Fourcast Episode 6: Mega MAGA or Post-Progressive?

this is not election for the mo or for one of the ladik it's an election for the president of the United States I would go with the Trump's track record as president for four years especially when it comes to his policies on Israel which were almost exclusively good versus Harris who has no track record other than being a failed president's vice president I think the Jewish community in general is in a fighting mood and I think there's nothing that the Jewish community and or I would like to fight with FDR more than his horrific history on the Holocaust and his horrific rewriting of history of his biographers afterwards talking about how good he was and the missed opportunities and he really tried which we know is is for the most part complete nonsense and so I'm I'm in a fighting mood you know I like to get in some fights uh around my Cirus sometimes have spirited debates welcome to the forecast where four from pundits talk politics meet the allstar lineup I'm Benyamin Rose mishbah magazine editor at large I'm my litwak teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm St loer longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative commentator okay so let's get down to politics two weeks until the election and we are here with a special H mode edition of the forecast with me today as always are the incredible panelists who are going to give us some insight as we Edge closer and closer to this Monumental election we're going to hear today not just about the election what we think is going to happen but what's going to happen after the election and we jump right into it because a lot of people may not know this but since Reagan there has been a bush a Clinton a Biden a trump on every ticket and so for 40 plus years we've had basically some of the same things again and again but post this election despite what Stu may tell you we may tell you one of these people have to actually lose right know not both of them are going to win after this what's going to happen here what happens to the Republican party what happens to the Democratic party when one of them W wins it seems like there should be somewhat of a reckoning so we're going to talk about that right in there and launch right into it Harris wins what happens to the Republican Party post a Harris Victory St what do you think splits in two potentially really splits in two between one side who is manga and anti-immigrant anti-globalists like Donald Trump says we all know what that means and everything he stands for and a reasonable Centrist Pro legal immigration Pro business pro entrepreneur pro-israel party to me there's no way I don't agree with to because I don't know how we would split into two considering the fact that there doesn't seem to be a trump wing of the party someone could pick up it's not like any of the other presidential candidate sort of picked up the Trump magot World that was able to run with it so I think this Resorts back to what we saw the Republican party previously Ellie what do you think totally different opinion than than both of you on this to be expected right the one thing that we really know right now is the political realignment is real the Republican party is not anymore the corporate party the big business interest party it's not only that it it very much did start pulling in the working-class voter and not just the white working class it pulled in the workingclass order from across racial lines and that I think is going to stay the future is bright because you have young standard bearers like we're seeing now when everyone's getting to CJ devance the Florida governor Ronda santis these are young talent that are going to be able to pick up the flag and run with it then yelan do you agree with that you think that the future is bright for the Republican Party post Trump or you think there's going to be a civil war amongst the Republican Party P two I think what you have to keep your eyes on first is what happens at the r seat Trump's takeover the party is partially through his takeover of the Republican National Committee and his daughter-in-law Lara Trump is one of the chairs of that committee what happens let's say if Trump loses does she get bounced so that'll be the first sign if she doesn't if she can hold her own then that means that the Trump Wing still has control over the party and they'll continue to exert that control if she gets dumped ceremoniously or unceremoniously then I think we'll see some new blood take over and the Republicans will have to rebuild and then the question becomes around who do they rebuild Ellie mentioned some names but there's other options there's also Nikki Haley there's Marco Rubio There's Tom Cotton and I think that would probably be the more moderate type of Republican that Stu was referencing Ellie you have a different opinion but I also just want to drill down as you're talking about these things you talk about a wide bench but these are not a lot of these candidates mentioned both you mentioned B mentioned they have not won these primaries so how in what world are they able to sort of take the flag and go do that yeah so two things first of all just to be's point the reason why Trump really ended up taking over the RNC is part of the reason why it's never going to revert to you know your father's RNC again it's because the people at the RNC were so inept and we doing such an awful job there was a wide opening for him to take over that being said I don't think that there's I know there's the donor class definitely thinks that Nikki Haley is going to be like the future of the party she's not she's the past as much as I enjoy Nikki Hy's tenure at the UN but she's the past not the future candidates who are talking the language of the new Republican base are the ones who are going to be able to take it and move it forward into the future let's give Stu the last word on this before we move to the Democrats to really irritate all of our Republican listeners Stu give us a final word on how you think the Republican part is going to go I've absolutely end up agreeing with Ellie Republican party is going to become more MAA and it leaves everyone thaty talks about the donor class but it's the pro bus Centrist reasonable Republicans are going to be homeless and looking for a place to go the Inver question is Trump wins seemingly there's a huge Reckoning within the Democratic party they had to replace with it they had to replace Biden they had to scramble for that there were certainly a lot of good candidates on their bench and they had to go with this sort of overnight process which wasn't much of a process and so there should be somewhat of a very large Reckoning as the the Obama Administration basically isn't the future of that party so who grabs that party who takes that over Ellie you let's start with you on that you could add your commentary on what St said as well the first thing that the Democrat part is gonna have to do I'm sorry St Democratic Democratic is gonna have to do is they're gonna have to come to grips with once again letting Barack Obama down um the man keeps on going out on the campaign Trail telling everybody how much he expects more from them and how much everybody who doesn't vote for com Harris is letting him down so that's the first thing that lead some epic hoping sessions um to deal with that the second thing is and this again goes to what St was saying before the donor class is going to be the hardest hit um reporting out um just recently kamla Harris raised a billion dollars billion doar billion dollars so this is the donor the donor the big donor candidate it's not um even Trump it's kamla Harris the bench of the the Democrat Party is not exceptionally deep obviously if kamla Harris loses um and she'll lose Pennsylvania the front runner will be a certain Governor from Pennsylvania who she wasn't so inept she would have picked for her her running mate Josh Shapiro I fully expect Democrat Party to do the Democratic party to do exactly what um rep what um what political parties do all the time which is to learn the exact wrong lesson from the election and double down in all the things alienated voters that make it impossible for them to vote for conal Harris and move forward with that Ben you agree with that assessment do you see the future as brighter for the Democratic party where how do you see see their bench certainly if there had been a convention process I think a lot of stars would have shined within the Democratic party including as Ellie mentioned Josh Shapiro but also Nome and others I think they have a lot of people who there I also think that the other interesting thing also been youngen I'm interested in your thoughts on this is the Democratic party Cole extraordinarily quickly around their candidate including the aoc's of the world also wouldn't you argue that they're more unified and United with their ability to do that than the Republican party is talking about the Democrats being united is something that we're not really used to I saw remember from the 1968 convention in Chicago where the Democratic where the Democratic party was torn apart on the streets they also they picked some pretty bad candidates over the years Mike Dukakis comes to mind more than anybody else I don't know that they have such a deep benching Gavin news makes an attra active appearance but I don't see him as a man of great substance or that he's crazy popular in California people talk about Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan but not that many people know her that nationally the Democrats biggest problem in my mind is that they're basically held in the grips of their Progressive wing and that Progressive Wing gets stronger every year and with every election in Congress almost a 100 or more than a 100 Democrats are now part of the uh Progressive caucus and uh I think they're getting farther away from the values and the interests and the positions of mainstream Americans and that's going to be their biggest shift if they lose this election they're going to have to decide where do they want to go do they want to go to the left and continue in that direction or do they want to drift back to the center I think they're going to go to the left and they're going to have a much harder time attracting votes what do you think do you think there there a leftwing problem that's a growing leftwing problem that's going to split the party you think there's going to be a civil war on the Democratic side look there's going to be absolutely not a civil war but there's going to be a lot of hand ringing and blame setting there's going to be a panel there's going to be a fight about who's on the panel is going to be a fight about what shape the table should be for the peace talks you know students of is modern Israeli history will you know get the reference in which we won't even be able to get anywhere because we all fight about the size of the table we won't be able to get peace but bam is wrong about the left wordss drift of the party it's not true their star it is true no it is not true representative AOC was the sole person the leader of the state Joe Biden's state in faction when people far to her not nearly as left to her or arguing out the party in every Democratic Primary in which is which is in a competitive Congressional race not a safe Democratic SE where sometimes actually you quite often the liberal runs wins not always the more Progressive wins but when there is a case to be made to regular voters to voters who aren't Progressive 100% of the time in Congressional primaries in the last 8 years the more centr less Progressive person one because Democrats ultimately want to win and will win with the candidate who they think is best set for a general election which is why we got KLA Harris in the first place we got kamla Harris of course because she was a vice president and if God forbid Joe Biden hadn't just been deciding whether or not to step down but actually was completely initated she would be the nominee she would be the president but like she's the nominee because she is the Centrist candidate within this world ell give me 30 seconds and's going to close for us in what universe is the most liberal senator in the entire said the Centrist candidate she's absolutely not the most liberal Senator not by any measure she's a gun toing tough un crime prosecutor Ste you can't even say that with a St face no she is a crime prosecutor I remember when I remember four years ago when she ran in the left called her kamla the cop she is a cop vote for her because she's a Copla is a cop yes that is true but she's also she's also the same person who is we'll go through all her list of everybody know we got the point 10 more seconds thing no a Centrist candidate her struggle is because everybody knows she's a lefty and she's trying to convince everyone she's not and everyone can see through it she's not a Centrist not true all right beny give us a final word here in response to what St said about your commentary I'll just repeat the fact that 100 members of the House Democrats which is 50% of their membership are either part of the progressive Democratic caucus or align with it in some way so that tells you that half the party is to the left of center and i' also say just take a look at take a look at the relative positions between the Republican party and the Democratic party on the war that's going on right now between Israel and Gaza and Hezbollah and what might happen with Iran or by the time the S what might have happened in Iran and I think anyone who takes a look at the different positions on that we'll see very clearly that the Democrats are quite far to the left on that as well they're more concerned about the humanitarian issues on the Palestinian side which was caused all those problems were caused by the own rulers and none of them were concerned at all about the 100,000 or more Jews who are out of their homes I know we wor over time but every Democrat who voted against Iron Dome got eliminated in a primary by the Democratic party we've when people vote against Israel because iron is right every everyone everyone everyone because what iron do wait what iron do wait what iron doome means is Israel you've got a missile defense system just sit back take all the attacks don't go on the offense don't fight back against your enemies just sit back and absorb Rockets we got to keep we got to it's mode people have time to listen they have extra time I Benyamin brought up Iran and I want to remind people because it happened ER of yum kipor or yum kipor in some places that Vladimir Putin who Donald Trump sent test to and spoke to seven times at least as president as ex-president M with the supreme leader of Iran if we are could I didn't bring up Iran but if you're gonna bring up Iran say that the Republican party is led by Donald Trump I must say even the New York Times in their article on that said they could not confirm that Trump spoke to Putin seven times okay so we're gonna get on Lightning around here hopefully we keep this episode within time we'll see let's kick it off for col Mo with a little something fun is there someone the last 200 years that you would invite I'm not sure you invite them into your subco but you would invite them in general over subus in general Ellie anybody who comes to mind for you yeah just in the spirit of unity I would choose to sit down with In This Moment Ed cotch just because I think he'd have a great read on the moment and his quote which is my favorite political quote if you agree with me on seven of 10 things vote for me 10 of 10 see a psychiatrist that's the perfect quote for these days but tell me what are you what about you I'm going to go with Napoleon nice that's a little more than 200 years but Napoleon was quite an interesting character who actually had quite a a lot of an influence uh with his War where he uh got into the Middle East and it was a failure for him so I'd like to hear a little bit about what he says in retrospect about foreign involvement in intervention in the Middle East because is basically doomed to failure but I'd also like to hear there's a famous story I don't know if it's urban legend or not but that Napoleon went to a synagogue in Paris on Tish and he saw Jews mourning and said why are they mourning and they told him that they're mourning for the temple that was destroyed 1800 years ago and Napoleon reportedly said that uh if there's people who can mourn for their Temple after 1800 years in their Homeland then uh they have a real hope for regaining them I'd like to know if that's a real urban legend or uh if he really said it and what the context was I like it St I am actually going to agree in part take a a little bit from Ellie and binyamin both Ellie says some he wants someone had C is a great read on the moment Napoleon obviously probably the most famous Frenchman I'm going with Amil Zola author of Z guy who brought the dfus affair to the public eye showed the inherent built-in anti-Semitism of the world and eventually inspired Herzel and and and importantly led to the state of Israel I would like to sit down with him and say excuse me you know more about exposing the hypocrisy an anti-Semitism of an eror than anyone what can you teach us to do today for my sake I that's why I was careful with what the language I said because not everybody I would like to talk to people but not everybody would I have in my actual suup so I would for example would love to talk to FDR and i' like to I think the Jewish community in general is in a fighting mood and I think there's nothing that the Jewish community and or I would like to fight with FDR more than his horrific history on the Holocaust and his horrific rewriting of history of his Auto his biographers afterwards talking about how good he was and the missed missed opportunities and he really tried which we know is is for the most part complete nonsense and so I'm I'm in a fighting mood you know I like to get in some fights uh around my sua sometimes have spirited debates so I don't know if I'd have him in my sua but I definitely would have a fight with him outside of my Su if I could talk with them yeah I definitely would have let in the Su I'd invite everybody there for that fight everyone agrees with me they love that fight okay we've got some questions here from our listeners which is awesome amazing we love listeners hear that our first question comes from stroll who will Trump's lack of focus on mail and balance sty him again and it's funny I told people before the last election that I thought Trump was going to lose and people said to me why do you think Trump's going to lose and I said because he's literally at the time was downplaying the importance of mail and balance in swing States and he was he him and his fets were doing this and so I'm like how how you going to win if you're disc scourging people from voting what do you think Stu I think Trump's lack of focus in general is really problematic for the Republican party I think that him inviting donors in and screaming at them for being disloyal and not doing enough when they've given hundreds of millions of dollars because he wants billions of dollars is problematic I think Trump's inability to talk about anything other than himself and about how he feels as opposed to how regular people feel a sort of second degree calculation people have to make is really problematic mail in I think maybe they fixed it who knows we'll see gent Trump has pushing a lot harder recently on the mail in ballots and early voting I'm just looking at the day that we record at an article in CNN which says that the Trump campaign has sent out 286,000 robocalls in the past week in to voters in swing States in Pennsylvania Georgia Wisconsin Arizona devada and Michigan they're working a lot harder on getting the early vote in than they ever did before and they need to because as I kept saying and writing in my column turnout is going to be the key factor in determining who wins this election absolutely Ellie yeah um I hate to correct The Listener um but the the actual data is not um what the The Listener thinks it is um for example as of this recording three separate states Republican party is up by 96% in requested ballots in Pennsylvania Morey knows how important Pennsylvania is um Nevada % of a low number from four years ago yes but obviously if you're up 96% it's a big number Nevada Nevada however you pronounce it I never get it right Republicans actually lead Democrats and ballots returned and in Florida where in 2020 the Democrats had a 14-point lead in early ballots returned but only six and everybody knows how Florida turned that in 2020 so I don't think it's going to be an issue the question just is whether these increased ballots on the Republican part are cannibalizing election day vote which we know they will win or if there are new voters are voting by mail Yanti Stern asks us he says I see from conversations with my co-workers je and otherwise that although many have their problems with Trump they just don't feel they they like or connect to Harris why do you think that is why don't we give it to Alli first to get the fireworks going people don't like kamla Harris because she's inauthentic you can't connect to somebody who's not real and it's by Design okay I get it because if she's going to say something of substance she's an aliot part of her very fragile Coalition that she's putting together but contrast the two of these the two these two candidates do you think that the comma Harris that you see on this campaign Trail is the kamla Harris that you would get behind closed doors of course not but you better believe Absolut that Trump is the same person behind closed doors as you see out there and that's what people connect to they don't connect to someone who's just fake you have to look at competence more than character when deciding to vote in the presidential election so vote Harris this is this is this is not election for the mo or for one of the L it's it's an election for the president of the United States I would go with the Trump's track record as president for four years especially when it comes to his policies on Israel which were almost exclusively good versus Harris who has no track record other than being a failed president's vice president do you do I failed president a fail a failed president who sent for the first time the first president who sent American Soldiers and Sailors to the Mediterranean Sea and shot down Iranian missiles and Iranian projectiles that's the failed president no CHR has ever done it before I want to hand I want to hand it over to Stu but I just want to say that that to the listener's question Stu and this is I think a real thing and it's hard to debate this which is in the history of American presidential races we've never seen someone jump in with the shortest amount of time and get sort of Raving fans that you have and as much as you're wearing a Harris walls hat I have yet to see a lot of Harris I'm sorry yeah Harris unless you're wearing one I have yet to see people walk around the streets wearing them and I think that that really speaks to the essence of the listener's question which is do do you think that there is sort of like raving fans and momentum behind it it as opposed to what the list is asking which is just people saying oh I don't want to vote for Trump again and this I remember seeing a lawn sign which says we're not going back that's not for who we are that's we're not going to to this die so what how do you respond to that I think most people I think the listener certainly is correct and most people are correct people don't know kamla Harris don't know her all that well exactly because of what you said because of how curtail the process is one of the two or three in the in American history we know the least about maybe Calvin gulage but here's the important part all Americans know Donald Trump and a majority of them don't like him and will not vote for him it starts from the beginning no Republicans have never won you talk to you talked more in the beginning about the history of the election no Republican has won since Bush no one no first Bush since the 1988 no Republican has won a majority vote in the United States except once post 911 most of the time most people vote against the Republicans and Donald Trump people have very strong feelings about and a majority of Americans don't like him so they don't know enough about KLA Harris but a majority have very strong anti- feelings about Donald Trump yes the white don't people like we're going to close we're going to close with uh with a little treat for claw mode which is we're going to close our eyes and we're going to pretend that we are running one of the campaigns closing our eyes we're pretending we're running run the campaigns you can pick which campaign you want to run or you can give advice for both campaigns and you are going to pretend you're the campaign manager and what is the advice you give in these next two weeks you have advice to give in the next two weeks which it's l mod so people you know listeners can do the same exercise in their Suka and we're going to do it right here right now if I was either campaign manager and again I'm extremely biased in this I would say to them got to focus on the Jewish vote I think he going to come down to places like Pennsylvania I think that the that not only that but a red wave or Blue Wave there's three Coral districts in New York that can swing the house red or blue so to me the Jewish Community the Jewish voters are critical and so to me I would say hey wait a second how's that going over there which is why I think you're seeing on the Harris side Richie Torres start to run around a very popular Democratic startet and I think there's going to be a lot more of this going on so if I were them I I keep focusing on the Jewish Community Ellie what would you do you gonna give some you gonna give Harris some advice here or you giving Trump some advice how to win who are you helping no I'm not going to give the Harris uh Team any advice in case they're listening but I will say that I think that the Trump team has to keep pounding these economic issues that make a difference to people talk about what's going to be different and why people are going to have a life we can pay for groceries where they can find jobs and we're doing what's right and doing playing by the rules and doing what that will be rewarded and not just assets given away to people who cut the line benmen I would advise Trump don't waste your time anymore in blue States in states that you can't possibly win spend every minute of your time in the six or seven key swing states that you need to win in order to win the election ditto for van and forget everyone else you don't need to win the popular vote you need to win the electoral college and that's what he's got to focus on as far as Harris is concerned what I would tell KLA Harris is to be yourself give a straight answer to a question forget all of the coaching you're getting forget all of the canned lines that you're giving out get away from them you were once a prosecutor when you're in a court of law you ask very pointed questions and you're looking for yes and no answers you're not looking for the respondent to ramb on so I would saying the saying thing to her stop with the nonsense when you're asked a question give a straight answer keep it brief you've been in government for over 20 years as a prosecutor an attorney general a senator vice president you got to know something about what's going on in the issues answer a question straight and then you might have a chance my advice to Donald Trump a let Trump be Trump keep on coming to places like Madison Square Garden middle of Manhattan and talking about your issues and your Grievous is because it makes you feel good Mr Trump so it must be the right thing to do and please keep talking about Mr Trump how you alone can outsmart Vladimir Putin the Vladimir Putin who is agreeing to fund Iran the Vladimir Putin who is strengthening his alliance with Iran on yum so that they continue to fund Israel please talk about how you Donald Trump are smarter than Vladimir Putin not the other way around and let voters decide who's smarter Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin let's all put everything into Donald Trump's intellect and his ability to outsmart people and not get tricked that would be the great the best the way Donald Trump could do the most good for the American people I see I see what Stu did there you know it's not the perm Edition yes Stu I see what Stu did there all right we appreciate all of our listeners as always if you have your own perspective if you agree with us if you disagree with some of the things that I said on this if you have your own campaign analysis and you say hey I got to get this on the next two weeks so that the campaign hear what I had to think please reach out to us at podcast mb.com again podcast mb.com where we will if we like it we will put this this question on air answer it for you and until then we will enjoy your sua enjoy coloid we will see you next time