Inside Israel Today: Political Prognostications for the Period Ahead

[Music] you're listening to inside Israel today we've Gil Hoffman on the Land of Israel Network hello and welcome to inside Israel today on the Land of Israel Network on the land of israel comm on the final tuesday of the summer vacation summer vacation wait your kids have been in school for two months well my kids have been in school now for half of that time with all the holidays too but you and I have different jobs than Knesset members do Nessun members have been on vacation for three months the holidays have ended I have absolutely no idea why they are not back in the Parliament passing laws right now I was back at the Knesset yesterday I was there on a Monday at 4 o'clock which is usually the busiest time of the week when the Knesset is in session I admit I was there in order to use the gym but I looked at the the electronic board near the cafeteria that shows how many Knesset members were harder to work in the building and the answer ladies and gentlemen was 6 6 Knesset members who if I'm remembering correctly all happened to live in Jerusalem and it's not so inconvenient for them to get to the building maybe even nice for them to get away from their kids we're back from school at 4 o'clock they were the only ones who are there in the building now I'm hoping that next week will be different because the Knesset does come back to session next Monday but then again Tuesday's will see they tend to work harder on Mondays and Wednesdays than they do on Tuesdays but I'm hoping that even on a Monday that the Knesset members will be there because right now what they're saying is that they shouldn't really be passing anything that costs money not anything controversial because our elections are coming up that's right ladies and gentlemen 2019 will be an election here in Israel whether we like it or not now there are positives and negatives about the different system that we have for electing our government over here in Israel the obvious positive is that any given point you could bring it down I know that a lot of the listeners to this show live in the United States and it's fair to say that probably a hundred percent of you I either don't like your current president or your previous president is is that fair my producer is nodding his head if you know uh one or the other with the way America is polarized right now I'm sure a lot of you don't like either of them but there's probably none of you who liked both so if we have a prime minister here if we have a leader we don't like we can get rid of him relatively easy we don't have to kill him we can just vote him out we can initiate an election and at any given point you are stuck with your president for four years and if you don't succeed in voting him out you're stuck with him for eight now then again your president can't last more than eight no matter what you do Netanyahu has been our prime minister since 2009 we're entering 2019 he was Prime Minister before that from 1996 to 1999 he can actually stay Prime Minister forever death death is no match for Netanyahu Netanyahu can last longer than death and he could very well be Prime Minister in another 80 years then again then again we do have criminal investigations none of the other 119 members of Knesset can bring him down but there is an attorney general who can bring him down and he's going to make 2019 interesting his name is avi Heim and Noblet and there's a reason why when the Jerusalem Post named the 50 most powerful Jews in the world Netanyahu is number two and a vehement Noblet was number one there are three different criminal investigations that all could bring down the Prime Minister and the Attorney General is wisely taking his time making sure that whatever decision he makes he will have enough information enough data enough support to back him up the most embarrassing thing in the world would be if he forced out a very popular Prime Minister and then in a trial the Prime Minister has then proven innocent so he's only going to indict the Prime Minister when he has all the proof that he needs in order to do it now because it is taking time it's getting into our election here it's apparently almost sure now that we will have an election before we will have a verdict on an indictment on whether the Prime Minister will be charged with bribery or some other lesser charge that means that Netanyahu will have a great advantage in this election because in the eyes of the voters right now he is innocent until at least indicted if not proven guilty in a court of law which could take years and so he according to the polls will win this election by a landslide and if anything with all due respect to how exciting this election is going to be the real excitement is going to happen after the election after all the mudslinging takes place between the different parties and then they come back and lease we're in a new Knesset shortly after that apparently is when the Attorney General is going to rule and it's still looking almost certain that the Attorney General will decide to indict the Prime Minister for bribery in at least one of the three cases that's a very serious charge it's a charge that has a jail time pretty much automatically so then what happens well there are different scenarios I was aware of only two of them until yesterday but yesterday there were two very interesting reports that I'd like to tell my listeners about okay I thought the most obvious thing to happen would be the pitch now gets reelected and then he governs it's not easy to govern when you're on trial but for the first six months anyway after the indictment there would be a preparation for a hearing the indictment is pending the hearing and only then the indictment comes a reel and then there are processes that lead up to the trial so eventually though he would have to be running the country while on trial that means spending all day in court and then convening the security cabinet at night that that's not pleasant but it can be done so that's scenario number one ladies and gentlemen scenario number two that I was aware of was the French law according to the law that there was in in France that going back to the days of metre and law is you cannot in indict a sitting Prime Minister or president that is something that's allowed to a that a law that exists to allow the government to run smoothly without having little annoying things like investigations and indictments get in the way of getting things done and so the Prime Minister Netanyahu is the only one who could form a government can tell the various coalition partners one of the conditions for joining the government is immediately passing this French law and then that could really allow Netanyahu to remain mr. as I said forever uh uh were for another 80 years or you know both his father and his father-in-law and all the genes from a father-in-law lived until they were a hundred so that is a strong possibility though it's hard because it's not easy to pass a law that is retroactive meaning that normally you're supposed to pass a law that that only really starts taking effect that the next government it's hard to pass a law that's personal that's really just intended to help him and it's hard to pass a law that is corrupt but could they do it yes it can be done yesterday I meet sagol the top journalist in Israel the channel 2 political correspondent I hope his Bubbe in Los Angeles is listening when I say that he's the top journalist in Israel so she can be proud reported that there is an unknown law in Israel he listed the number of it so it sounded real that the members of Knesset have immunity and one of the reasons why they have immunity from prosecution is in a case where they feel that they are being discriminated against and as a meet pointed out that is one of the central arguments of Netanyahu's cases that for instance in the newspaper collusion affair where Netanyahu is accused of offering a bribe to or offering to receive a bribe from the publisher via do note the second largest circulation newspaper in Israel that if the newspaper would become less anti him he he would it work to make sure that another newspaper the tops Relation newspaper in israel would come out less often which could give that second largest circulation newspaper a million dollars of a year worth of ads extra in that case netanyahu has been arguing well it's not just me there have been other politicians in israel who've acted on behalf in one newspaper against another the previous election one of the reasons that happened was that member there were key members of Knesset we tried to shut down that top circulation newspaper in Israel by passing a law that you can't have a newspaper owned by a foreigner um so or a newspaper giving out for free so Netanyahu argues uh those people also should be prosecuted why am i being singled out why is there this discrimination against me in the expensive gift affair when Netanyahu was accused of receiving cigars for himself an industrial amount of cigars from a rich Hollywood producer and also pink champagne and jewelry for his wife Sarah and his lawyers have been arguing wait a second the previous Prime Minister Olmert he was acquitted of receiving very expensive pens from a rich person if he was acquitted in that case why isn't it in Yale being singled out now and it hard for him to be accusing of being discriminated against using a o2o mert as an example because the Homer did go to prison for other cases but yes the pen affair was not one of them and so this immunity idea could also work then there was an idea that was raised in a report that I heard in the morning on the radio by the political analyst of Israel radio his name is Hernan crystal and Hanan said wait a second who says that Netanyahu is going to be the next prime minister of israel and i'm sure the listeners are hearing this it's what who else is there who can we vote for besides and the answer was no he's not saying he won't get the most votes he's saying that there's another man who could bring down Netanyahu whom will make his decision before the Attorney General and he unlike the Attorney General who had a good working relationship with Netanyahu in the past used to be an employer employed by Netanyahu as his cabinet secretary this is a man who has hated Netanyahu for decades his name is Reuven Rivlin he's a president and by the law in Israel the president can appoint any member of Knesset to form a government it doesn't have to be the leader of a party it doesn't have to be the leader of the largest political bloc it usually is a leader of the largest party not always let's not forget the 2009 election when Netanyahu was appointed by President Shimon Peres to form a government Tippie Livni the leader of Kadima the party up that Shimon Peres had last been in one one more seat in Netanyahu's Likud but Netanyahu definitely would have an easier time of forming a government because he was the leader of the largest political bloc at the time but no according to the law in Israel the president can pick any member of Knesset to form a government the president could right now summon Netanyahu and say I don't want you to be Prime Minister anymore I want Oren Hazan to be Prime Minister he goofball liquid MK who was 30th on the list of the liquid 130 seats and then if a majority if if Orrin hasn't could form a government with a majority of the members of Knesset he could be the Prime Minister quite soon and so the president can say this man's about to be indicted for bribery sorry but I decide I'm not letting him form a government Lee could you're the largest party by far pick somebody else there's precedent for that let's not forget that when a would Barack formed the government he his people said anyone but Shas they won't have anyone but Joss the Safari ultra-orthodox party in the government and Barak formed the government with Shas but said Arya dari isn't gonna be a minister cuz he had been already indicted so this could happen as well that the president could and Netanyahu's political career so when is this all going to be happening this is all going to be happening after our election now one advantage that you have in America is that you know when your election is going to be you know that your election is on the first Tuesday in November I think except if it's November first some something like that in Israel our laws say that elections are held on the third Tuesday in the month of Keshav on except if the previous year was a leap year in which case it'll be held on the first-years day in the month of Keshav on the month of - begins at six thirteen is real time tonight so according to the law in Israel our elections are really set for a year from the month that begins tonight but we haven't had an election on time since 1988 which is when the first time the Nittany I was elected to the Knesset even that election in 1988 doesn't really count as lasting a full four years because you had two prime ministers yet Jacques shimira and Shimon Peres who rotated in the prime ministership during those four years so elections in Israel tend to get moved up and it's now almost certain that this coming election 2019 will be moved up again not moved up by much but moved up nonetheless the ministers are fighting too much there going to be able to accomplish anything when the Knesset comes back on October 15 next Monday so what are they going to do they're going to first of all try to clean up various legislation that needs to be passed that it's all it's almost past that they can do and they're gonna stall because we have elections coming up on October 30th for mayors and you don't want to mix those mayoral races with the knesset of races they're run very differently the political parties are very different so we can't really have an election until after October 30th on November 13th is the runoff races for those municipal elections and we're definitely in of a runoff race apparently in in Jerusalem which is a race that Netanyahu cares a lot about I don't see the election being initiated before then we also have very important appointments that are going to be made in the very near future for a new chief of staff of the Israeli army a new chief of police a new Bank of Israel governor so those things have to be done before an election is initiated too so I expect the election to be initiated shortly after the 13th of November they have to be initiated by the second of December which is the deadline to pass a new law to draft yeshiva students this law is very difficult to pass there's going to be a meeting of the Council of rabbis of one of the ultra-orthodox parties this coming Sunday and unless they decide to surrender which ultra Orthodox rabbis tend to not do very often they're not going to be able to pass a new law and so we'll know that the election basically has to be initiated during that two and a half week period and elections are by law held anywhere between ninety and a hundred fifty days after they are initiated on a Tuesday that's the law now the tradition the tradition is to do it the minimum number of days later the first Tuesday from 90 days onward and so if our election is initiated on the last Thursday in November or the previous week before that in our election will be held on February the 26th which is the most likely date right now as we're sitting here but there is another factor which is those criminal investigations because of those criminal investigations Netanyahu could receive advice from his lawyers to try to get them held a little bit later to try to stretch on as much as you can maybe to try to pass the ultra-orthodox conscription law anyway it's not looking likely right now but let's just say his lawyers are going to have an impact on him when the next election is going to be held Netanyahu right now it's looking like he wants to have the election before the indictment so if anything he would want to have them as soon as possible which would mean initiating him immediately after that November 13th election now that's a Tuesday so if you have them initiated by November the 15th then we could actually have the elections on February the 12th that's a possibility anyway it should be very exciting and Netanyahu s we're sitting here definitely has the edge no one could really bring him down even the former chief of staff of the IDF who hasn't entered politics been against who is the best chance of getting elected doesn't have a very good chance of getting elected especially at the helm of a new party that no one's heard of yet which is the way it's looking right now that he would try to run and that leads us to the leader of the party that maybe he should be heading which is the Zionist union the Zionist union was the main alternative to Netanyahu's liquin in the last election in 124 seats compared to Netanyahu's Likud 34 most of the election campaign it was leading in the polls and if that party was smart it would tell its current leader a biga by we don't like you anymore you have no chance of getting elected we're getting rid of you right now the laws in the party making almost impossible to do that but when there's a will there's a way and they should have a will but I don't see it happening right now they're getting 12 seats in the polls 10 in the more likely scenario that Bennigan's is running ten seats so why is this man still being left there because he got elected and why is this man being taken seriously by the world I don't know yesterday he met with the king of Jordan the king of Jordan is a busy guy the king of Jordan has a lot of problems to deal with the king of Jordan has to deal with a lot of Syrian refugees with the Islamic state still sort of existing with all kinds of threats to him with Iran Iraq and the mess in Syria all very serious problems and he meets with avi gabbai I'd like to think he received some bad advice that that was worth his time which I think leads us back to America which we talked about at the beginning at least you know that your politicians come and go when it comes to the White House we because we don't have term limits we don't have the new blood coming in and the people of Israel don't seem to want it so that's what we will have except if one of the scenarios we talked about happens never a dull moment in Israeli politics stay tuned because after the break we will be talking about those local municipal races and we're having here and why they are exciting hi this is Yves Harrow host of rejuvenation on the Land of Israel Network you came here a new show from me every Sunday and every day of the week shows from another one of my very talented fellow show hosts reach me Eve at the Land of Israel calm and keep listening everybody we love your feedback the Land of Israel coming at you every day every week that's the Land of Israel network on the Land of Israel calm [Music] and we're back here on inside Israel today on the land the visual network on the land amiss result and we're back here on inside Israel today on the Land of Israel Network and the Land of Israel calm I would like to start the second part of this show with an apology an apology to my readers everywhere around the world because I have been apparently covering the local municipal races which take place on October 30th year in Israel in a shallow manner that is what what was written any column not I'm singling out me personally but we journalists in general here by one of the most respected columnists in Israel Savannah Rajas Meir she wrote a neo to her note that the municipal races are being covered in a shallow way and instead of letting the politicians tell us what they will do to improve their cities that we are encouraging them to attack each other to sling mud and we're reporting only that she wrote this in her column on Friday and in response to that suddenly all the politicians are saying these are our platforms write them down put them in the newspaper yesterday Zev Elkin one of the leading candidates for mayor of Jerusalem the Minister of Jerusalem Affairs called a press conference and he unveiled his platform ladies and gentlemen for an entire hour nobody stopped him maybe because we saw that column and felt guilty no that wasn't the reason ladies and gentlemen the reason was because it wasn't in a nice restaurant the CAF eat restaurant in the Botanical Gardens which I recommend you all try when you're here in Israel and it's a restaurant with a beautiful view with very good food with wonderful desserts and if you're expecting a wonderful dessert you will not interrupt even an hour-long rent explaining a political platform by a politician and they promise us we're gonna get to ask questions afterward and they promised us food so we waited remarkably patient and then I even wrote an article explaining his platform in the Jerusalem Post it's right there online if you're ever odd and if you're here please please PLEASE buy the print newspaper we want to print newspapers to exist if you aren't in a place where you can get a print newspaper pay the five bucks to have these special privileges on the Jerusalem Post website they feed my family and on those five bucks so read the article take those few seconds but don't read in great depth because the articles boring ladies and gentlemen it's a boring article it's about what the man is going to do if elected to have there be more housing in the city to improve the education system to clean up our garbage okay I apologize I find it more exciting when he attacks his political opponents but she didn't do it yesterday at all I one of the main candidates against time is Oprah bercovich he's a young guy a good-looking fellow cool guy and when he L can put out a campaign ad attacking him making him look like this really cool guy that doesn't know what he's doing after being elected mayor and comparing himself to him to him and in showing him being serious and being a guy who knows how to run a city and can receive the prime minister on the phone at any given point that was more exciting for me maybe I'm shallow fine but I find it more interesting to write more interesting to read and while I am going to make sure that the other candidates for mayor also get to deliver their platform to the readers of The Jerusalem Post and you will see an interview with the other leading candidate for mayor of Jerusalem moshe lyon li oh and it's pronounced lyon and i'm fortunately spelled li owen in friday's jerusalem post where he's going to speak about his platform whenever possible if I can get them to attack each other I'm going to continue to do it it's more fun and that's what I'm right whether or not they continue to feed me properly if you're listening to the show Moshe Lyon our interview is at this time tomorrow you're come your competition fed me a delicious waffle with ice cream and syrup on top I'm interviewing you at your house and I'm expecting a similar dessert yes I'm shallow listeners here to inside Israel today on the Land of Israel Network on the land of israel calm Thank You BA for being with us and we'll have a very exciting show again next week after the Knesset has come back and the political correspondents are back hard at work thanks for being with us have a great day from Jerusalem I've who are we as a people who are we as a nation what does it mean to be a Jew in the land of Israel as a Jew in Judea what is our message to the world were finally back in our land and we get to ask these questions des rata Shem we're gonna make Judea and Samaria an issue for the entire world to know that the Jews have a place in the world Israel inspired with aria Brom Woods and Jeremy Gimpel on the Land of Israel network at the land of the