Fourcast Episode 5: Neck-and-Neck Horse Race

Vance showed just how convincing he's going to be when he gets people together under the 25th Amendment to take the presidency away from Donald Trump if he wins Tam Harris has peaked she got a wave of excitement right after she got nominated and she carried that further but she has not increased her lead at [Music] all welcome to the forecast where for from pandits talk politics meet the allstar line up I'm benam Rose mishak magazine editor at large I'm my litwak teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm stul loser longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative commentator okay so let's get down to politics about 30 days left to the election we have incredibly exciting topics here we have momentum movement within the elections and here today to talk about this is our incredible panelist as always welcome to the forecast we have to kick it off gentlemen we have what is really coming down to almost a tie debating if it's a tie or not the polls are neck and neck and there seems to be a strategy that's coming down to two things the heris strategy is let me get in front of every interview that I can get in front of get out there and people say they don't know me I'm going to get out there in front of every interview is it working there's a tremendous amount of of commentary criticizing elements of her debate others are saying hey that's all people are talking about it's a great strategy on the Trump side of things he's out here now attacking her Harris predictably he's attacking her interviews but he's also finally connecting her to the Biden Administration and attacking anything that comes out of the Biden Administration including over the last week disaster relief is that working is that a strategy that working my take I think that Harris is commanding The Narrative right now he he may be floing some of the interviews but at the end of the day when your opponent is responding to you it seems like that's a pretty good strategy let's start with Ellie what do you think's working or not working here so um there's a lot of data out there but the truth right we always know is that you can't um you can't you can't really Define how a campaign is going as much by how you see the public data as much as you see how the campaigns are behaving so take a look at how the Harris campaign is behaving there's a major shift in their um strategy um she didn't do any interviews now she's doing interviews Mor I'll push back on what you said you said she's getting out in front of every interview camera she's not she's only going on very friendly podcasts friendly ones like like Howard St the show that made the show that made Donald Trump Howard Stern 20 million viewers I mean I don't care how many viewers he has he's not second one more second let me just finish what I'm saying and to the point of whether or not the Trump campaign is connecting her to the Biden um to the Biden Administration they're not the ones doing it she is she went on The View and when she was asked Point Blank and this is also a case of her flubbing an answer would she have done anything differently than the Biden Administration and she said no I would have done everything the same what she supposed to say could comm's guy you know that if you can answer that question give it to you Ste Ste go I've already done something different I beat Donald Trump in a debate and Joe Biden hasn't done that in a long time is what she could have said but that's not polite she's diplomatic and she's moving on we all know people who are trying to succeed their boss take over from their boss and don't want to insult the boss laori most of what you said is true and most of what you said is true Ellie the part that is missing in this conversation is the ground game States like Michigan and Pennsylvania in Nevada I talked to someone in Nevada just like last night the Paris ground game is deep strong it is tons of people on the ground reaching people and that is the part we're not seeing whereas Trump all he has is tv ads and attacking he does ground game the Ved ground game the Democrats always have 2016 also we were hearing all about the them ground game this time what happened this time it's true you covered B you've covered so many races what what do you think here is this Harris interview strategy working or not is the Trump attack strategy working or not is it all in the past anyway through argues that it's the ground game what do you think Ben y look you have to get an award in front of the voters there's no alternative to that I think Trump is getting out in front of the voters uh it's kamla Harris who is more in front of the cameras right now because he's got to make up for lost time in that regard look Donald Trump is always going to be reactive just because he reacts to a perceived insult doesn't mean that uh he's on the defensive this is how he is this is how he behaves this is hiso and he's always going to keep that up so I don't think that we can judge from that who's got the momentum in the campaign my instinct Mory is that camela Harris has peaked she got a wave of excitement right after she got nominated and she carried that further but she has not increased her lead at all and in fact most of the states that she needs to win she's either behind barely or she's barely ahead I would think that if she was going to win that she would have had a bigger lead right now in uh every state that she needed to and she doesn't so again that's my sense I think she's Peak and I think that Trump has the momentum it's very hard to say that um just from a a historical perspective right to say well asked me Ellie Ellie Mory asked me from my experience and I'm giving you my instinct I no no no got that I I mean it's more of an instinct than science but that's that's how I perceive it right now we like gut takes here so we appreciate B's gut take here allly your gut take is you didn't comment on what the Trump strategy is is the Trump strategy is there a strategy right now is it working the Trump strategy is definitely you know we're used to this this whole idea of of let Trump be Trump and now it being a whole bucket of chaos and it's not what we're getting this campaign we're not getting that this campaign he has people running the campaign who are much more confident than he's had in the past um and take for example Wisconsin where Trump is literally has between him and Vance their they're going through county by county to to to actually make a very grownup play at winning this thing um they're no longer do they they were no longer they used to be doing one4 the number of of rallies and events as 2016 now they're doing about a third as many they have increased but they are still in the hole from where they doesn't it doesn't it's not the it's not the point but the ground when we talked about the ground game here and this is why I want to focus us a little bit Etc we pivot a little bit because I don't know if we're going to have consensus over the Harris debate strategy versus the Harris want talk about that a little bit more versus the Trump strategy of of attack on the ground game do do let me just differentiate two things when we talking about ground game we're talking about people on the ground registering voters getting people out to vote getting their side to show up and I believe that's what Stu's talking about I agree with that what Ellie and B are talking about is his Trump doing rallies and getting that out what's piing people in the field nervous on the Republican side and what's making the Democrats excited is there their argument is that's not going to work to get to win election do you do let's let's dig down on that benel you agree with that or you disagree I've written in my column on more than one occasion also recently that uh the winner of this race will be the one who succeeds in getting the turnout out to vote so so comes down to turnout so Allie quick quickly like do you turnout turnout turnout just like real estate location question who is it who is it that I mean Trump is going Trump is going on on on on on on center right podcast to get people who don't normally vote come Harris is going on on Howard Stern and and call me daddy and the one all to get people who don't those those what are those what are those those are podcasts those our base right those are also turning to the base no they're not our base they're young people who actually don't vote there are people who are occasional voters and not always voters and there are people who do not you know who who turned out for Biden but did not turn out for Clinton you were 2016 they have they're fixing the mistake of 2016 by pulling the people who don't normally vote so let's let's talk about her appearances right let's talk about her appearances because she she has she has the the the perfect mix of being so terribly and transparently fake and also struggling to say anything of substance and you have those two things together you get the answers like she get when she when what says every week she doesn't do you you heard had she she was asked Ste she was asked right right I'll pick one question because I know you referred to this in the earlier podcast right she was asked whether or not um Natan is an ally right what did she say what did she say she talked around the issue she's not going to tell the truth what she say she said not she said this this is a diplomatic issue and I'm going to give diplom diplomatic answer because I'm in I'm I'm I'm here on The View by the way here here is my concrete plan Ellie you talk about my house what does ending the war in ukra we got a minute we got a minute got a minute left let's do the let's do the following I just want to know the following I want to know the following Thing 2 seconds a piece is is there is an there is is who has the offensive strategy here between Harrison and Trump who is on offense here between Harris and Trump Benyamin go first here Harris has started to take the offense uh by going and doing as many interviews as she had uh before that I think she was playing prevent defense because she was sitting on her lead and now she realizes either she doesn't have a lead anymore or it's shrinking so she's got to work harder and try harder Ellie I think that cona Harris is definitely trying to play offense but she has a very big problem that she keeps on putting her foot in her mouth you think like the Dem said mitt Romy was a flip-flopper KLA Harris makes mitt rley look like a rock stuffing concrete do for abortion Donald Trump is now anti-abortion I keep on talking about abortion not because it's an issue that's important to us on our community but because it shows how he is willing to sell out anyone once he has their vote locked up um she's in charge she's setting the dynamic all the conversations we're having are about her all he can do is attack we're having these conversations about her because people don't represents we're GNA move on can't make the case anymore we're going to move on people do think she's more of a change agent we can agree can agree steu and Ellie have bipartisan consensus that last 20 seconds does not mean last 20 seconds for them all right let's go on to the next thing here we go so we're going to go into the lightning round here and we're really excited here because we have some good questions uh not just for our panelist but also from our listener listeners so really excited about that we're going to we're going to pull those up as well so first and foremost walz or Vance who won this debate I think that JD Vance overwhelmingly woned I I don't even think it was close that's my take steu what do you think uh Vance showed just how convincing he's going to be when he gets people together under the 25th Amendment to take the presidency away from Donald Trump if he wins absolutely absolutely did a great job on Trump elist so he can try to like cook a little bit between them over there but it's not going to work Vance ran away with to listen to this no I's listen president Ellie go no the the it's not a question Vance walked away with this debate but like Mory says it doesn't really make a difference the place where it does make a difference is you saw the difference in the favorability ratings that Vance had before the debate when all people knew about it was what the media was saying and then people actually saw the guy and so wait this is a guy who I can get to know and I can get to like Ben yam in our last podcast before the debate remember I said that VIN would win the debate but the would declare walls the winner so walls did such a poor job that the media couldn't declare walls the winner but they did say that it was a tie so Ty goes to the runner and uh I think that Vance was the runner he he won hands down a second Vance question comes from a listener which says that Vance has a history of being much more extremist than Trump he definitely comes from a Rel quote religious isolationist right-wing Camp considering Trump's age and his weight problem should we not be hesitant to put Vance's second in line to the presidency and the nuclear codes um Ellie what do you think of that question does does Vance have a history of extremism Vance is as mainstream a candidate as you can find somebody who's able to talk about issues that have long been subject of the media trying to to paint the Republicans as as the devil and advocating for them and more importantly speaking English about the importance of supporting working people who play by the rules and do what's right and being able to bring those people into the what do you think Ben uh from another aspect an angle I would say that it was an excellent question and I'll explain why it forced me to look up exactly uh what's involved in the nuclear codes and for this I thank Dr Ian CTS the academic director for the Department for the Department of nuclear studies at kurtland Air Force Bas in New Mexico who writes that uh while the president does possess the authority to give the final order for a nuclear attack contrary to popular opinion there is no button nor does the president have access to nuclear launch codes as if he could enter a few numbers into a transmitter and missiles thousands of miles away would fly out of their silos so once the president signals his intention that we need to go on a nuclear attack the next step is to confer with the top Rass it could be the Secretary of Defense senior Military Officers I got it but what B topless what do what do you think of that so so so what about Vance for that for the for that process so no president can just push the button every president would have to consult with the top military and National Security advisers before going on a nuclear attack just pushing a button even if they could with am amount to a war crime we know Trump's button brings a diet cop you trust him with that I the question was about V and who he is I mean it's a great question I I disagree with Ellie on this too I think it was a great question and we're taping this on October 9th I'm going to read a tweet from October 9th by JD Vance Trump makes people I care about afraid IM immigrants Muslims Etc because of this I find him reprehensible God wants better of us that's a tweet by JD V on October 9th not he's doing God wants better the questioner is right to say JD Vance talk about flip-flopping Ellie JD Vance anti-trump considers him like Hitler is now flip-flopping and not to be trusted against Donald Trump my name I Believe by the rules that gives me 30 seconds we're keep we're going to keep we we we were told there were no rules I'm saying one thing just one thing just one thing about this it's not called flip flopping just very clear very clear for when you have um a belief about a policy and you change your your mind backwards backwards and forwards and backwards and forwards that's called flip flopping if somebody believed something the way the media was reporting about somebody information and change their mind that's not a flipflop who's a better Sur would you rather have Elon Musk or Liz Cheney um I would rather have Elon Musk I think Liz Cheney this that she she went for um for Harris was dismissed by most of the Republican party which is typically the case when people flip change sides in political processes but who would you rather have would you rather have Elon musth Ben y or would you rather have Liz Cheney backing you I'd rather have Elon Musk he's more influential as far as Liz Cheney is concerned I wrote about this a couple of years ago when she lost her primary that she's irrelevant if she couldn't get 50,000 votes as an incumbent in her own District in a primary uh then how is she get influence uh America to say okay well I'm for uh I'm for Harris so everyone else should love for Harris forget it you Ellie talked about the great organization of the Trump campaign Elon Musk is the proof case Trump spent a million dollars on TV ads in Michigan saying that kamla Harris wants to take your regular car your internal combustion car away and mandate an EV not true but that's he spent a million dollars and then he spent then he had Elon Musk that king of EVS who also wants to take away your regular car and give you an EV campaign with him in Pennsylvania blowing up a million dollars they have no organization they have no coherence they're just like children throwing things at a wall they're attacking you know I like Elon must in that he an example of just how terrible the Trump campaign is do all right Allie McKay cins once called Marco Rubio the young candidate that old people think young people like Liz Cheney is the Republican surrogate that Democrats think Republican likes nobody likes her she's not moving the needle on Iota Elon Musk probably not either people don't vote for surrogates people vote for candidates so either way Elon Musk that's a good mbuck com we got to write that we got to talk about that okay let's go two more real quick and again we're apologize for the lightning round but it is lightning it's hitting all over the place another one from our listener who asked many of the original a influences of the former Trump White House stay the place was chaotic that many times the adults in the room had to talk Trump down from extreme stous positions who who is he going to find now basically who is who is going to be available for him in a second term and I at boat for his second term presidency uh Ellie what do you think of that very under um underappreciated is how much of the chaos in the Trump first administration were all these people who thought that the point of the Trump cabinet is to save the country from the duly elected president democracy is the people voting for who they want and getting it and people vote for Trump should get it he's going to staff with people who won't be undermining him JD Vance is a very capable guy and be agree I agree his his transition Sherman all the financial times this week we are going to have a loyalty test you're going to have to be like us you're going to have to say things like us like talk about globalist which is an anti-semitic Trope and I'm saying this not as an association but Donald Trump elevates voices and and reflects voices about people who say things that also with hack Jews things about globalist talked this week about bad genes some people have bad genes and some people have good genes we agree those are the people he's going to put in his administration this time the kind of people who thinks that you can genetically separate individuals I happen to think that the long thread of History shows that that tends not to work out Mur B yam again you and I you and I spent a lot of time looking at at history and looking at these things I I think we both can agree it's very troubling how many I don't know any historical precedent for this of former cabinet members saying this this I do think it's a problem for a trump second term if he were to win one what do you think here Ben look in Trump's first presidency he relied on the people who worked with him in real estate uh David fredman Jared Krishner and uh J Jason greenblat I think they all outperformed uh majorly they really Rose to the occasion some of Trump's picks in his first term like Rex Tillerson for secretary of state was ridiculous uh James Mattis for are of Defense who thought that the the capital of Israel was Tel Aviv these were bad picks every every president has big turnover in the white house every president gets complaints about from the people who work for him uh people complain that KLA Harris is very nasty and she's hard to work for people say the same thing about Biden I would direct the reader to uh a couple of articles in Politico over the last few months where they've done a very deep dive into who are working behind the scenes and who would have senior roles in in either a trump Administration or a Harris Administration they did a lot of research I would say on both sides there's a lot of good name seasoned people and even if those are the people who end up getting the jobs I guarantee there will be a lot of turnover in either administration because that's just the way it goes I can I say I haven't agreed with Benyamin I've been agreeing with I agree with Benyamin Benyamin says it was deeply problematic that you have a senior official who doesn't understand the basic geography of Israel I agree it's why I was so scared this week when Donald Trump says I've been to Gaza which he never has been because he doesn't understand what Gaza is what AA is what's the difference between that's really scary scary that Trump knows nothing about Israel come on we're way over the light we're way over the lightting ground you can check out I I I don't I'm not sure what these political articles B is talking about because I only read mhaka magazine so I'm not sure what he's talking about but I'm sure I'm sure you can find them online all right we have very little time for our big bold predictions I'm going to kick it off by coming back to one of our questions I have a big Sensational prediction I think Elon Musk as the weeks go by is going to flip-flop and I think he's gonna find a way to pull back from his support of trump and as the polls continue to not show Trump in the lead which I don't think they're going to show him over the next cple weeks and we have a whole debate about the polls but I think musk is going to make big news as he pulls back from it he's he's done this before he's changed his position you know Midstream before I think he's going to be big big news that he does it that's my big bold prediction on it and I'll kick it over to B what do you got for us other than the chance of a Subway series I would say that I'm going to be bold here I'm going to say that Donald Trump is going to win the election uh and I think he's going to get either close to 300 electoral votes or slightly more Ellie what do you got for us so mine is not as much a a big ball prediction as much as something to keep an eye on we got news that