a major issue the fact that that's never going to happen. Has any of that changed over the last couple of months? I mean, is there really a a an honest hope for complete demilitarization of of kamas and Gaza? >> Well, I think we're seeing remilitarization in some instances. You know, that Israel is cleaning up the area under its control, but it's it's got a a very small percentage of the population in across the yellow line which Israel controls. And we know that the inside the areas that some of the um the tunnels are still being discovered and they still find stockpiling of weapons. The belief is that they're bringing in new weapons. They're certainly talking about it. So same true withah and um and a lot of people in Israel have concerns and confidence in anything believing that you know we're going to face uh the same circumstances as before. I do not think that Israel will let that happen. It it can't let that happen. Um if uh as you know a lot of the buildings there's huge destruction. It'll take maybe decades to really rebuild. But signs of uh like the Ron Rafa where they want to start construction. Uh maybe that sends a more positive signal. But you know everything can work on both sides of the equation. And right now the first thing is got to get back the body and and disarmament Hamas has to take place and the dradicalization of the population too is very critical for the longer term ability to live together >> and that could take a long time >> a very long time. >> Uh back to Iran for a second. UN Security Council is there any activity this week with everything all the executions etc going on in Iran? There are people who brought up and the Israeli ambassador spoke about it but action no >> and of course >> to have the Russian Chinese vetos there. So >> Oh right good point. Uh but in addition to that I mean but but just some type of resolution because we know what would happen obviously if Israel was perceived as the aggressor uh in this case. Uh but >> they'll blame they are blaming Israel of course and you saw the foreign minister of Iran said it was Zionists who who were shooting and Zionists who were agitating and that it's all foreign terroristled meaning Israel. Uh it didn't take long for them to to make the shift. And of course people believe it. You have all the crazies in in the United States and on the internet and others and and you have to understand when you repeat something often enough people believe it. And we're already getting feedback that people are repeating the charge that Israel was behind this and of course it was not >> unbelievable. Also, I I'm a bit confused about what happened with Israel and the UN agencies this week. They separated themselves from specific I don't know committees or or suborganizations of the U. You know how the UN works. What what exactly happened this week? So by the way, United States uh also separated itself from a number of UN agencies uh which are wasting money and and working against American interests, Israel's interests and others. And Israel in particular uh took action against uh and withdrew from a number of the agencies. They're they're threaten the secretary general for instance is threatening to sue them if for pulling out of UNRA uh which as you know many members of or number of members of UNRA were involved on October 7th and it's been a it's a Palestin it's meant to serve the Palestinian people but it's a propaganda machine we saw how much activity we know the textbooks that ENRA gives out in all of the violations the constant violations so uh so Israel took action against a number of the agencies pulling out. Problem is when you don't have a presence, it's a harder to to respond and to uh monitor what is going on. But I think you just reached the point and I think the United States and many others, a lot of Europeans who have uh hesitancy about uh you know where the UN is going, but for them it's a vehicle and it doesn't cost them that much. America pays for a quarter of the whole budget and and I think Israel is saying also why should we support agencies? You know the all the reports I think during the week is since we talked that Israel uh cut off a couple dozen aid agencies from having permission to go in because they were aiding and abetting the terrorists and they were not serving the people. All of them together made up less including meten for doctors without borders which made a big you know a lot of headlines in Europe and elsewhere the less all together they were less than 1% of the aid less than 1%. So all I'm saying, oh the aid, the people going to starve that that first of all, there's more aid inside Gaza than they could possibly use. They throw out a lot of it, waste it, and of course Hamas takes it, steals it, sells it. Uh so all all these stories and you think the media after all that they've seen, if there was an ounce of integrity, they would report this properly. But all all these agencies, many of whose members were involved in in um supporting terrorism, if not directly involved, uh get a free ride and and and they they distort and misrepresent this reality. Israel is letting in so much stuff. The problem is once it gets in there, it can't be distributed. It's it's hijacked. It's terrible. >> Unbelievable. Finally, Malcolm, these stories that we keep hearing of uh suicides among those soldiers who are involved in this war, PTSD, and how serious a subject it is right now in Israel, etc., etc. I mean, unlike prior major wars in Israel, not a criticism, it was a different era. Uh you're very much in touch with government officials. Would you in fact say at this point that the government of Israel is taking these situations very very seriously? >> It's a crisis. It's very serious. There are I would say many thousands who are trying to get help, mental help uh or um the the uh various syndromes that we read about uh are present and and the people who served and remember people who had served 3 400 days and witness terrible things and stuff. It's natural that would be it would happen and Israel has to devote and is devoting more and more resources. They absolutely take it seriously. the ex the the um suicide rate which u of course every one of them gets a lot of publicity u I shouldn't exaggerate it but it is there is a mental health crisis I think and that there has to be a lot more resources and and American organizations others should be helping in in these cases to build up the capacity for counseling for for treatment um you know it'll be it's not going to be short term some of these things take years to work out um But it's a tragedy when you read the story of a young person uh who takes their own life. It's one thing you die in war. It's another thing when you die after the war. >> H yes very sad. And to to uh to conclude on a positive note as we know from this week's para the one above is always there for us. He's always there to protect us. I'm Israel. And please God, everybody who needs uh some type of help, especially in the situations we just discussed, will in fact discover it and discover it very quickly. Please God. >> And look at Israel's enemies are falling one after another. They will fall. And we have to be strong. We have to get through this period and help the people of Israel get through it. And we will could emerge from this a whole different Middle East. >> Amen to that. Thank you, Malcolm. Have a wonderful Shabas. We'll speak. Oh, hope hopefully next week. If not, you'll know why. But it's not that it's made. Thank you. >> The whole audience is giving you muzzle. >> I appreciate that. Big extended family. And of course, Malcolm's referring to the fact that Kalin Byaman Seagull had a brand new baby boy last night. I'm referring to the fact that there may be a bris. Please God, if it's on time, please God, bash to at the right time uh next Friday. And that would obviously alter our schedule. Friday morning, JM and the A.M. Thanks for joining us on this air of shabas pares by a 434 candle lighting time in New