Fourcast Episode 2: Gunning for Victory

you're 18 years old you can't buy beer you can't buy wine you can't buy liquor you can buy a weapon of War my take is we all win if we don't watch the vice presidential debate which is a huge news [Music] Fest welcome to the forecast where for from pundits talk politics meet the allstar lineup I'm benam Rose Misha magazine editor at large I'm my litwak teach Coalition CEO and political Insider I'm Stu loser longtime Democratic communication strategist and I'm Ellie Steinberg conservative commentator okay so let's get down to politics greetings to all of our listeners and welcome to another edition of forecast I'm Ben y Rose and on today's program we will ask and hopefully answer the following question will the 2024 presidential election be decided by a ballot or bu a bullet gentlemen which way will it go look like kamla Harris any any form of violence in politics is wrong abhorent should be stopped I'm glad that she called him yesterday had a civil and decent and short conversation with him saying this is wrong I'm glad because that's a great first conversation and I'm glad because there's going to be a second conversation I hope one that says crazy people should not be having access to guns and we all agree on this 90 something per of Americans 85% of gun owners own uh believe that crazy people who have demonstrated that they are not really well young people should not have access to guns and perhaps we should have some limits on the kind of guns you can access you're 18 years old you can't buy beer you can't buy wine you can't buy liquor you can buy a weapon of War that's a reality that I most Americans agree with have agreed with for decades hopefully that's where we can head for kamla Harris said to the debate that she and Tim wals were gun owners and she wasn't going to take anyone's guns away from them absolutely but then she quickly wed that one back during the week when she said that she's definitely you know the mandatory buyback of assault weapons she's definitely going to continue to be in favor of which isn't so much you know I I know that there's this kind of desire to make it sa a go control issue which it's it's new and we could have go control debate a different time and Ste you'd probably be surprised you know my feelings about guns are probably are probably closer to yours however my feelings about the Second Amendment are more in the rights sphere that's not a debate to be had right now the real point over here is that the desire to sort of distract that's an overt effort to distract from the fact that this is the second time in two months that somebody has come to take a shot at Trump and this isn't something that we've seen happen before you know in in our lifetimes in the context of a presidential campaign what does tell us that's not right eight years ago August of 2016 when Trump was running against Hillary Clinton he went and said in I think Pennsylvania Hillary Clinton wants to appoint new people to the Supreme Court true those people want to limit your guns true and if she elected there's nothing you can do about it unless the Second Amendment people have something to do with it and his staff about walking back that oh he's joking he said I wasn't joking he was calling on gun owners to take up arms and assassinate Hillary Clinton or at least do damage to her to prevent her from taking away guns from prevent her from pointing Supreme Court Justices who we disagree with you're right this has not been seen forever but it is not new it is something that in fact started eight years ago when Donald Trump started running for president but also in the last uh few months Biden himself called Trump an existential threat and he said we need to put Donald Trump in a bullseye and then Donald Trum Donald Trump it's verman not the same to say one is an existential threat and one is verman absolutely call someone verman is not to call someone verman is not nice to call someone an existential threat and say we need to put Donald Trump into Bullseye and then try to we go out of it like he did in an interview with Lester Hol when Biden was finally Lucid enough for a moment to say that he meant not to actually put him into Bullseye but to focus on for the sake for the sake of moving this conversation along I promise to you binyamin I will never vote for Donald Trump ever again I mean I will never vote for Joe Biden ever again in my life I only voted for him once I will never vote for him again Mory lwac to you now The Ballot or The Bullet I just think that there's two things that are just extremely sad going on number one is that it is extraordinarily sad and pressing that a presidential candidate has had not one but two assassination attempts which had never happened before in American history so that is extraordinarily sad it's sad that we've had so many elected officials be targeted for attack that's extremely sad that is a crisis in itself but it's also extraordinarily sad that in less than 5 hours afterwards 6 hours afterwards the Democratic party is talking about gun control and the Republican party is figuring out who to blame for it on the political rhetoric side this is a level of dysfunction in politics which I don't think we've ever SE seen before so it is if you're asking me who how will it impact the elections unfortunately it's another crisis and a thing that actually everyone agrees on from a bipartisan perspective that has to be dealt with which we're just going to sort of skate over and everybody's going to retreat to their camps come on the guns are the problem not reasonable gun owners who could pass a gun check could say you want a gun okay we're going to check we're going to make sure you don't have warrants against you we're going to make sure you don't have a violent history you haven't done something like go off to a war that you're not part of to see if you maybe can go around killing people that's reasonable when you and I were kids we had something called lawn darts they were sharp darts that we threw in the yard to each other and lo and behold they started injuring kids cuz you shouldn't throw sharp darts as a lawn toy for kids they don't have them anymore they got rid of them got rid of them really quickly when you have a dangerous product that keeps on being misused and doesn't really have a use then of course it's appropriate to start St but that piece of it is you're right they had lawn darts and they had to remove them and I agree that you that the whole gun control debate is part of this discussion but at the end of the day all of our parents growing up said hey let me tell you the story of lawn darts why you shouldn't do something dumb because there's fear and we know that fear drives people to the poles and if you scare people it drives people to the poles and perhaps it does more than just drive people to poles it creates a very dangerous rhetoric in American we're seeing on both sides so I just think that it to bottle up do just gun control on this thing is simple by an issue that's much larger and broader that is happening inica so let let's talk about jailing our political opponents let's talk about how they're calling our opponents evil as opposed to a slightly less bad word Ellie no let's do this because Ste I know that the the kind of move from the Democratic side is to make this about something generally one of the things that frustrates me about politics that everybody wants to make it about something that's not under their control it's always something that they can blame somebody else cuz that sort of absolves them of the responsibility to do anything in their own house and then this is across the board but the idea that this is a gun control issue and that's the issue like Mur saying we should be talking about the day after is ludicrous nothing changed on the gun control end over the last 48 years that didn't change more guns didn't become in the last 48 years more guns didn't become legal didn't become more legal for crazy people to get guns like so it can't be that we will say oh this constant is responsible for the thing that changed no it's not that but what did change very much and this is true and again this more this is where I'm going to push back on you because you see how much our dear friends in the media are trying to push back on this idea because again it's it comes to culpability what did change is the apocalyptic framing that people on the left and in the media talk about Trump which wasn't true about previous presidential candidates one second and it a different than any other absolutely there's been rhetoric in presidential campaigns for as long as anyone's been alive people have I disagree with I think he's a decent John McCain shuts down a Heckler that's what John McCain does let's talk about what the Obama people said about Romney right Romney was dangerous Romney was going to take roll back the rights of women Romney was going to gut the middle class Romney had bers full of women and now he's great right because he hasn't committed said Ry had binders full of women that wasn't us that was the guy that was guy who had a private Equity that started or Sav Staples and he's like off there saying I got binders full of women you should go to Staples there's one behind me at 43rd and3rd they got a great sale on binders by the way what were we talking about in the presidential debate and no that's AB you know that's not St this is the same thing like like saying that JD van said that he makes up stories is saying that Romney said I have bonders full of women Romney said that I have bonders full of resum I think meaningful and relevant that JD Vance when trying to get elected said I want to cut back on the government agencies in charge of guns I want to eliminate the ATF which is something he had to say this is his uh 20122 just four two years ago I think 2022 Federal candidate survey for the American fun Firearms Association American Gun Association it's relevant let's move on go of course it's relevant but it's not about this assassination attempt then let's talk about which candidate says that his opponents are verit which candidate says that his opponents are crazy evil people which candidates are saying that people are existentially challenging to people's future yes nobody's going to come on here and defend the sort of over-the-top rhetoric that Trump uses that's not what we're here for not you're nearly defend him calling anybody anything what I'm saying is it's very different in the realm of inciting violence when you tell people if this guy gets elected it is the end of democracy as we know it let B laugh for word because we got to we got to go right into the lightning rounds so B what do you got for us Gentlemen Just let me add firstly I'm very impressed with the turns this conversation took because not only did we talk about the election and fair speech and how people should behave with their political opponents but we also got into gun control and brought it in some historical context so if we're going to bring in some historical context I need to bring in uh one thing which has been recirculating uh a viral clip of a 2018 interview that kamla Harris gave when she was still a senator to Ellen G jys and uh when uh she asked uh Senator Harris if she was stuck in an elevator with either president Trump vice president Mike Pence or Jeff sessions who then was attorney general which one would she rather be stuck with so Harris answered does one of them have to come out alive oh my goodness oh my goodness I mean like I'm going to say I'm going to say it's a very a joke in very poor taste but put much less stock in that in than I put into Tim wols saying on this very campaign that Trump and Republicans are a threat democracy and the quote they're are they going to put people's lives in danger yes I think that's says he's going to round up his political opponents and jail them he's going to prosecute democrats for the crime of being Democrat and what tring language War that's going on in your great state of New York we have a we're going back that we can all look I think we can all agree that the that we're we have earthquakes and Tremors every week in the political ecosphere which is a great transition for us in terms of how quick can benam Rose Stu loser Ellie Steinberg and I myself as well how quick can we give you political insights and this is our lightning around so we're going to go through five questions in five minutes and here we go number one just we I know kamla Harris didn't get the questions in advance I know I didn't get the questions in advance you and Mar kind of you both live in the same state you're both sort of more Republican in advance look you know even though I don't know what Mor's position is on the Great Central Jersey debate I live in Central Jersey and my lives in North Jersey in South Jersey there's no such thing in Central Jersey anyway we let's go quickly and see how many we can get through in five minutes number one is which swing state will shock the world we got Pennsylvania Georgia Michigan Wisconsin and Arizona what will shock the world and make this or break the election Ellie go first my gut tells me that North Carolina will be more of a a kind swingy and people will have less confidence in what's going on there than even Pennsylvania perfect St none of what you said myy actually not what Ellie said Iowa poll came out this week Joe Biden was down 18% last time they pulled now K Harris is down four and that was before the debate K Harris you know is going to overperform May if you have those if you have the Electoral College votes from Iowa it becomes almost mathematically impossible it doesn't matter because there's also credible Statewide polls in credible Statewide poll in Texas that shows KLA Harris is behind four in Texas so none of these swing states are the shock will be that when none of these swing States matter and we're fighting over massive Republican states like Texas and flid Pennsylvania will be the big state the big prize in this election whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the election I'm with bam I think it all comes down to Pennsylvania more and more we're guys are going to see who needs the vice president to Bay more Vance or Wallace St go first JD Vance virtually every time he's opened his mouth in this election has put his foot in it or put some dog or cat's foot in it some imaginary dog or cat's foot in it the bar for him is to not go out and say something that is not true not offensive or crazy so he needs that more good walls great guy nice coach I follow a lot of his advice Ellie yeah definitely this I'm going to agree with Stu that Vance needs it more than woles does but for a different reason I think anytime anyone listens to anything that Vance has to say that isn't chopped up or misrepresented you can understand what he's saying and he speaks clearly so I think it's going to be a very big opportunity for Vance to kind of show all the people in the country that the caricature that's being made of him by the media and by the left is indeed not true the dman I think Vance needs the win more the reason why is because the media is biased towards the Democrats and whatever Tim wall says will end up getting lots of rounds of Applause by the Talking Heads and Vance is the one who uh really has to overcome that in order to uh make the positive impression so I would say that he's got the most to prove but I'd also say Vance is far more intellectual than Tim Walls and if he can keep the debate issues oriented without going off into all sorts of side tangents like Stu mentioned then I think he has a good chance of outperforming walls that is true and myell always wins you can ask president adeli Stevenson you can ask uh president Walder Mandel the the the intellectual always wins in America my my take is we all win if we don't watch the vice presidential debate which is a huge snoozefest if election is held today who wins the house who wins the house Ben y who wins the house the Republicans barely Democrats absolutely and proof don't take my word for it don't take Donald Trump's word for it because Donald Trump is a pathological liar and an attacker but he's in Nassau County he's in the fourth congressional district the five towns significantly from Community trying to shore up a strong Republican seat in a strong Republican County in New York which is not in any way shape or form swing state he's doing this because the the Republicans could lose the house Ellie if the election were to be held today most people wouldn't go vote because they think the elections can happened in November but I'm joking a if the election were held today I think that the Republicans would win you know with a narrow majority I do think that what st's talking about is an interesting data point that Trump actually seems to be putting more effort into winning congressional seats than the Harris campaign in going to New York and places like that and not just sticking to his own swing SES I got two more questions going this one I'm looking for a one word answer who wins the Senate Ben yelman Republicans much easier than winning the house Ste D I agree it's hard for the Democrats to win but they will Ellie Republicans Montana yada yada I think I forgot to get my house I think the Republicans win the house I think the Senate keeps stays Democratic I think the Democrats are going to keep the Montana in a shock biggest issue economy immigration or abortion which plays the biggest role in these elections in the next 45 days or so that we have Ellie to quote a great now moderate Democratic president it's the economy stupid you're not wrong Ellie but abortion gets people who don't normally vote and don't always vote out to vote when you have new voters who are coming out to vote on an issue very strong abortion matters more bamit I'm going to make sure that the three of us have different opinions on this I'll say immigration only from the Viewpoint that it's issue that Trump and Vance keep bringing up it's the issue that they keep getting attacked on by the liberal mainstream media and that's the one that is in the news and that's what a lot of people are going to go to the polls and decide on especially in States like Texas Arizona Etc I think it's immigration because Arizona has a ballot literally on that's make or break so you're voting on immigration there and I think it it still had some sticking points from the debate as well so that's what I think is of the immigration now gentlemen since we've gotone through the lightning around and we survived we now need your big bold prediction what's your big bold prediction of what you think is going to happen next week because we will be back with listeners shortly so what do you think is going to happen that that people have to sort of see or pay attention to what is your big bull prediction we will go with Ben y first you're putting me on the spot huh Fearless forecast your Fearless forecast let's go in the next week we'll probably see uh the report that's due to come out on the first assassination attempt against Trump and as Senator Blumenthal a Democrat already said it's going to shock a lot of people so I think we're going to have some Shock waves when it comes to uh the assassination front in the next week I think that for all the noise about whether or not there are dogs and cats being eaten in Ohio which there aren't the Trump team is going to take away the lesson of we actually got away with it we said these people are killing something for in order to eat something which is an old familiar kind of liel that we know very well the lesson that they had is that they should do more of this so they're going to get even crazier here's what I know I was raised a middle class kid and that's all I know no that's the Comm Harris answer to the to the prediction but the FED will cut interest rates Trump will tweet something about it and Trump will also get the pastrami sandwich when he goes to viot lebs tomorrow yeah that's a whole another we should that's 10 minutes of discussion right there my Fearless forecast is and I I tend to add a little bit to what Ellie's saying with a reverse which is I think the that the feds look that they're going to cut the rates I think that the Biden Harris Team come out unbelievably onad and spend time messaging on that and her polling continues to go from last week to this week I haven't seen much that indicates to me that she's losing we'll see what happens next week that wraps it up for today's session thank you for joining us we hope you enjoyed and also learned something you agree with us you disagree have your own opinions let us know write us at podcast at mb.com