Fourcast Episode 7: Does Trump have Big Mo(mentum)?

two groups in American politics a small percent of Democrats on the left and the overwhelming percentage of Republicans who are aligned on one issue they both want Israel and support for Israel to be a one party issue they both want the isra strong steadfast support of Israel to be a republican issue St St saying Kamala Harris's closing message her uplifting Joy closing message is vote for me because Donald Trump is unstable what a compelling [Music] argument welcome to the forecast where four from pundits talk politics meet the allstar lineup I'm Benyamin Rose Misha magazine editor at large I'm my litwak teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm Stu loer longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative comment okay so let's get down to politics the most Monumental election in our lifetime is only a few days away and you're here listening to the forecast the only place where you are going to receive really timely information some bold predictions and of course rigorous debate as we enter into this election day and we find out what's going to happen who's going to control the house who's going to control the Senate and who is going to sit in the white house we're going to kick it off right away Big Mo which is called Big momentum George Bush Senior referred to it he said I got Big Mo on my side I got big momentum let's go and then all of a sudden he saw his momentum fall apart as he famously went after Reagan and lost Reagan so who has big momentum who had that Big Mo energy going into this presidential race and what does it mean let's kick it off with Stu what do you think Stu who's got the momentum well I'm going to remind you that the author of the first Mo of the Big Mo that you just talked about lost re-election so let's take his advice with a grain of salt Donald Trump has spent this week arguing that he is stable and arguing that the crazy things that were said by people who support him in and around him are not really what he thinks even though they are KLA Harris is making the case to voters I don't know that it's big and flashy but defending yourself against arguments about Nazis comparisons to the Nazis and other incredibly racist things is not a good closing argument she has a normal argument he has an erratic closing argument just like the entire campaigns she's pretty normal he's pretty erratic do you think benman you think that's that's that's a case of big momentum or not you agree with steu or not here I've come out and said that Harris's concept of pushing the fascist trip on Trump is failure that most people who dislike like Ari fler said this the other night also that most people who already dislike Trump dislike him and she's not going to make anyone else who already doesn't dislike him dislike him so therefore you hav try another attack and I agree with that but the both working hard and the race is coming down to the wire right bamin is right there is a disagreement among Democrats about whether or not we should be how much we should be talking about how Donald Trump is a fascist but there's no disagreement that he seems enthralled with fascists Ellie do do you I I heard a lot from people who said to me why is Trump in masin Square Garden I mean I know Harris is going to be doing a rally in DC but why are there are we missing a swing stay opportunity in New York or is it really spiking the football that the Trump team feels like they have all the momentum on the side they can pull off a rally like that like educate us a little bit here what's going on Ellie because because it's I'm a little I'm a little confounded myself on that so I'm happy you asked that question cuz a good way to to marry these two questions together the question regarding momentum there's no such thing as momentum in a presidential election like know the famous say there but says the only poll that matters is the one that's taken on Election Day and recently in the two weeks before election day as well when really voting starts but what would norly be defined as momentum is movement what we do see is virtually everywhere especially in the National poles which on their own are quite meaningless but they do show a trend everything about this race is moving in Trump's Direction you see Trump like I said a couple of weeks ago Trump best closer modern politics in the last couple of weeks he's just been picking up steam and you don't just look at Trump as being the only one who's picking up steam down the ballot as well go to Every swing state take a look at the polling in I know St not everybody can see this it's not true because they might races all the Senate races are within the margin of eror all the contest I didn't say that yeah we got that every they're all within the margin I'm talking about movement they shouldn't be within the the margin of error because you've got incumbent Democrats who've been on the scene for a long time he's only within the margin of Victory now these are these are incumbent Democrats and they what Bel that's true but my point is on top of that be is that two or three weeks ago these races were not within the margin of error two 3 weeks ago the de Democrats had bed still again shaking his head see look everyone a couple of weeks back Bob Casey had a three fourpoint lead back few weeks ago but here's the point here's the point just to bring it all back together is that there are a lot of down ballot races that matter to have to be able to have a governing agenda when Trump goes into places where people get all hung up on there there two poses people get all hung up up why is he there why is he there the are D ballot races that matter and Trump is the turnout factor in elections which he runs in like nothing else and when he goes to places he gets people to P vote which is why do and this you know because I know you know you look at the data the same way I do we see all the early voting the coming in we're the Republican early vote that's coming in is low propensity voters St you know you and I like to listen to the what's what people are saying I mean I'm I always like to sort of measure it by who am I hearing more of a freak guy from right who am I am you know the Republican insiders Democratic insiders like who am I hearing more of a freak out from and so if the week went and ebed and flowed like I heard it earlyer in the week I heard it from the Democratic party then the Madison Square Garden rally happened and I heard it from the Republican party then Biden's statement came out which and then I heard it back from the Democratic party I I mean I do think that there is just a a degree here which is um it's going back and forth a little bit but I mean it is the last week which is just just struggling here a little bit because I got to I gota let's pivot a little bit here into the second question which I want to ask folks which is we've a number of us have have been on these campaigns the last 72 hours is the most critical like the early voting to a degree it's like okay but okay great Democrats came out earlier we have no idea how they're going to vote we have no idea how Independents are going to vote we don't know that we don't we have no idea if there if that those are the people who were going to vote anyway on we know we some idea idea it's the pollsters have been all over the place okay okay none of us are sitting here and saying that pulled me this so we're going to we're going to we're going to rest our prediction on that and T are hurting so let's just pivot a little bit here which is and I want to give it to Stu here just so he can respond to some of this also and then just go is you're Harris and you have 72 hours what do you do to close the deal on this like what do you do to close and we'll turn around ask same for Trump you have 72 hours here stew and at this point right now I think the Democrats are more nervous based on what Biden just said so like that's the nature of politics you have 72 hours Democrats to be nervous it's know except forer except for I think of another group of of individuals that we are all a group that we're all part of that's also in their nature to be to be nervous about things for good reason he has made the closing case that Trump is unstable and you cannot trust him to govern and he's not the person she is imperfect he is unstable she is imperfect he is unable to do the job that's her closing argument and that's what she and that's what she's going with it is the argument not for the most loyal Democrats but for the people the small number of people who are still out there trying to say I don't really like either of them yeah you don't really like either of them one of them may not be to your taste the other one may be poison Ellie give it to us in the framework or what would you do with if you were Harris in the last 72 hours if you were being objective and not a jokeer response because we'll try to get a good objective political response from St also if you were being objective what would you do if you were her of your 72 hours knowing based on mistakes she's made to to this point well it's hard to have your response it's not a joke for response when she's been running a joke of the campaign you pulled it out here's the thing and this is why is a difficult question for wor all joking aside she's run a campaign that's been devoid of substance and still saying it is essentially saying it now himself Stu Stu saying kamla Harris's closing message her uplifting Joy closing message is vote for me because Donald Trump is on stage what a compelling argument nobody's going to turn out and nobody I'm sure the people who are but there AR going to be new voters and not finding new voters by saying the other guy he's been president for 4 years and things were by every subjetive measure better under his presidency okay true is unstable and everything is going to go to Pat if he gets into office it's not something that to DET other people so what she needs to do she needs to do and this is where her hardship is and where this campaign I appreciate the hardship is she needs to make a pen argument for her candidacy and she has yet to do that they every single time they ask you you watch these interviews you were a couple yesterday that people trust Trump more B what do you think what would you do if you were her for the last 72 hours what Aris needs to do in the last 72 hours of the campaign how you think is to uh tell the truth what I think isn't the truth as little as possible because every time she gives interviews she says nothing every time she makes a campaigning appearance she looks like a giggly person and you know she doesn't I don't know she to me she doesn't really come across as a serious person and I think the more she's out there the more people look at her and say wow this why I want to be the president of the United States so if I were her I would L as low as possible in the last 72 hours and hope hope for the best I disagree I I've never B in the narrative that she's not a Ser serious person I mean she has a very serious resume she's a I think she's a serious person I think that the if I were in the last 72 hours I think that the key here is not to fall into the Trump trap which which so many candidates have been falling into and I think one of the reasons why she's losing momentum over the last month is that when you fall into a trap where you were attacking Trump you were building a free media narrative for him and when you are falling into that which I think basically happened with Madison Square Garner rally here I think that is a disaster I think that there was a month where she was just making the case for herself which I think was what Ellie was saying to some degree where she was just crushing Trump and I think when she pivoted and started doing this other thing I think that it's been harder sleding for her making the case against Trump and I think that there's a f balance to do it but once it sort of tips over I think Trump just completely eats into that b give it your flip on there what would you do if you were Trump in the last 72 hours well I just want to say one thing I want to push back a little bit of what you said yeah kamla Harris might have the good resume but it doesn't mean she's done a good job at those positions I mean there's a lot of people who have good resumes but you know check out their performance all of us what what have they really accomplished so but now flipping to Trump he also asked to avoid making mistakes in the last three days the Madison for garden rally it wasn't a mistake it could have been a good thing but again take a look at some of the people who came up there and uh and gave speeches there there were no reason for them to be up on a platform I I personally don't want to hear from entertainers and comedians a week before the election I want to hear what the president is going to do if he takes office if he wins the election so that's what I think Trump has do I just has to cut the nonsense which I know is hard for him because he's an Entertainer himself and that's part of what he tries to do and he he's just got to stick to policy he's he's got to tell voters the ones who haven't voted yet and more than 50 million have and uh mainly the Republicans are are still sitting on the fence and also some of the Independents like why should you vote for me and he's got to tell them this is what I'm going to do for you know re really just very pointed two three policy prescription that he's going to do that's going to make things better for people I made predictions we have predictions in the mbaka magazine this week but also we'll make them at the end but one of the reasons why I think that Trump is is going to win is because I've heard anecdotally from a number of Democrats that they still were sort of undecided on who they were going to vote for and I've never heard that from the Republican side they're very confident so my advice to this in this last 72 hours for the for republicans and for the Trump World is just to get your base out and you got to get your base out if you want to win because they're not sort of want wondering if they're going to vote or not I think that obviously that would be my advice Ste what do you think here in terms of the last 72 hours would you do if you were the Trump campaign and I'll I will I'll permit a good joke for you as well to respond to Ellie not taking it Ser only a good one we try to give an objective opinion of what Trump what Stu believes with his Harris walls hat he Trump should do in the last 72 hours aside from dropping out look Ellie and I had a had an inter on X the former Twitter this week maybe it was last week who knows there's been so many Kim about candidates and taking a day off and who's doing what my question was to him if Trump is doing so well in Florida he's supposedly up double digits we have a lot of listeners to in Florida's early vote so some of them have voted some of them haven't why is he campaigning in Miami with Latinos and doing a healthcare event and Ellie gave me an answer and then I talk to a a person I work with who a different client who is an adviser to the governor in Florida and said what is the Santa's World tell like why is Trump there and and the distinct impression he didn't of course didn't say but the the sort of distinct impression is hey it's about Rick Scott it's like Ellie said it's about the Senate seats and it's about Rick Scott whose numbers are plummeting as I said mishak this week at this time eight years ago in all the close Senate races the Democrats were already losing ground in the last two weeks that was the canary in the cold mine we don't see it this time so as a person who wants Trump to lose and wants the Democrats I my advice would be to Trump continue compaining in states where it's really close because you're driving people to split their votes in States like Florida where he's going to win the presidential you're driving people to say unstable Trump may win maybe we should have a bit of a of a check and balance and and not hardcore Republicans but regular people are splitting their votes and voting Trump for president and the Democrat for Senate and that didn't that the difference between me and Ste is that St his jokes at a straight face didn't seem like sincere advice allly what what what do you got for us you talk to people in the Trump orbit very confident but obviously cens into the fact that you have to run through the tape Trump needs to keep on keep on doing events in places where turn out of the lower propensity voter which is the unique Trump voter is needed still in in previous podcast also they also voters for Harris what Happ what Ste previous part in previous um episodes has said Trump is doing Trump is old Trump has been doing less events I just want to just pull up from the times's event tracker Trump is doing more events than Harris more media appearances but we all know that and more rallies then Harris also so one of them maybe is old than decrepit it's definitely not Trump and Trump is going to be running through the tape that's what Trump needs to do Trump needs to keep on going to the places where he needs to drive the lower propensity voted to the PS and keep on pushing them out the V cuz he's the turnout machine we've had uh a lot of situations here where people feel interrupted and they feel like they've cut short hey I want to disagree with that I don't feel that way yeah you're wrong more you're wrong listen to those people those people are lying I'm trying to segue I'm trying to segue gentlemen I'm trying to segue we've had many situations where by the way they Prov they're saying I'm not I I don't people don't feel like that while they interrupt me no don't listen to he's not telling the truth listeners don't listen to him yeah we anyways Ponder the rules were that there would be no interruptions anyway we've had situations where we F where maybe at times we felt cut off or not that we've been able to get our our thoughts fully developed or interrupted whatever it may be so instead of the Ling around we're going to be doing a one last thing where we give each of our panelists an opportunity to opine and give their One Last Thing Before the election I'm going to close it off with one which I think will be popular but let's give it over to benam what's your one last thing let me finish let give you that one last thing I would like to see the candidates stop with the name calling this I guess relates to what they should be doing the last 72 hours also but uh uh look you know Harris calls Trump a fascist to me he's a republican Trump calls Harris a communist to me she's a Democrat there's all sorts of name calling and mudslinging going on and it's very Unbecoming the United States is supposed to be the greatest country in the world you know Trump talks about how he wants uh the us to have the greatest economy in the world and the greatest military in the world and uh the greatest opportunity in the world and the truth is Harris wants the same thing too so you know stop with the mudslinging stop with the name calling it's really it's beneath their dignity and it's also beneath the Dignity of the American people they deserve better I don't really like to bring up this Jimmy Carter line because it fell flat but Jimmy Carter when he was running for president said that the American people deserve a president as good as they are now Carter fell short of that but really that should be the model and I'd like to see these candidates public office behave better I love that I think that's fantastic Ellie what do you got for us what's the one last thing I just responding to V I think that first of all I think that the American people do deserve a president you know as rud as they are and we usually get that and that's just the case my last thing that I I want to talk about is that we concentrated a lot on polls and polls tend to be a choose your own adventur sort of landscape you can fall there's so much public polling out there you can find the pole you want to hang your head on saying oh look this pole tells me what I wanted to tell me you have to be able to understand what poly is to be able to use it to understand the race even when you look at all the polls badly you have to know we know say in 2020 that there was a massive po ER which severely undercounted Trump's Trump's vote in 2016 the same thing happened now people quot that 2022 and then saying 2022 Po's overcounted Republicans we know there's a very big difference between 2022 and 2020 that Trump was on the ballot Trump is not on the ballot we don't know what are the differences and the the upholsters to be able to tell us what's going to be so I think that we're one thing that that everybody needs to recognize and nobody does at least out loud is that we're in such Uncharted Territory in having so much purported data which tells us so little that we're really not prepared for whatever might happen election night do I I actually am really grateful of this question and I'm really grateful for Ellie's setup of things that have been unreported I think the big unreported question the most important unreported issue particularly of interest to our listeners and our readers our followers is the very real Dynamic that two groups in American politics a small percent of Democrats on the left and the overwhelming percentage of Republicans who are aligned on one issue they both want Israel and support for Israel to be a one party issue they both want the isra strong steadfast support of Israel to be a republican issue the Republicans because kot they should and a small Fringe even in New York Fringe part of the Democrats because that way they don't have to do with it at all they don't have to be moderate the reality is that kamla Harris and Joe Biden are far better on Israel than they're being told and one thing that came out this week you made a reference to one of the videos is is JD Vance on the Tom Dillan show saying Israel has a right to defend itself but America's interest is sometimes going to be distinct which is a reasonable view for a vice president it's also the view of every Administration America is Israel's best friend and there will be a little bit of day we live in this world in which we have been told in our Echo chamber that only the Republicans support Israel that's good for the Republicans and it's good for the extremist Democrats it's not good for people who are living in the real world a world in which Republicans never win the popular vote except for after 911 in almost any of our lifetimes not since Ronald Reagan making Israel just the issue for the less popular party is an extreme disservice so all of our listeners in Florida all of our listeners in Nevada all of our listeners in Pennsylvania Ohio Michigan think about the Folly and the bad idea of making Israel a onep party issue particularly when that party says they're going to have daylight with Israel too I actually agree would still 100% that it's definitely not in our interest to make not Israel and not anti-Semitism a world party issue I appreciate all the the panelists very thoughtful responses which really we could do we could spend entire programs acting each of them and talking about them I will give my one thing which is very predictable which is after every election that I've ever been involved in going back decades I've gone to community members I've sat at shabas tables and I've asked the question did you vote and the answer is usually about a quarter or a third of people did not vote even higher in Municipal elections Etc we have to get to a point where it becomes like the it's a busha to not vote it's like what you couldn't vote how did you not vote in and I was literally at a meeting yesterday where people said to me well I don't want to get jury duty and I don't want I don't know how to do it and it's a pain and I don't want to be aware that's why I wear this hat that's why we have to take it more seriously the hat if you're listening just says don't fetch vote it's all about education and so if you voted and you care about it go out and educate people I'm not going to sit here and tell forecast listeners to go vote because I'm sure you're going and voting if you listen to this but go out there and make the case to people about why they should vote why they should vote in every election go and just do a little education because when we educate people and we explain to them how important local state federal elections are to their day-to-day lives not just what they hearing on social media they really understand in our community once the educator really goes out there and votes and we could change the world and we're not a majority of American voting electorate so we have to vote and punch above our weight and we have another opportunity to do it on Election Day so go out there don't cetch go out there and vote very quickly gentlemen fear forecast the ultimate Fearless forecast give us your prediction on the presidency the Senate and the house I'm going to go with I believe that I going to get really granular here I believe that Trump will be elected on Tuesday I believe it's going to he's going to in particular take Pennsylvania he's going to take Arizona and he's going to take Georgia that's to me of the Swing States I think that's what he's going to take I think Senate's going to be at 53 States I'm predicting a red wave for those two not exactly a wave on the president Central side but enough to get the Senate to be bigger I'm hearing enough where I think especially in the Senate races I think that it's going to be 53 on the house I think it's stops and it's going be much closer I think the house the Republicans keep the house and it's about five I think anybody who's heard me on this has thinks I'm I'm in very bipartisan in terms of my analysis and people may not like it but I'm just trying to call balls of strikes and I think that's my Fearless forecast steu what do you think U look I respect you and I respect your bipartisanship I think you're wrong uh I think you're wrong on the Senate um I think we have two states that are in play Florida and Texas in the Senate which should not be in play under any normal rules but for a whole bunch of reasons are I think that the Democrats are going to obviously lose West Virginia but maybe not Montana and I think that the Democrats are going to continue to hold the Senate I think the Democrats will pick up the house which they really only lost the Republicans didn't win the house last time the Democrats lost it by default and by by professional malpractice and I think K Harris is going to win even in my company I'm looking over there there at the predictions on the wall I'm the most bullish I think she's going to win by a healthy margin which states which swing I think she does take Georgia I think she takes North Carolina I think she takes Pennsylvania I think that we I'm not positive about Michigan but I have an employee who spent the weekend in the northern part of Michigan or at least the northern part of the South I don't really know Michigan she literally saw two things she saw Betsy DS's yacht being winterized so that's that part of Michigan and she saw 3 to one ratio three Harris signs for every Trump sign whereas the last two times there were no Democratic sence Ellie what do you got for us Fearless forecast here yeah um with the the disclaimer of when I said earlier about how there there's so much unknown I do think considering everything that we' se there's no by the way there's no we're not we Fearless forast disclimer so just give it to us let's give you idea yes okay fine my Fearless forecast is that Trump wins and I think that all things being equal it's more likely that he sweeps all the swing States then loses them remember he doesn't even have to win all them to win the election he's in perfect shape in the sun Bel States you really only has to win one of the rust Bel States but I think it's more likely that he wins the allall with the Senate I think I know st's been talking for weeks about Rick Scott and Ted Cruz being vulnerable much we this whole Cruz has been vulnerable for four years but yeah yeah I he's been vulnerable for 10 but I think it's more likely that will'll see in Wisconsin Tammy Baldwin in Pennsylvania Bob Casey and Ohio Sher Brown and even more likely that we'll see Jackie Rosen lose in Nevada then seeing either those two moves and in the house I think you'll see a republican majority but just not as robust as even the Senate benel give us precise what do you got for us I know you like precise like we like those precise numbers right so a clean sweep for the Republican as I wrote in the magazine this week either 292 or 212 electoral votes for Trump 5248 5347 in the Senate 225 in the house for the Republicans but if you'll please give me 30 seconds I must go back to something that was said before about Israel being a a two-party issue and it should be but as the only one of this group who lives in Israel you know I just want to point out that I'm looking at the home front command and in the last week There's Been 1457 rocket attacks on Israel that's over 200 day think about that for a minute there's one party or there's one Administration I don't want to blame the Democrats but there's an Administration in power right now who has shown a split personality to Israel instead of moral Clarity and you have another party that's saying okay every once in a while we'll have our differences with Israel so which of those viewpoints would you rather have in uh the Oval Office for the next four years when we're facing four 1457 rocket attacks in a week we I think it's not fear to put that number together with the administration it's not like Hamas didn't fire rackets during the Trump Administration we know that happened as well I think it's fear to say that Trump is much wor stdent in his backing of Israel than the Harris Biden Administration I think that's fear but I don't think it's fear to tie the the Rapids Kamas is going to want to kill Jews and that has want to kill Jews no matter who's in the Ys the question is about who you to support Israel more for on the security end and where where st's argument which I subscribe to is that it's better for Israeli security when it's a bipartisan issue to back Israel and we aren't the ones making it into a one party issue if we make it that Republicans pro-israel Democrats Pro thas then that's what's going to happen and then we lose half of our pH we just have to watch what the people are doing and what they're saying and who's taking who's taking who side with us thank you open your eyes open your eyes and look thank you for the context of the rockets and you know those of us who are here in America I think we all have cousins brothers sisters friends in throughout Israel thank you for that you're the one who mentions it because it's real life you if we're as we're reminding people of context I want to remind that Vladimir Putin is funding and arming Iran and Donald Trump has a questionable love for Vladimir Putin all things being equal who do I trust against Putin and Iran for the sake of Israel I don't trust Donald Trump acting alone to outsmart them I think he might get outsmarted and I would trust almost anyone else on the issue of Putin and his closer alliances with Iran that have developed over last month CH his arming Iran is much everyone else and the Biden family seems to have some questionable relationships with with the Chinese I think I I think this is weird to important it's an important thing to remember um at the end of the day for for all of this um and I think it's a good way to sort of tie into a b at the end of the day you know this is a this is a FR um podcast and we know at the end of the day that La the and we know that at the end of the day whatever you feel about this election kbu doesn't need Donald Trump in the White House to protect you then KB who doesn't isn't heavy cat F sh if Joe Biden's in the white ass or if camela Harris in the white ass and even if bruny Sanders was in the Ys and I know St would probably phrase this saying a little bit differently using different people for it but at the end of the day whether or not er's rooll is going to be secure is not entirely dependent on who's in the White House and that's a very important thing for us to remember as we grow into election I want to thank everybody for a very articulate uh election uh coverage we hope to have more for you I think it's been very informative uh we're very grateful as always you have the opportunity to debate disagree with us email us at podcast mb.com again podcast mb.com until election day and after election day you'll hear more from us we're going to see who who's right and who has to eat some Crow so we're very excited for that thank you all