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Autonomous cars will have a bigger affect on commercial real estate than Interest rates
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Autonomous cars will have a bigger
effect on commercial real estate and the
rising interest rates and I would even
go as far as saying the rent regulation
laws in New York for unstabilized
properties. Here's why. So, first of
all, just understand Whimo taxis operate
just in different parts of the country.
Just last week, Department of
Transportation came out that they're
starting to regulate and set up rules
and regulations for how they're going to
allow autonomous cars to go into the
road. So let me take you a step back to
understand how commercial real estate
valuations started earlier on. Someone
have a building. The first question I
remember sending in deals to a bank
would be how close is this building to
public transportation? Is it walking
distance? Is it not walking distance?
How far is the drive? And the further
someone was from public transportation,
the rents were a little bit lower
because if I could leave my apartment,
walk down two flights of stairs or one
flight of stairs, and right outside,
let's say there's a subway station and
go pick up the train, I'm saving on a
commute in the morning. If I have to
walk a couple of blocks, I'll pay a
little bit less. So, that was part of
the discussion, part of the
conversation. Why? That's number one.
Number two, let's take a little bit
broader. What happens suburban life,
city life, if I have to commute to work?
Such a drain on my family life. I don't
want to travel an hour every day, an
hour and a half every day work or an
hour each way or an hour and a half each
way. So instead, I'd rather pay a
premium to be in the city. So people
don't want to live in suburbans,
suburban markets. That's how people made
decisions. If you take a little bit
different approach, look at the highway.
You have a lot of these motel, these
motel along the highway along route
route
90 going up the 95. Those hotels are
there that if you if for the most part
someone's traveling, they have to
traveling through the night, they have
to go go to sleep, they pull over to one
of those hotels, they check in, they
leave in the morning, and they keep
traveling on the road. So these are on
the lowest level. When autonomous cars
come into the marketplace, what's going
to change is no one's going to think
that much about where they live in
compared to their commute. Because if
you can actually go into an autonomous
car and forget about the other changes
for a second, we'll get to about car
ownership and all that. Just simply put,
if cars would actually drive totally by
themselves, are you going to care if you
have to commute an hour to work? What's
the difference if I'm sitting by my desk
or if I'm sitting in a car for that
hour? I personally do a lot of work in
my car. I'm set up to do a Zoom call in
my car at any at any time whether I'm in
the driver's seat or the passenger seat.
I have I have a clip set up to put the
phone in there. I don't mind. So for
other people, if they're driving, yes,
for the most part, you can't do other
type of work. What happens if I didn't
have to drive at all? What I'm sitting
in a car and I have all the relaxation.
I can bring my computer with me. So I
work in my office six hours a day. One
hour on the way there, one hour on the
way home. That's people have a different
approach. suburban life valuations could
stop moving up because more people can
move out to to the suburbs. In the city,
it could also change. There are certain
people who didn't want to be there now
would leave. And where's the balance
going to fall out? That's just on one
level. The second level is also going to
change in which I said before about car
ownership because right now you want to
have a car for a couple of reasons.
Let's go by the second car first to
start or just in general car ownership
is I want to go somewhere I have to go.
I have to know I could go at any time.
In my neighborhood, Uber doesn't come
that that often or it's expensive. It's
not worth having an Uber. It's cheaper
to own a car. What happens when you know
you can just press a button? Unlimited
Ubers or the price of Uber has dropped.
I made a in Florida the price of an Uber
is very very cheap and especially if you
go a lift versus Uber, you could
sometimes be a 25% difference. It's very
very cheap. Sometimes it doesn't pay to
rent the car when you go to Florida. In
New York, New Jersey, it's going to be
much more expensive. So ownership,
sometimes you need the ownership,
especially if you're traveling a lot.
What would happen if there's an
autonomous car, the price to get the car
could be a half 50 to 60% cheaper than
what it is today? Because the labor of
the human that's driving is going to be
out there. So because that's out, if and
I know if there were a lot more cars on
the road, I could get cars more often.
Why do I need a second car and maybe
even a first car? That's going to start
to change. The genius of Tesla, which
most people don't realize, is that
Teslas are built to ultimately be like
an Airbnb for cars. You can be able to
get a Tesla and the technology is
already built now. Get a Tesla, drives
you off to work at 9:00 and then you
could tell the Tesla, "Come back and
pick me up at 6:00 and between 9 and 6,
it's going to drive around and be part
of the network of Whimo taxes." That is
the vision. That's the plan. We could
debate is it happening this year, in two
years, and five years or 10 years, but
it's clearly going to happen.
as if you really think about it. Now,
think about everyone that has a car,
their car is also a Whimo type taxi. And
obviously, it's not Whimo, that's the
brand that came first, but it's it's an
autonomous um um taxi. And you know, you
could press a button, you get it. It's
also going to change. It's going to
change now zoning. Think about now
parking. When they build a shopping
center, how many spots do they have to
have in that shopping center? But can
you imagine I get dropped off, I walk
into the store, I tell my car to pick me
back up when I'm finished, or it's a
different car on the way out, I press
the button. And if you really think AI
is going, as you have to register, it'll
automatically order me another taxi.
When I walk outside, I'll just go go
ahead and get that taxi. So, what's
going to happen for apartment buildings?
What happens to parking lots throughout
cities? Are there parking lots are going
to be needed? To what extent is it going
to be needed? There's definitely a
change going to come with car ownership,
parking, and redesigning even highways
and roads of of how traffic is going to
work. So many things are based on the
fact that my only way of transportation
is going to be through until now it's my
driving myself for the most part
isolated times I'll take an Uber or taxi
and public transportation how is it
going to affect the subway system the
trains what's going to change that
people go further and further steps
about how far out my goal of telling
this bringing this out here is to open
up your eyes to where the world is going
to and where the technology and when
it's going to come where do you think
that shift is going to be with
everything else with everything in the
world. There can be rich people and poor
people. People are going to lose because
of things and benefit because of things.
How do you want to position yourself and
you're looking out there making
decisions of investments, real estate,
which neighborhoods people are going to
live live in? Why are people going to be
scared to have an issue moving out a
little bit further? What were the
hurdles in the past and has that changed
with autonomous cars moving within
within a marketplace? The next debate
with that is is is home ownership is car
ownership really right? How many cars
you really going to have? Are you really
going to have one car, two cars, three
cars for everyone in the family or zero
cars? You don't need a car anymore. But
I will tell you one interesting
perspective that I think it's so
important to share. I have a neighbor of
mine, a genius, and he told me that he
will never go into autonomous car. Now,
obviously, I debate him every time I
hear stories of more and more people
using these Whimo taxis and and people
using Teslas and driving themselves, and
I and I talked to him about it. But he
told me an interesting statistic.
Everyone says it's much safer uh
autonomous car than it is for a driver.
Let's say a normal driver there's a 4%
accident rate and autonomous car is 2%.
He told me an interesting thing. When
you're driving, you have your own
choice. You could decide, you know, it's
up to you human error, but if you are a
safe driver, you could think, hey, I
with God's help never get into an
accident. I'll always make the right
move. Pull out of the way. Everything
will be fine. When it comes to
autonomous car, when they say there's
2%, 2% are accidents will always happen.
That means for every hundred miles that
are driven, every 100 cars go out there
and drive a couple miles, 2% of them
will get into an accident. He says you
the choice is gone. Furthermore, who's
making a choice for you? Who's making
the choice when you're driving the car?
When you're driving a car yourself and
you see something, you could decide, "Oh
my gosh, I want to I'm going to save
this. There's one person here or three
people here. It's an adult. It's a kid.
or if I go this way, I'll kill someone
else, but I'll save myself. I go this
way, I'll die, but I'll save other
people. You don't have those choices
when you're driving autonomous car. So,
other things have to be worked out
without a doubt. Other challenges
without a doubt. But the way things are
starting to move that people even joke
it's going to come to a point that soon
you won't be able to drive a car because
you're not safe. They don't want humans
driving cars. They want all the cars to
be autonomous on the road. So, this is
just food for thought for all of you.
But just beginning to think just like
when I came up AI know I you know I
coined the line where AI is not
replacing anybody. It's those that use
AI will replace those that don't. You
have to start taking autonomous vehicles
seriously. This is why all the companies
have move moved in that direction.
Department of Transportation is finally
starting to set rules and regs on how
it's going to work. Hope this is
beneficial to