Harold Gans The Project Inspire Convention 2021

there is a story told about a girl who came home from school and her mother asked her what did you learn today and she said oh we learned about the exodus from egypt the mother said really that's so interesting well what did they teach you and the girl paused the moment and she said well you see a long long time ago far far away the israelites they they were enslaved in this land called egypt and and they were treated really really bad they finally decided that they were going to engineer this mass escape and they escaped from egypt they crossed a small amount of the desert and they came to the sea the sea of reeds the egyptians thought ah they're trapped over there we can get them back but the israelites had anticipated that and they had their engineers build a pontoon bridge across the sea of reeds and they crossed over the bridge but the egyptian army got to the other end of the bridge just as the israelites got out on the other side and they started crossing the bridge too again the israelites had anticipated that too when the entire egyptian army was on the pontoon bridge the sappers the israelite staffers under the bridge blew up the bridge and the entire egyptian army fell into the sea and they drowned and that's how the israelites were saved from their slavery in egypt mother looked at the girl and said that's what they taught you at school and the girl said well not really but you know if i told you what they told me what they taught me you you wouldn't believe it you know the point over here of the story is do we believe it i mean do we blame the girl for being skeptical after all when was the last time anyone saw a miracle now i don't mean just a miracle that you know oh wow that's a miracle that that happened if it hadn't happened this would have happened that would have happened you know someone might say well yeah you were very very lucky uh yeah it just happened by chance no i mean something that you look at and say wow that's got to be a miracle like the splitting of the sea and not only for you alone not just one or two people a small group of people but public thousands and thousands of millions of people when was the last time that happened well what if i were to tell you that right now is the 30th anniversary of a worldwide miracle a miracle that actually happened 30 years ago and which the whole world saw and heard about more than two thousand years ago the great warrior and judge gideon lamented we are all the wonders of which our forefathers told us about that's in judges and yet here 30 years ago we had a public wonder the problem with it was that one has to know what to look for in order to know that it was a miracle you see it's not just a matter of looking at what happened one has to look at what didn't happen and so we go back 30 years to the persian gulf war took place from 17 january through 28 february 1991 39 scots were fired at israel from iraq two israelis were killed eleven was seriously injured the question is is it a miracle now undoubtedly there were people who were there who saw the buildings collapsing and saw people coming out alive and sometimes unscathed who said this is a miracle but you know that was emotion i mean how do we know that it was a miracle well you see first of all 39 scuds well not all of them actually fell in residential areas some of them fell into the mediterranean some of them were duds some of them were shot down by patriots some of them fell in the wilderness but the fact is that there were 14 scuds and by the way not just 14 scuds but also four patriot missiles which missed their targets and fell also and blew up in residential areas fourteen scuds plus four patriots that blew up in residential areas fourteen scuds two people killed and attracted scientific attention it was a paper scientific paper past paired through peer review by feder lewis and grundland appeared in the journal nature now nature is one of the two premier scientific journals in the world one of them is nature the british journal the other one is science the american journal so this is in a very very respected scientific journal nature january 28 1993 two years later and the title of the paper is why were scud casualties so low so obviously the numbers look very strange they attracted scientific attention and they have a formula probably developed by the military that tells you you tell it a missile comes down in a place what's the population density how many pounds is the warhead of the missile uh do the people have warning of the missiles coming and you put it into the formula and out comes a number that tells you how many people are expected to be killed by that missile how many people are expected to be seriously injured by that missile how many buildings are expected to be destroyed by that missile assuming that it lands in a residential area of course and you try out the formula you see there was this war took place at toward the end of 1987 through the beginning of 1988 it was called this the war of the cities took place between iraq and iran and iraq fired 125 scud missiles now by the way this was the al hussein scud b the modified scud beamer so the same one that was used in the persian gulf war took about exactly the same missile so they fired 125 missiles at tehran of which 86 gods actually blew up in tehran over a period of 52 days 422 people were killed the number of people killed per scud is 4.9 and in israel it takes seven scuds to kill one person you see the discrepancy now of course we don't know yet for sure because the population density might be different it could be also that the iranians didn't have warning that the missiles were coming and the israelis did at least for some of the missiles so we have to hold our judgment but it's clear that something strange seems to be happening let's take a look elsewhere around the world wherever scud missiles actually were used first of all in the persian gulf war there were five scuds that landed in riyadh and dharan saudi arabia 29 people were killed on october 27 1982 dezval iran one scud killed 21 people on april 4th 1985 in bhagtaran iran and in hamadan iran the first one killed 25 people the second one killed 11. may 11 1994 yemen once god kills 25 people may 22nd 1994 in aden yemen once get scud kills six people and two days later another one in sun uh yemen kills 13 people october 21st 1999 grozny chechnya two scuds one kills 27 people the other one kills 17 people february 19 2013 aleppo and taurif syria forced gods kill 141 people outside israel 18 scuds kill 335 people and if we take into account also the ones that were killed during in tehran during the iran iraq war the average comes after 7.2 people killed prescott and yet it is real the average is 0.14 person killed per scud 14 scots kills two people like seven to kill one so think about it in israel we have 12 scuds comes down in a residential area when i talk about the ones that missed we're not talking about the duds they exploded in residential areas of tel aviv or haifa it blows up buildings collapse gas lines are opened up electrical cables are exposed shards of glass are flying everywhere tremendous blast collapsing pieces of concrete no one is killed and again the same thing no one is killed and no one is killed and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again and again times no one is killed and then with two scuds kill eat one person each and yet outside of this reel it takes seven scuds to kill inside israel takes seven's guts to kill one person elsewhere each god kills more than seven people on the average in tel aviv 28 buildings containing 118 occupied apartments because remember that during the study where they were afraid of poison gas so they weren't going to the shelters they were in their sealed rooms in the apartments that were totally destroyed 28 buildings containing 118 occupied apartments that were totally destroyed 2493 apartments that were heavily damaged and in haifa an additional 1 700 apartments that were very heavily damaged and still only two people were killed notice the buildings were not protected only the people the number of buildings destroyed is exactly what the formula predicts should have been destroyed better at al in their paper in the journal nature and i quote why is it that less people die in israel from 14 scuds then die elsewhere anywhere else from a single scud unquote something very strange is going on here okay here are the numbers let's evaluate is it a miracle or is it not the paper by the way says that israelis were lucky now what's luck luck i flip a coin two three four five times and i get heads every single time you might say that's luck good luck six times yeah you're really lucky i suppose i flip it 20 times in a row and i get heads every single time are you going to ascribe that to luck or you're going to say no something funny going on here let me see that coin let me evaluate the coin something funny about that coin well let me watch carefully how you flip it something is going on you know why because the odds are a million to one approximately a million to one that should flip a fair coin flip it 20 times and get heads every single time 30 times it's a billionth one approximately okay so here we go use the formula how many people were expected to be killed in israel during the persian gulf war answer 24.2 how many were killed two now interestingly enough the paper does not calculate the probability of that happening they should have because that's the way to evaluate is it luck or is it not luck if the probability if the odds are great enough if the probability is small enough you say nah that couldn't happen just like flipping a coin 20 or 30 times and getting heads every single time they didn't calculate the probability they just said it was luck so i went ahead and did it i calculated the probability i'm a mathematician i've been calculating probabilities for decades for the united states department of defense the probability is 102 million to one 102 million to one for those of you who want to follow the calculations for those of you who want more details about it it's all in this book the cosmic puzzle this is where this information is taken from now in terms of the seriously injured 70.4 people were expected to be seriously injured only eleven were the odds 600 billion to one nine million billion this is far far beyond what anyone would call like and it is also meets the scientific threshold for believability for saying something is scientific based on statistical information this is far beyond usually for publication in the journal you only need one in twenty twenty to one that's all okay sometimes in medical field a hundred to one in the field of high energy physics it's a couple of billion to one here we talk about 600 billion to one and the persian gulf war ends on purim which is just a few weeks away the day of salvation for the jewish people now if something is truly scientific it ought to be reproducible that means that someone else should be able to do the same experiment or you have a different situation in which the same thing happens and that way you verify hey this is really a good a true effect see it didn't just happen one time you could say well regardless of what the odds are maybe maybe it was just luck who knows but if it happens over and over again then you verify the phenomenon is a true phenomenon and we have that here let's take the israel hezbollah war this was katyusha rockets instead of scuds but of course we take that into account in the formula a minimum of nine hundred and thirteen of these katjusha rockets exploded in residential areas of haifa hadera and including a hospital in sfas that was heavily damaged 53 people were killed now you know what that means it means it took between 17 and 18 rockets to kill each person 17 to 18 rockets and in israel you need seven to kill one here 17 to kill one outside of israel each rocket kills on the average more than seven here are the numbers 53 people were killed during this 2006 israel hezbollah war but you expected 131.9 people to be killed the odds against that 203 trillion to one not million not billion trillion 203 trillion to one that that could have happened just by chance seriously injured 250 people were seriously injured but you expected 387.3 people to be seriously injured that's odds of 18 trillion to one now note someone might think that perhaps because israel has been bombarded by missiles before and also by bombs perhaps their hospital system is so good that they're saving a lot of these people but you see if that were the case you would be decreasing the number of people from dying but you'd be increasing the number of people who were seriously injured because the person who would have died otherwise got good medical care he was only injured not killed but that's not the case you don't see an increase in the number of serious injuries injuries you see a decrease of both meaning it has nothing to do with the israeli medical system or the amount of attention or how fast they get them to the hospital this is an effect that's happening on the ground at the time of the explosion and once again reproducibility we go to 2008 the gaza war one thousand seven hundred and fifty missiles katushas and kasams were fired at ashd and ashkelon we estimate that approximately 75 percent of them were the smaller missiles the qassam's and only 25 the katyushas okay and not all of them hit but enough of them did we estimate approximately 23 and again the numbers can be found in here and the justification for them are in the book the cosmic puzzle 15 people were killed but you expected 58.4 people to be killed odds 54 billion to one that's not luck now in terms of the serious injuries i could not find the data data for that and therefore i couldn't make the computation but the data was there for the number of people that were killed this is far beyond luck now one might wonder why in the fetter paper that was published in nature did they not calculate the odds it's not hard to do if any person took an elementary course in statistics could have done it surely i suspect they did it and they didn't want to publish the numbers because then they couldn't say it was luck they would have to face the question of how did this happen if it's not luck the combined probability of over the three wars what is the probability that each one of us could have been just luck there's chance serious injuries it's a decimal point followed by 29 zeros and a seven decimal point twenty nine zero zero seven for the number of killed it's a decimal point followed by 29 zeros and a three you know what that's equivalent to that's not equivalent to flipping a coin twenty times and getting heads that's not equivalent to flipping a coin 30 times and getting heads that's like flipping a coin 98 times and getting heads every single time would anyone think for a moment that that just happened by chance oh i was just lucky flip the coin 98 times get heads every single time just luck that one no one in his mind would believe something like that if you prefer to think of it in terms of money everyday kind of thing no one stares around flipping before 98 times think of it this way what's the probability that someone a total stranger who has done no research a total stranger could guess your credit card number and use it to buy whatever he wants and max it out not just the 16 digits on the credit card but also the expiration date and the three digit security code and your name and your address what's the chances that just by chance he's gonna say well i'll take a guess he gets all 16 digits right and the expiration date and the security code and he guesses your name and he guesses where you live do you know something the odds of these three wars preventing people from dying and getting such a low count of number of killed the number of seriously injured is a hundred million times more significant than someone guessing all that information on your credit card if you believe that that happened just by chance you better not use your credit card anymore because someone might just guess it and max you out ruin your reddit your credit rating [Music] it's not luck it can't be luck notice again the number of buildings that were destroyed matches what the formula predicts should be destroyed the buildings are not protected the people inside the buildings are protected figure that one out who can ensure that an occupied building collapses from a massive explosion it buries people underneath glass shards are flying everywhere exposed electrical cables gas lines disrupted and at the end people just dust themselves off and walk away only 11 injuries and two people are killed and while the rest of them 12 times no one is killed there's only one answer and that is it was a miracle it unfolded in front of the entire world everyone knew about it over more than a month just 30 years ago but most people didn't know what to look at what didn't happen rather than what did happen now i happen to have a story that i heard from a friend of mine who's since deceased he worked for the department of defense and he was in a place where they were monitoring the missiles flying into israel from satellite photographs and so on and each time they had a television you know with with the israeli news indicating how many people were injured how many people were killed and after the first few missiles fell down some of the senior people came over to my friend who was clearly an orthodox jew and said to him what the dash is going on here how can this be i mean come on these are residential areas right in the middle of populator is big buildings apartment buildings collapsing people inside and they're just walking away what's going on here and my friend simply shrugged the shoulder and looked up and said like that there was no other explanation but now you know the math is there you can get again all the details are in here well the calculation sign in the book itself but in the endnotes of the book none of the original text all the details are there you could check it out for yourself if you're not a mathematician you could ask a mathematician friend or a science friend check it out the calculations are very straightforward and it's been verified scientifically god's hand not only in history of thousands of years ago as gideon was saying over 2500 years ago where's the wonders of god they're right here you just have to know what to look for and what to look that didn't happen thank you so very much you