Fourcast Episode 3: Blame Game

the Democratic party always gets hung up on rhetoric and does nothing of substance Trump will lose will not be able to run again unclear for the Republican party as it exists now will continue to exist as a single [Music] party welcome to the forecast where for from pandits talk politics meet the allstar lineup I'm Benyamin Rose mishak magazine editor at large I'm Mor lwac teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm Stu loser longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative commentator okay so let's get down to politics greetings to all of our listeners and welcome to another edition of forecast I'm Ben y Rose and today we will ask and hopefully answer the following question will the Jews be blamed if Donald Trump loses earlier this week the media was buzzing over one line in Donald Trump's 45 in his speech to the Israeli American Council in Washington if you look at the headline coverage Trump said according to the headline coverage that if he loses the election the Jews would bear the blame but is that what Trump really said to quote the famous former sports caster Warner Wolf let's go to the videotape if I don't win this election and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because at 40% that means 60% of the people are voting for the enemy Israel in my opinion will cease to exist within 2 years and I believe I'm 100% right if I do win Israel will be safe and secured we will stop the toxic poison of anti-Semitism from spreading here all over America it's spreading it's spreading like it's never spread before I've never seen anything like it I really believe it would be obliteration and it'll happen quickly too it's very close to happening with your vote we will reject anti-Semitism in our schools reject it in our foreign policy we will reject it in our immigration system but all of that starts with rejecting Camala Harris at The Ballot Box this election so look even muie adelon the mega Republican donor slapped Trump on the wrist for saying that Israel won't exist in two years of Harris's elected she reminded Trump that we've got God on our side and he's going to take care of us however if you listen to what Trump said he did not use the word blame that he would blame the Jews that's a media interpretation so I'm going to give mine because I listen to the entire speech and as far as I'm concerned what he was saying was a challenge to the Jewish voter he was saying you have to vote for me you better vote for me was there a little bit of a threat implied of course because that's how Donald Trump talks but I don't see that there's anything there that people could stick him to and say you know something if he loses then uh they're going to blame the Jews and God forbid there's going to be consequences gentlemen how did you hear it I I'll go first I completely disagree with you b y I think it's it's very ped that that's what he was saying I don't think this is it's one of those things where you can what's being argued for him is well that's not what he meant or in his heart he meant that but his words were that and I think his words were disturbing and I think the the the metric for language like this is if Cala Harris had said it everyone in both our community and the Jewish Community overall and in the Republican base would have been losing their minds and they would have said that this is this is you cannot say that it's going to be our fault if someone doesn't win an election based on a whole host of reasons including our population size and everything else and I just think that this is another example of where when it comes to the Donald Trump campaign in the presidency we too often basically just give this latitude and say well you know that's not what he meant or really this is what it is ETC but those that's the language he said and and when he's talking to tens of millions of people and people are hearing it what he says actually matters and it is disturbing and I think it it has to be recognized as that and as a community this is another example where we have to look at things from a bipartisan perspective and from looking at both parties and how we would think about this and I think certainly if the metric was if a Democrat said that would the community be just as upset and I think the answer is yes I'm G to say one thing over here I'm not going to disagree with you about the phrasing but I'm going to tell you that I agree with you the words said that you know in in the way of looking at the Jewish Community would be responsible for a LS and that's that's not really like Donald Trump's opinion right that's math the difference in what Donald Trump sees and he's entitled to see himself as people like me do as good for Jews the difference between what he sees as he's earned sort of capital with the Jewish community and how that should translate to votes and the actual votes that he gets in the Jewish Community a Jewish Community Jewish people who identify as Jewish it's improperly weighted we can say and that difference in elections that he's been a part of that that have been decided by tens of thousands of votes would make the difference in the election now saying that the way he said it was you know like like you're saying Mor the way he speaks but the bigger no no no but guys let me just finish the point here okay the the reason why M's comparison to to how would we behave if kamla Harris would say it or if a Democrat would say it it's very simple why this would be different you look at at Donald Trump's body of work as it pertains to the Jewish community and you look at how a Democrat reacted to things that he did positively for the Jewish community and how they themselves on on on things that matter behave you know take things like you know Anan Omar when she said her things a few years back very condemned in words condemned in words every put put strong statements about how this is antiemetic and then when it came time to censure or to do something that actually had meaning they did nothing Trump title six he added protections for anti-Semitism Democrats I let you talk I I let you talk but like if you want if we want to talk about illan Omar the issue wasn't just her words the the pit but she invoked anti-semitic memes anti-semitic themes that have been with us for centuries and she was criticized for that rightly she said she didn't know Donald Trump isn't just mathematically lying and saying that if he doesn't win Pennsylvania it will be because of the Jews or if he doesn't win Michigan it will be because of the Jews which is essentially what he is saying yeah saying the same thing pardon no worse than that he's accusing us of dual loyalty this is a like a Blood Oath this is absolutely a dual loyalty he's saying I've done this thing for Israel and you have to be loyal to me on this he is saying that we cannot first of all he's saying that we cannot vote on any other issue other than Israel he cannot say that a Jewish voter can have a reasonable disagree with him about whether or not it's good to have invite virent anti-semites to your club for dinner like he did with Nick Fuentes whether or not it's okay your vice president to go show that platforms Holocaust denial I say no whether or not it's okay in a presidential debate as Donald Trump says when asked about BB Netanyahu he said let me tell you about Victor wban now we can debate about whether or not Victor wban is actually an anti-semite but without a doubt we could debate that we cannot debate the fact that under Victor Orban hungry is rewriting the history of the Holocaust and it is a holocaust minimizer and Holocaust denial these are the things that Donald Trump is playing to this is the thing that I enjoy about having an uncle of mine as an attorney he used to say you know famous lawyer joke that you know when you have the facts on your side you P fact you don't have the facts on your side the law second second when you have the facts on the side you pound on the facts you have the law on the side you pound the law what you don't have the facts or the law you pound on the table what the Democrats do time it is a dog ask Ste Ste here's the here's the point now this is the real Point there's we can get hung up about a dinner that Trump had um a one-onone long not one-on-one there was a few people there but whatever let's get let's get hung up about this a long time ago two years ago for this guy who who now came out and said oh Trump trump is too good for the Jews I think I'm going to vote for KLA Harris Let's get hung up on that dinner I'm not going to make a big deal about that because it's one give a dozen examples bot bot second let's talk this is this is the the split is that the Democratic party always gets hung up on rhetoric no and and does nothing of substance I'm going ask you a question question the rhetoric is the leader of the party is trafficking in an anti-semitic tropes a leader of the president by the way Thomas corks the guy who shot at him in Pennsylvania his first assassin also trafficked in anti-Semitism so what what are you saying traffic antisemitism so him and Trump are on the same team the guy who took a shot at Trump and Trump are on the same team because they are both responding to anti-semitic yes they are both responding to anti-semitic trust and I will tell you why they are doing it Ellie I'm Donald Trump has done two-thirds fewer rallies this summer than he when he ran before he is an old man who is slowing down we all agree old men who are slowing down shouldn't be president he is slowing down he has run out of Voters who don't know him so he is reaching out to voters who do not know them to get them to vote the first time that's why he's going on so many podcasts that's why he won't attack people who are platforming other guests because it ruins him within his bcast Network and he is trafficking in this in anti-semitic tropes he is wink wink nod nodding saying I hear what you're saying because I listen to you I hear what you're saying from the other guests and who you listen to and mor is right if a Democrat did anything close to this there would be outroar I see what you did there to bringing up Trump's rallies you're not going to get me distracted that way because you're smarter than Trump because we're all smarter than Trump because our toes are smarter than Trump here's my point in short when it comes to doing anything of substance on anti-Semitism the Democrats are always out to lunch take for example Corey Bush just lost her primary right she lost her primary and she went on an unhinged anti-semitic overtly anti-semitic rant in her um concession speech okay and was criticized for it and was criticized for it by democrats said it's anti-semitic it's very bad guess what she's still on committees and she's still on the caucus nothing changed nothing of substance ever Chang KCK office she got kicked out of office by the voters Democratic Leadership is keeping her in her committee assignments and keeping her in the caucus even though she said the most Republicans there are six House Republicans we talk about it next week who have said far worse things let's kick them off the Republicans don't kick off the anti-semites either this St is my point my point is is that when it comes to everything the Democrats put out statements and do nothing therefore it stands to reason when you have a guy like Trump who's dumb things for the Jewish Community title six like we said title six he was criticized all of a sudden give protections to Jews on campus oh my gosh Free Speech the Democrats said don't protect the Jews right things like that anytime anything comes up of substance the Democrats push back the Democrats won't do anything of substance so Trump says something that's the whole game for them Trump said something yes he said something Mor's been making the argument about how the Jewish Community can impact the election as well we're all making that because we matter that's what Trump is saying that we matter and by his understanding of what he's done for the Jewish Community which people like me agree to right he deserves more of the vote of the Jewish Community than he's been getting and that is a difference between winning and losing and he's not saying go out and hunt the Jew benyam let's get over to you what else do you have to say on this topic all right gentlemen I thank you all for expressing your strong and well-reasoned opinions uh I would like to encourage our listeners if they have the time to Give a listen to uh Trump's entire speech 45 minutes and if anyone thinks after listening to the entire 45 minutes in his spirited defense of the Jewish people in Israel that uh you need to focus on one line in his speech where he expressed himself in the typical crude way that he often does then then that's your decision to make uh I saw it differently again I saw that uh you know here's a man who's really going to help Israel and defend the Jews and perhaps it's because I live in Israel but living here and being under attack every day uh and especially the last day where there's been missiles fired into Tel Aviv and into whatas where I used to live I want someone who's going to be very staunch uh to defend Israel and uh with his actions and his words really matter a little bit less to me anyway that's uh that's my point and uh Mor take it away I I just want to want to add that once upon a time James Baker said something horrible or was reported that he said something horrible um and and literally after election for George Bush about the Jewish community and people on the right on the left everyone agreed that it was outrageous because a presidential rhetoric matters it actually matters and and a presidential resume matters and presidential rhetoric matters and I think as the as a Jewish Community we do not have to say that a a resume on certain things that we really care about Trump's the retoric both matter and should matter because people remember small things in elections and after elections they remember read my lips no more taxes right they remember those types of things and people will not listen to 45 minutes worth of a speech they will see and hear a clip of it which is being shared to others and you may like it or not that the media is sharing that clip but it does matter and so to me I still think that this is a pretty easy softball call by almost anybody in politics to say it is disturbing it it has to be called out is disturbing very troubling it's a kind of thing that we we should be able to agree on and and I know there's difference of opinions on that but I think there's resume there's rhetoric and and we have to think about and aspire to have a president that can do both um I want to move it turn it over to the lightning round as is always the case we don't share with our panelists these questions so that it's much more interesting so that they're ready to go we see how smart they are and how quick they are we will kick it off with uh a question about North Carolina is Camala Harris going to win North Carolina St what do you think is Kamala Harris GNA win North Carolina she was already gone to win it before the Republicans refused to even not only replace but even criticize the black Nazi who denies the Holocaust and minimizes the Holocaust who's running for governor Ellie what do you think Stu also thinks that K Harris is going to win Texas so um you know there's that but um if you remember from last week's pod I said that North Carolina would be more I thought more swingy than than even Pennsylvania which I think is is closer to Trump win so North Carolina who knows up for grabs benan what do you think up for grabs or Camala or or Trump trump I heard an interesting take from Sean trendy the senior elections analyst on Real Clear Politics on his he said that the Robinson issue may actually uh counterintuitively help Trump he said that the people who go to the polls in North Carolina will uh vote for Robinson's opponent and then they'll be able to feel that they're good guys and they can uh say I was a good citizen today and that will free up their conscience to vote for Trump yeah that's probably more wishcasting than anything I still think it's in is in it's in Trump's column I I think Scandal aside things like that I don't think it'll be enough to to bring it down I I still think there I think there'll be other surprises but I think Trump takes North Carolina next question do Americans and more specifically voters care about a government shutdown does anyone care anymore I always ask this question does anyone care it's being reported like non-stop doesn't matter for the house that does it matter for Republican politics Democratic politics B what do you think do people care look if you're one of the uh Washington workers who works in government yes you do care because you don't know whether to go to work or not or whether you'll get paid but uh I I think this whole thing with the uh with the the budget uh with with the debt limit is ridiculous because they always raise the limit and they ought to stop having these votes twice a year just say listen we're already in debt $35 trillion so let's just keep it going let's go unlimited until uh you know people stop buying our bonds and then we'll see we have a problem and then we'll actually do something serious Ste yes people care that our government can't do minimal functions that it's their job to do Ellie I'm going to take a little bit more of a Nuance take on this I think that um for the like light light you're he on fire oh my gosh the government is shut down that the you know the media and the left who this issue always seems to benefit um portrayed as definitely not but at a certain point when it extends um past a certain point and starts impacting people's lives that's when people start carrying there's a lot of theater that's involved with it like closing the parks and etc etc but yeah I don't know if you guys have following the story about uh Governor Whitmer and her not taking a side in a fight between her the attorney General and Rashid halib over student prosecutions um and it's it's a big fight and it's basically Whitmer came out with a very surprising statement saying look I'm staying out of it how how do you think Ste how do you think that affects her for 2028 well 2028 is irrelevant because K Harris is going to be president and running for re-election so um I don't really know I don't actually I can't really map out the Senate seats there but I don't I actually don't know what her path forward is I can't understand or explain this the attorney general seems to be in the right here yeah go yeah know this is this is one of those cases like some we were talking about earlier you know Rashid TB said that danan nessel was only Prosecuting the students who were harassing Jewish students because she's Jewish everybody recognizes that it's you know that's an anti-semitic thing to say Governor wouldn't weigh in then she put out a half-hearted statement the day later because she got pushed back and then now the entire Democratic apparatus is coming out saying oh well she never really said it was because she's Jewish she it's anti-semitic Democrats will continue to excuse it period I told you our career maybe ended Good Guy Ben yam my I saw a headline on this I didn't delve into the story I'm not surprised that the Democratic governor of the state of Michigan didn't take on a democratic congresswoman from the state of Michigan as typical cowardly politics uh I do think that by 2026 the uh group that APAC formed to Target people who have a poor track record on Israel will find someone better to run against laib and she'll be bounced out of office like uh Cory B and uh and Jamal Bowman and a bunch of others this is a two for one we got 30 seconds Trump said if he loses he going to run again do you believe him and while we're at it if Harris loses is that the end of it for her career let's go with Ellie first yeah Trump's not going to lose a b yeah KL Harris can't win a primary so we know that already she you know is Trump running again if he loses he's not losing D Trump will lose will not be able to run again un clear for the Republican party as it exists now will continue to exist as a single party kamla Harris one of the things she has shown is that when you were exciting and have new ideas you actually automatically are a strong candidate and if she doesn't win this time there's going to be other candidates who are also exciting new and smart and strong Benyamin if Trump loses he won't run again and the Republicans will have to remake their party from scratch once again the question is if he wins will he run again because normally a president is limited two terms even if they're nonconsecutive but there's some issues with the the interpretation of the Constitution on that so we'll have to see how that plays out if Harris loses I think she's done politically maybe she can go back to being district attorney in San Francisco but uh I don't think that uh she's going to have a national political life after this if after all the hype and all the money that she's raised can't win her and buy her the presidency then I don't see why anyone would vote for her for public office again I think this is the last time we ever see a trump Harris together on a tiet obviously back toback I don't think Trump can run I think he's gonna be too old Harris obviously people will will blame and say that Biden should have run and that's why she lost so I think they're both going to be in political retirement for the presidential uh whomever loses uh let's go to our bull predictions here I'm going to predict that a lot of what we've seen over the last two to three weeks since the Democratic Convention with Harris bump significantly starts to tighten up Beyond I think we see some poll over the next week also that shows on the national side that the Trump's even even or up or two I haven't seen any serious new things that the Harris campaign have done to sort of keep the momentum going that's sort of counterintuitive to what a lot of the national polls are saying but I think he's going to tighten up so that's my bold prediction for the next week and then we're going to be off to the races with a real really really race if you enjoy this race it's going to be even tighter and more razor thin than before Ste what do you think what do you got 24 years ago and I worked for Al Gore and Joe liberman SW of Thea against George Bush we did not understand no one in our campaign understood that George Bush was using coded language we talked about compassionate conservativism in my heart that that meant something different for evangelicals than it did for the rest of us we had no evangelicals no one to tell us this code because he was doing a legitimate and fair dog whistle Donald Trump is playing to the replacement Theory Jews will not replace us anti-semites with statement like the one we've spent most of the podcast debating and I hope he doesn't get away with it I'll also go on the polling um side of things um we did start already seeing I think last night the CNN poll that has the the race tied I think the New York Times poll the sunbell chose you know um Trump ahead I I think that in the next week we'll see here's my bold prediction we'll see a lot of polls showing either candidate with huge leads in the same places which further cements the fact that this is a Choose Your Own Adventure kind of polling landscape and nobody's going to know what's going on and everyone's just going to believe what they thought before bamin Mory I'll take off on what you said by saying I don't know about the race tightening up in terms of the popular vote Trump seems to have this trouble getting over 47 or 48% support in the polls the important thing is which states is he going to win because we all know that it's the Electoral College that counts so I think that over the next couple of weeks if you take a look at what Senator fedman said in Pennsylvania he he says he doesn't see how Harris is leading in Pennsylvania based on the way he takes the pulse of the people so I think we're likely to see Pennsylvania in the poll starting to tip toward Trump in the next couple of weeks and if that's the case then that could change the whole momentum in the race okay so that wraps it up for today's session we hope you enjoyed the spirit of debate and also learned something do you agree with us disagree have your own thoughts let us know at podcasts mb.com