Nachum and Rabbi Steven Pruzansky on the Latest News from Israel and the Upcoming Israeli Election

on a JM and the AM Tuesday morning broadcast. And I thank all of you for tuning in. The um Rabbi Ammeritis at um the Young Israel, excuse me, at the um Congregation Buran in Tene, New Jersey. uh who is now living in Israel and also serves as the senior international affairs research associate for the Jerusalem center for applied policy and the Israel region vice president for the coalition for Jewish values is of course Rabbi Steven Pzanski and we always enjoy his analysis his updates from his perspective on current events and there's a lot to talk about today that's for sure Ry Pzanski a happy healthy sweet new year to you and welcome back to JM and the AM >> you as to you and all your listeners. >> Appreciate that very much. So, two weeks from today will be the election. Do you think the uh the the heated uh environment in Israel will only last two weeks or do you suspect once election day is over and all of the uh dealings begin uh we'll have plenty more of it uh to go through even post election? >> Yes. Well, it's uh it's going to carry on a little while until there's some resolution. The downside is that if the LI could and win again, then the left will be relentless in their protests as they were in the previous cycle. And so that's not going to uh bode well for short-term stability uh and peace and quiet. But nonetheless, we'll get through that. Also, all depends on the outcome. >> You always have an interesting perspective. um on these things. And to me, and I don't think this is a surprise to my audience, they know how I have felt about Natanyao throughout this entire four-year term, especially after October 7th. But I mean, how do you evaluate? How do you um account for the way he has survived politically in a really, really challenging time to do that? And that he's as strong now politically. I don't want to say as strong as ever, but certainly as strong as a strong candidate would expect it would be expected to be. >> That's a very good question. In Israel, uh, he's known as the cosame, the magician, but I don't think a lot has to do with magic. Very often, elections turn on who the opponent is and what the opponents are proposing. And for a very long time already, the opposition has proposed only one thing. Get rid of BB. >> Right? And that's not enough to run on any more than it's enough to run and you know be anti-Trump. You have to be pro- something. And I think his uh opponents have failed in that. Now, mind you, one of the anomalies of Israeli life is almost all of his opponents either worked for him or appointed by him at a certain time in the last 15 years. So, he basically is responsible for the Israeli political system. There's no one who's outside his orbit. and he continues to remain the Kyo's son around which everything else revolves and that's the essence of the campaign. Are you with him or against him? Will you sit with him in a coalition or will you not for the voter? Are you probabil and simplistic way of understanding elections? But nonetheless, that's how it's become. And by the way, the le could does it in turn. They're not proposing anything. Their big slogan this cycle is yamin ostin. In essence, either vote rightwing or you'll get a Palestine. It's not really saying anything. Natano himself a little over 16 years ago came out in favor of Palestinian state with conditions. But nonetheless, everything becomes about him. And that itself is unhealthy. I'll tell you one other thing that's unhealthy about Israeli politics. It's a very interesting factoid for your listeners that I discovered about a year ago. From Israel's very first election until the election of 1996, the leading party in every government always had at least 40 seats in the Knesset, which is a sizable quantity. It's a third of the Knesset. from 1996 meaning Natano's first victory until today the leading party has never had 40 seats in the Knesset which means the society becomes much more polarized and the number of people therefore who voted for the prime minister a very small percentage now has maybe 25% that means 75% of the people did not want him as prime minister different perspective Ive when Bennett became prime minister 96% of the electorate had voted against him being prime minister and yet he was. So a lot of it had to do with raising the threshold which paradoxically strengthened the smaller parties and gave them more influence. Exactly the consequence that no one anticipated but nonetheless it does make for a very unstable polarized electorate. every move they've made in the last 30 years has strengthened the smaller parties. I mean many times without intention, but it it seems like that's happened every single time. And you talk about the diversity or the you know how divided people are and that's you know one of the proofs that you can't get 40 seats anymore. In addition to that obviously as you're alluding to the reliance on the smaller parties becomes so much greater and they end up controlling so much of this deal making both before and after the election. What do you think by the way of the deals you've heard about in the last few days? Like is there anything that stands out in terms of you know a gamecher among these parties? No, the real gamecher was for the first time in the only poll in Israel I respect the Miluimnikim of Yaz Handel and the economists crossed the threshold and that again for the first time since the polling in this election Lee could fell below 30 seats >> and the the right-wing majority the right-wing coalition has 61 according to the latest poll. But again, and here's the latest surprise. The Karedi parties announced or basically demitted to no one that they should not be considered part the right governing coalition coalition. Now, if that's the case, actually fell below a majority governing uh coalition. But, you know, with the Karedi parties, it all comes down to two things. So whoever they get the best deal from in terms of money and exemptions that is the the coalition that they will join. So that is open-ended. They are losing seats though. I wouldn't say votes but they are definitely losing votes. some to the new Karedi party to which is giving them an alternative and some because I think people already they they've become disenchanted with the nature of the leadership and their lack of desire to fully integrate into Israeli society. >> Wow. I I I mean the way you just described it that would say that there's you know a real division between the leadership and many more of the constituents in the Karedi world. Is it that significant? Is it is it a real thing so to speak? I think it's safe to say that there's a disconnect between the leadership, including the rabbitic leadership, and the average person on the ground who realizes that their lifestyle in terms of assuing military service employment can no longer be sustained in this society. And the leadership is having a hard time accepting that. Consider their members of Knesset are elected for two things. to get money for the yeshivot and welfare and to avoid army service. That's why they were elected. So they the the two heads were unceremoniously kicked out a few weeks ago right before the list was announced because the brand has become toxic. Their their parties who will say openly they will not sit with. So I I think again we're looking at a 2022 situation where it will be weeks until a coalition is formed and the nature of that coalition is indeterminate and I'll just remind you and your readers of one thing that Natalo historically has very been has been very willing to make coalition deals with the center left and even the left. I mean he's the one who made la minister over a decade ago in order to form a coalition. So so most of the time he's brought the in and other times he's excluded them and the religious Zionist party as well. So a lot depends really on numbers and each mandate is going to matter in terms for having a bit of trouble with the phone line. If we have to reconnect we will. So essentially what you're saying is that if a road will exist post the 27th of October, election day, two weeks from today, if a road will exist for Natanyao to form some type of coalition and remain as prime minister, expect that road to be taken. >> Yes, that is what I anticipate. And there's no doubt that he has his preferences already. It's an open secret in Israel that he would love to jettison and Ben, >> right? >> Not necessarily for good reasons, but he's willing to jettison them in order to bring in a center-left party. So, that's always a possibility. Benvir speaks openly about it. I'm sure that's a concern in the religious Zionist party as well. But again, it's going to be a short period of uncertainty. Not to mention that we're living in a part of the world where instability is the norm >> and no one knows from one week to the next what's going to happen in the country surrounding us. And that being said, you should know we're in a very very pleasant time in Israel now. Not just the weather, but in terms of security, external, internal, in terms of the way we understand uh we appreciate life here. Things are much more stable than they've been in years. Even thank God uh relative lack of terror. I mean, there's still threats and stonings, etc., but everything is on even the Arabs said they're trying not to give Netanyahu any uh additional advantage in the election. So, they're refraining as much as possible with their acts of terror. >> Pre-election come. Interesting. All right. Steven Pzanski is with us. I think it was in a conversation with you. Honestly, it may have been another conversation about the election. Um, but some are predicting that Lieberman is going to be a protest vote against Netanyahu, that he might be stronger, and I know it's hard to predict in Israel that he might have a stronger showing two weeks from now than expected. Uh, you have anything to say about that? Do you think that he is uh uh that he might enjoy a a greater piece of this than he has in the past? >> I don't actually because I think his brand has been tarnished. Also, he hasn't actually manifested a right-wing policy in many, many years. He's perceived as anti-religious. He wants to be basically a 2022 Bennett in which other parties, including maybe some disenchanted members of the right, will elect him as prime minister, even though his party winds up with only eight seats in the Knesset. Eight seats or so. Uh already there's a lot of talk today that he should not be even considered a right-winger. He's been on the left for so long. and Benny Gunce in fact who won't be elected his party's far below the threshold said that in 2020 Lieberman was pushing him and others to form a government with both Arab parties not just Ram of Mansour Abbas which is I hate to use the term even quasi Zionist or they they maybe appreciate Israel a little more even though they're founded by the Muslim Brotherhood but the Balot party which is completely anti-Israel and anti-ionist Lieben wanted to form a coalition with them just to get rid of Natanyao. So I I think people are on to him and even his voters. I mean the way to help your constituents is to be part of a government and then share the spoils of victory with them. But with him it's been the exact opposite. The antipathy that he has towards Netanyahu and again it was Natao who brought who brought him into politics. the antipathy the antipathy that he has is so profound that he cannot sit with tonel at all and that affects his voting base also. >> Yeah. Uh you've always given us great analysis of the US actions and Israel's actions against Iran. Uh the United States election I'm sure you know election day is three weeks from today. You'll be voting in Israel two weeks from today. United States voting three weeks from today. Do you think once the midterms are over there will be further action by the United States against Iran uh or is this going to end up in some type of negotiation down the line? I think there has to be because if Iran is starting to rebuild, then they'll remain a threat not only to the United States and Israel but all the Gulf states as well. to allow the Iranian threat to metastasize again would essentially give them control over the straight of Hormuz and uh the export of a good chunk of the world's oil. The downside is that the Arab the uh Arab countries, the Gulf countries, including the Saudis are pleading with the US not to attack because they fear that their infrastructure cannot be protected, cannot be defended against Iranian attacks. By the same token, Iran might be rebuilding its missile capacity, but it at this point does not have any type of anti-aircraft defense and therefore they are very vulnerable. But on the third hand of this octopus, they they're basically radical millennialists suicidal. So they don't care what happens to their people and therefore they could do anything to remain in power. Their economy as Trump often says and this is something he says that is true. Not everything he says is true. This is true. Their economy their economy is shot. They have no economy. They have no exports. They have no income. They are trading over land between other countries. But it's minuscule compared to what they were doing before. So they are going broke. Something has to give. Uh it is possible that uh I think unlikely but it is possible they'll make they'll try to make some type of deal. They'll try to finesse it, kick the can down the road long enough until Trump is no longer able to act against him. But my sense is that there will be further attacks on Iran in order to further u minimize their capabilities, both uh ballistic and uh missile and nuclear. >> Do you think that Trump regrets what's what he's been doing since February with the midterms looming like this? Yeah. So, I can't ever get myself into his head. Um, uh, he has more hair than I have, for sure. Uh, so I can't I can't really understand his thought process. He look, he is prednaturally against war. Understandable. He does not want Iran to uh to build a nuclear weapon, which is also understandable from an American perspective because they then will dominate the Middle East. On the other hand, he he embarked on a halfway measure, meaning he dees deescalated much too quickly and as a result, he let Iran off the hook and in fact gave Iran the opening to try to close the straits of Hormuz. You know, I I I do know what Trump says uh every other day that the the US has 100% control over the Straits of Hormuz. It's just not true, >> right? But he could say it, but it's just not true. There are more tankers getting out almost as much as before the war, but there are also tankers and other foreign vessels that are being blown up by the Iranians. I don't know how well that's reported in America, but that does happen. So, this is ongoing. I mean, again, a big part of this is no one really knows who's in charge now in Iran. that Ayatollah, son of Kamei, has not appeared in public since the initial attack that killed his father. So, no one really know. It could be they they hide because they want to become targets, but no one really knows who's making the decisions. And occasionally because of that, you have different elements of Iran speaking in different ways and not consistent ways. You know, I I know when the US entered into the memor memorandum of understanding is it was with the speaker of the parliament, >> but who says the speaker of the parliament has any authority? I mean, does a foreign country make a deal with Mike Johnson, who's the house speaker? Of course, it has no authority. But that's the problem in Iran. Their leadership really was devastated. And as a result of that, it's not known who to talk to. And it's also not known that they can actually implement anything to which they would agree. But there is one given and that is they are a malign and malicious force in the world. Certainly in the Middle East but across the entire world also. >> Rabbi Steven Pzenski. He is the senior international affairs research associate at the Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy, vice president of the Coalition for Jewish Values. Did anybody approach you about joining a party list for this election? >> Uh actually people have spoken to me. I always say I'm not corrupt enough to be in the cassette. Even I even I'm not corrupt enough. No. Uh it's the the truth is politics has descended into the theater of the absurd. And I've noticed over the last few years that there are some very, very effective parliamentarians who don't get much publicity because they go about their business crafting bills, trying to get allies from other parties to join and they're very successful and they're rewarded with it by getting very low slots in the primaries. And on the other hand, you have members of Kesset who are basically just media personalities. They'll give interviews about they'll do this and they'll do that and this should be done and this shouldn't be done but they don't actually accomplish anything but people you know the the oy are very impressed with them because you turn on the television listen to the radio they are always there but as parliamentarians they're not accomplishing much so politics is really >> not for me I'm confused >> I I love to I love to quibble from the outside >> no but I'm confused the first group meaning are not actual Knesset members, but they're involved in the government. >> No, no, they are. No, I I don't want to mention name, but there are Knesset members who are very effective as parliamentarians, and they're now like 32 or 38 on the leood list. >> Ah, they've been they've been they've been sabotaged. Now, I get what you're saying. >> They Right. Right. Because the the voters like the people who are loud. It's a feeding frenzy. You like uh the fish likes its bait. So someone who's a diehardly good supporter or for that matter Golan supporter, they love when they're aggressive and unrestrained and uh and and and rabid in their pronouncements. It it makes for good television, but it has nothing to do with being in the Knesset. And so uh I remember years ago I heard that when Ravio the great Ravi was elected Knessa I don't think he lasted more than a year or two and he said that he doesn't have enough shirts that can survive the necessity of tearing Korea. >> Wow. Look there are others. I mean we can look at Benny Bean. Look at Kanan Parat. I mean there are people who just it never it never was matim for them. >> Yes. Kanaman Parat is a good example of someone who's very very principled. I loved him very much. Very principled. He had good hashkafa and he was very self-sacrificing and yeah he eventually was voted out but uh nonetheless he still has tremendous influence today because people think back to what he was and what the Knesset was like then by the way as in Israel is in America there's such divisiveness in the Knesset. You know, people used to be able to work together from different parties and now that's almost completely unknown. In fact, like if you take judicial reform for example, there was nothing that was proposed that Knesset members on the left did not support at one time, but they simply could not support it because that's that's voting for the other team. It's a terrible way to manage a country. And I think almost every democracy in the world is afflicted with that type of polarization today. Wow. Amazing. Uh K, we we appreciate your insight so much and thanks so much for the time and I hope that uh you'll find the time to go to the polls and actually vote in Israel. >> I thought you were going to ask me what the election results are are going to be. Forget it. >> Well, they say it's impossible to predict in that country. Honestly, we we've learned in the United States it's really impossible to predict anywhere at this point. >> That's correct. That's correct. >> Except for one election. Mayor of the city of New York, I think, was a fat complete going into the Yeah, apparently so. Apparently so. >> And are you w I don't know how closely you're following this side of the world. It sounds like you're following it very closely. There are so many legislators local meaning, you know, assembly people, state senators, etc. And obviously, uh, you know, US senators, etc., and US House of Representative members. There's so many who are now drifting and leaning into this whole DSA policy. There's so many people who never would have quoted the type of policies and statements that are coming from city hall in New York who now are jumping aboard and and and and it is it's amaz I mean and I know a lot of people don't have you know principles and values that they stick by. I get it. But this world of politics as you probably have warned people over the last many decades. They they change on a dime just because they think it's going to get them a few extra votes. >> Right. Well, it it is unprincipled to be sure, but there's something else. That's where the votes are, right? >> Meaning in elections, especially midterm elections, it's the most enthusiastic people who come out to vote. Turnout is relatively low. You're lucky if you get a 40% turnout. In America, here turnout, by the way, is between 75 and 80%. But in America, you get a 40% turnout. It's the most enthusiastic who vote. The most enthusiastic people in America today are these Democratic socialists. Especially, they're emboldened to go to the polls because it's quite alluring to think that you elect politicians who will give you other people's money. So, why not go out to vote for that? And it's not as if anything else going for them. Most they're not gainfully employed. They're activists, community organizers. That's what they are. But the if the average person does not vote, you're going to wake up with a different America in uh come January 1st. >> And and and the sad part is, you know, everyone always says it and people think it's rhetoric that our community really can control certain elections, especially the more local ones, but it's 100% true. If we were really motivated and really were able to convince, you know, uh our neighbors and friends and and create a uh an atmosphere where everyone feels they've got to go out and vote, we really could swing, especially the more local elections. >> You're correct. And I don't think the Jewish turnout in these elections exceeds that of the non-Jewish turnout. Exactly the same. The same type of apathy. But again, I mean, to be a little critical, they'll be the ones to complain about the state of the government afterwards and how the government is unsympathetic to Jews or bad for the economy or foreign policy. They'll complain, but they won't vote. And that's the power that every individual has to shape the future in some small way. Go out and vote. >> Are you suggesting that at times members of the Jewish community find time to complain? Wow. every Well, not not since I left, but uh >> when you when you were around, they they stepped it up. Huh. They really >> When I was around, I heard it. But you know, the Jewish complaints go back to Moshe and the Midbar, so what are we talking about? >> Yeah. So true. It's so in our >> I once I I once said this to someone and he said, "Well, you're not Moshe." And I said, "Yeah, but you're not on the level of Dar Midbar." >> It's in our DNA. It's literally in our DNA. >> Correct. That is correct. >> All right, Brzenski, thank you so much. Best regards. Looking forward to reuniting with you in the Holy Land. >> My pleasure. Colto, >> there he is. Right, Stephen Brzenski. Uh, two weeks till this election and then who knows what's going to happen afterwards as we're going every day we're going to wake up finding out who's, you know, proposing what type of deal and what type of arrangement for who to be prime minister. And h it's really uh it's a painstaking process. And not just for those who have to campaign 20 hours a day. Even for those of us who have to obser even for those of us who don't vote, who just have to observe it. More coming up. You're listening to Jam in the