מחוץ לפרוטוקול - פרק 8: נלחמים בפנים, נרדמים בחוץ

Off the record, the story that begins when the door closes, election edition. Presented by Yossi Elituv and Avraham Freund. >> Good afternoon, Avraham. >> A fantastic afternoon. A happy election season to us. " >> Happy," in quotation marks. >> Yes. Dead asleep. Never mind that there are no signs for Gimmel, Shas, or anything on the streets; I am talking about a disturbing drowsiness. I mean, okay, I understand, everyone has their own accounts and conflicts, but are the Haredi parties really prepared to abandon caution and bring us to a situation where...We collapse after the elections. >> Exactly. Look, the Haredi parties have some natural growth—I don’t know the exact number, but there's talk of about 100,000 votes, 50,000 for Shas and 50,000 new ones for United Torah Judaism. >> Now, the Haredi parties currently hold 18 mandates. Which means we should have been moving toward 20, right? Moving toward 20 mandates in these elections. Even if we subtract, say, two traditional mandates that we said leaked to the Likud, the Haredi parties should still be around the 18-mandate mark, yes. >> And the open talk among the heads of the Haredi parties is that even 14 or 15 mandates—if that’s how they end the election, it wouldn't be a surprise , which means not only will they not grow in the number of seats, but we will actually go backward. And that is a crazy, crazy event, and you would think that following such a crazy event , following this slumber, we would expect to see a campaign that starts to move, something meant to try and wake up the public, but nothing. >> And you know what? When I look at the parallel on the right, for example, at the emergency conference of the right-wing lobby of Krumby and his friends... >> Yes. >> Then I see a very interesting phenomenon; I see that there is truly an emergency mobilization there, Yossi Dagan is raising money to bring in the last voter, whereas here it seems like everything is working in reverse—they are doing everything to keep the guys at home. >> And that is because—let’s dive into why that is. Let’s try to break it down and understand together why this is happening. Let’s start first with the story of Degel HaTorah, with the battles taking place there between the Rabbis 'houses after a period of quiet. And you know, the Rabbis' houses cooperated, which resulted in Gafni and Maklev being pushed, and each house got two members of Knesset, a zipper structure in the first four spots. Now this mess has returned to the field, and it returned because one house is not willing to let the people of the other house into the headquarters. The story is this: will there be joint leadership in Degel HaTorah, yes or no? Rabbi Landau's house wants to convey clearly and in front of everyone: there will be no joint leadership. Right, we respect the Rabbi’s house, we respect the fact that this exists, there is no single leadership, but still, Rabbi Landau is the primary one, and he is central to the leadership of the movement. Wait a minute, let me clarify what you're saying: what you are basically saying is, is there already a circle of Torah greats around the figure of Maran Rabbi Lando, or are there "houses" like in the days of the masters Rabbi Elyashiv and Rabbi Shteinman in Jerusalem and Bnei Brak, where nothing would go out without those two houses? >> Yes, look, the only difference I think —and correct me if I'm wrong because I don't really remember the days of Rabbi Shteinman and Rabbi Elyashiv, I didn't cover them then—but here's the thing: Rabbi Lando and Rabbi Eirsh have been partners for decades, even before they imagined they would lead, yes, before they dreamed they would lead the Degel HaTorah party. So between them, every time you come to ask for a public decision, both Rabbi Lando and Rabbi Eirsh have always been interested in what their partner thinks. Naturally, two partners for so many years, they want to know what's happening, so it's very hard to pit them against each other. Great, they also live in close proximity, they talk, they meet in the Yeshiva, they can coordinate things between themselves. >> It is clear to me that their relationship will remain close and friendly. >> Exactly, right now all that remains is the environment around them. >> The sons, the grandsons, the aides, and the attendants, exactly. So now here is the question: will there be, as we began to say, two houses? Which means: a full partnership in the party headquarters, in the messages released, and throughout the entire axis, throughout the whole...Throughout this entire election campaign—are there two houses of rabbis or is there one? Rabbi Eirsh’s house demands full joint leadership, from end to end. Just as you wanted us for the ousting of Gafni and Maklev, you wanted us with you—even now, after that already happened, leave us with joint leadership. Rabbi Lando’s house is erasing this event. >> Let's see some specifics. >> Let's, let's, let's give the first example for a moment. >> Even before the figures, I want to give the first example: on the United Torah Judaism sign, they added a rabbi, there is suddenly a third rabbi in the leadership, which is Rabbi Povarsky. >> Who is a rabbi, yes, of course, but we haven't seen him in the leadership in recent years. Now. >> Apparently someone—and I leave it to the viewers to figure out who—didn't want only Rabbi Eirsh and only Rabbi Lando on the advertisement. >> I see. >> They added another third rabbi, and then it turned out that Rabbi Lando is in the middle, here to his right and to his left, who are the decision-makers in Rabbi Lando’s court? >> So there is Dovid Shapira, whom we already talked about in previous episodes, and there is Tuvia Lando, who are—yes, they are... >> This political story, I don't know. >> But he is in the area, I think, even less involved, I think. >> Because Lando is an older man. >> Yes, so that needs to be checked, I don't know. >> And opposite is Rabbi Eirsh’s house, which is managed by Aharon Eirsh, the son of Rabbi Eirsh, and Menachem Daitch , the one who accompanies the Rabbi all the time. >> Who is the counterpart of Dovid Shapira . >> Exactly, and opposite this whole thing, the, exactly, is happening all the time . >> And also on the grill is the spokesperson of the house, the strategist of the house, Yitzhak Feldman, who has a long history of struggles with the other side, and I can reveal to you that during the negotiations to oust the MKs, they even tried to oust him as well. >> Really? >> So, in short. >> What what what surprised me is that Degel HaTorah, in the triangle of Shas, Agudat Yisrael, Degel HaTorah was always perceived as a pragmatic, sensible party, one you could talk to. When I see how they are bleeding ahead of the elections, I try to understand where the responsible adult is. Because I see Yaakov Asher as a very big promise; he has beautiful leadership, unifying and singular. The question is if he really has the ability to start motors and embrace this whole group now , because there is the previous leadership sitting wounded on the side of the road, there are the internal courts, and there are the nicknames, and all sorts of guys with open accounts that if you try to understand what the account is, it will reach next Passover, and you won't finish all the bookkeeping there. Where is the responsible adult there? >> Look, I think that Yaakov Asher, first of all, knew what he was getting into when he became the head of Degel HaTorah. Yes, he knew, he knew it was a mess there. >> And what does that mean, he came from there? What is "he knew" and? During the Sukkot holiday, I think he tried to give respect to all parties; he went to all the rabbis 'houses, went up and down, and arrived and arrived with Pindrus and without Pindrus, and with the whole list. >> And he is trying. He is indeed identified with Rabbi Landau's house, but he is trying to calm the field. He very, very much wants to have a party, you know, united, and that he will be able to show that he comes to the table , even against Netanyahu. He has a big test, after all: both to bring at least the same number of votes as last time, and also, in the end, he is going to manage the coalition negotiations. And when on the day after, that is, that is two weeks from today, this person is supposed to sit across from Netanyahu in coalition leader meetings—that is a promotion. He was in the sixth spot in the last elections, and that is why he is trying to do it. But in the end, when you try to interfere, the opposition is the easiest to be when you try to be opposition; if we take for example when Goldknopf tried to be an opposition to United Torah Judaism and carry out attacks and say: "We will go with Gantz and go with the Left, and Netanyahu abandoned us," and attacks on him, and it was very easy for him to do it even as a lone member of Knesset. Therefore, therefore, interfering is not that hard. To connect and fix and collect all the pieces, that is the complex event. And that is the thing United Torah Judaism is facing today. And. >> I want to move to Agudat Yisrael. In Agudat Yisrael, there is an interesting phenomenon. >> There is the Porush and Stark faction, which is a refreshing faction that is already completely separate. >> Yes. From Agudat Yisrael. They call them "Chumat Torat Yisrael" on a technical level, and in the party's announcements, they refer to themselves as the heads of Agudat Yisrael. >> Very nice, everything is well and good, the Porush family always knew how to work, Shlomei Emunim and also the Stark one—this story is a nice move. >> But I look at Gur and Vizhnitz, and I understand that in Vizhnitz there is a battle; I don't know if it’s a succession battle, but there are two sons claiming the crown, the reins of political leadership. Where once there was one son, now there are two; there are the prayers of all the Jewish people for the Rebbe's recovery, and there are the events in Gur, which are also very complex internal matters. >> Exactly, let's, let's talk about them. >> And I don't want to, I don't want to— we are very protective of the dignity of the Torah giants, and therefore we will be very careful not to dive into those things. >> Let's talk politically, but I want to take a minute to ask politically: Gur and Vizhnitz are, after all, dependent on the eighth mandate. Meaning, what will make them a single faction or a pair after Stark and Porush left them is whether United Torah Judaism gets eight mandates or not. As of this moment, they need an Exodus-level miracle for an eighth mandate. And I truly ask: why is Gur letting the Hamodia newspaper sleep? Why Vizhnitz? What is happening here? What, are they —don't they want to get elected? Are they punishing themselves? What's the story here? I think there are a few answers, a few parts to this. >> Either these are conflicting interests, even within Gur these are conflicting interests, but even before that, fundamentally, in Gur they say: "We don't need a campaign, we don't need to mobilize the faithful at all. The Rebbe will give an order on election day to turn out, everyone will turn out, we will cover our mandate, we will cover it." >> A disciplined army. >> Exactly. We will know how to bring our 40,000 votes—I don't know if it's 30,000, whatever they are—and they are undoubtedly a large number of votes , so they think, they say: "Our share we fulfill. Now you want us to work like in previous times..." >> For Vizhnitz, for your allies. >> Oh, great, so here is where the issue comes in: is it better for them? Let's, let's put it this way: In Gur, they are furious at Degel HaTorah, at Yaakov Asher. Why are they furious at him? They claim he knew in advance about the "Chomat Torah" event. >> And he didn't stop it, or at least he didn't help; he didn't help them. The claim is: listen, the claim goes like this. I cannot verify it, because I wasn't inside the house when it happened, but the claim goes like this: they came to Rabbi Landau in the days before the lists were submitted and told him—if it happens—they told him that Agudath Israel was going to split in two: Tessler and Goldknopf in Agudath Israel, Porush and Stark in Chomat Torah, and so on. And the question arose if Gur—now, Stark and Porush came and announced this at the last minute, at noon, when you can submit the lists until that evening— the question arose if Gur would now say : "We are not prepared for this, if Stark and Porush want Chomat Torah, we must convene the Moetzet." They would have needed to, they would have created difficulties that would not have allowed the split. Who would Degel HaTorah side with in such a situation? Would it join with Porush and Stark or with Goldknopf and Tessler? And according to the claim, Rabbi Landau decided they would go with the side of Porush and Stark. Now, after this, Gur feels, you know, that they were wiped out, pushed to the edge; they don't want a representative from Degel, they want a representative of their own. I’m here to say that Gur had two Knesset members in the last term. Did that help them? No. They were still, they still felt like the pariahs of the Knesset, walking alone even when they had Tessler’s vote. And therefore, even if they want United Torah Judaism, even if, as you say, it will hurt them, it’s better for them to have one seat in the next Knesset, as long as United Torah Judaism and Degel HaTorah take a hard hit and the list drops to the six or seven-seat range. And then, then they will be able to say: See, Yaakov Asher didn’t deliver the goods, and despite the rigging, Degel HaTorah didn’t deliver. >> Like the modern version of "let me die with the Philistines." >> And I am willing to have one eye gouged out for it. >> Exactly, and we prefer the big downfall . >> Ma'aloud, I am sure you are wrong about that, and that's not what anyone in Gur is thinking. Come on, let’s talk about Shas. Shas is in a place where it started the election campaign, from an internal study conducted by Israel Bachar, Shas’s numbers man, which gave Aryeh Deri a picture of 6.1 seats at the absolute bottom. Then Maran Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef entered the picture , and it turned out he is probably the only vote-getter who manages to bring in votes for Shas. Today, in studies and internal polls, they are approaching the number eight, which is quite nice—to jump from 6.2 to almost eight. And if voter turnout isn't too high, or if the field for Shas wakes up , they could even reach nine seats. Meaning, if we have to give a sober assessment today, the two seats that went to Likud will never return, that is the 10th and 11th seats that were there; Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef is bringing them. What is he doing, Malachi Chaim? He is making two moves. For one, he is doing everything to destroy Ben Gvir’s vote reservoirs within Shas in the broader circles. He goes night after night, speaking the language of Holon and Bat Yam, with all the attacks directed at Ben Gvir. >> Personal attacks, the Temple Mount, nationalism, words without actions. What is he not, what is he not doing? Slaughter! I have no doubt he is destroying a seat for him. Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef is one thing. Second thing, Shas woke up late. They thought they had a brand, which is the poster of Maran Rabbi Ovadia Yosef; they didn't realize that the public in the broader circles doesn't know how to respect a poster beyond a nostalgic event. And then they immediately bring back Maran Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef and create, finally, a contrast. Now, it's done a bit artificially, but Aryeh Deri woke up. On track: every Friday he comes to study Shabbat laws with Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, they travel together in a helicopter. I don’t think a single election rally starts in the country today without Rabbi Yitzhak, even if he has a cold, gathering his strength, getting on helicopters. He had a forced landing earlier this week, on one of the days. So yes, Shas realized too late that it cannot function without spiritual leadership. The biggest question is how it finishes this round; after all, we haven't yet discussed Rabbi Abergel’s brother, I estimate her numbers at at least 20,000. It's an event in the south, but it’s a heavy event bordering on messianism there, and she will run to the end. >> And she will run to the end, and Shas is not engaging in any relationship with her. By the way, the only one who can bring them down is Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef. Meaning, if Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef goes to the home of the Abergels and humbles himself and pays a political and public price, he will do it. I, as of today, understand that Shas does not see the Rabbi Abergel event as more than 10,000 votes. I think they are wrong; it is a heavy event that they need to pay serious attention to. So we understand today that Shas is working with one campaign called: Rabbi Yitzhak , Rabbi Yitzhak, Rabbi Yitzhak. That is where it starts and that is where it ends. Regarding the Rabbi Yitzhak event , you spoke about some kind of magnet for traditionalist votes, but Rabbi Yitzhak is no less a magnet for the votes of the Haredim, of the yeshiva students, those who were furious— exactly—those who were furious at Aryeh Deri and the conscription law crisis. And Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, who was the most hawkish on this conscription story and said to tear up the conscription orders, to throw them into the toilet and whatever else he didn't say, suddenly brings backing to the Shas party and essentially neutralizes any harsh internal Haredi criticism. Even surrounding the recent arrests we saw, he neutralizes every— every criticism of the party, every criticism of Aryeh Deri, and therefore he is a huge asset to this party. By the way, it was even leveraged last week by Rabbi Yitzhak—the arrests event—to attack Ben-Gvir, which was also an amazing event. And therefore, Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef is probably the trump card in this party. He is the leading ace. You spoke about this matter of the traditionalists, that he brings them in, and certainly he brings in the young Haredim—those whom, let's say, parties like the black color could have swept up. I want, however, to ask a question that relates more to that—to that same pool of Haredi voters who are not in Shas and not in UTJ, and they are in three places: Leitner, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich, and I would like you to identify them; I understand it’s not 10 or 100. It is a public of thousands who are already, let's say >> They crossed the Rubicon already in previous elections, let's even say that ; they are no longer interested in spiritual leadership, yes or no; they want to feel an identity with who they vote for, they want to feel that they are working for them, and they are fed up with the Haredi politicians, they are also fed up with dealing only with Haredi issues and...And that is why they are in those three parties. We see Bezalel Smotrich holding very, very, let's call them urgent meetings with representatives of the Haredi public. Omer Rachamim, his close associate, sat on Saturday night with Moti Leitner. A slew of proposals came up there, from what I understand, at this meeting. He is trying to bring about his withdrawal , because he knows that even with m... look, in the end, the Moti Leiter event is one such event; there is a message in this party, there is a public that wants this party, but it is not enough to pass the electoral threshold, and that is the great tragedy. And if Moti Leiter, by the way, finished with 10,000 or 15,000 votes, it doesn't mean that's what he's actually worth. If he were passing the electoral threshold, if a person were leaving the house on election day knowing they are casting a vote for someone who is passing the threshold, we would probably see him with much, much higher numbers. But since he is not passing the electoral threshold in any constellation, in no way and under no probability, then his event could lead him to a place where he finishes in the region of 10,000 to 15,000 votes, even though potentially he is worth more. Smotrich basically recognizes this and says, "Leiter probably won't want to embarrass himself with 15,000 votes at the polls, because in the end, next time no one will count him. Let's take him, yes, and I'll gain another half-mandate." >> He can offer all sorts of senior positions in the Beit Shemesh municipality, where Moti Leiter is already located, maybe some support for next time, maybe you know, in the end we don't know if there will be repeat elections or if there will be a clear decision, maybe a spot further ahead than what he offered him last time. Last time Smotrich offered him the 11th spot and it ended there with an explosion. And therefore one must note, look, Leiter swears that he is running to the end and that in any case this is the message and blah blah blah, but we will have to see in the coming days, you know, in coalition negotiations they always say whatever you don't get at 1:00 PM you'll get at midnight, so Leiter also knows here in this event that Netanyahu is also flirting a little with Leiter. >> Right, I don't know yet how far it has reached, but they are indeed checking this story, and ultimately when you reach the last week of the elections, you collect every vote. No one thinks these elections are secure, and Netanyahu does not think he is winning them for certain. It could come down to a few tens of thousands of individual votes, and in the end you have a bit of Noam, a bit of Leiter, a bit of this; it burns up a few tens of thousands of good votes for you. And therefore, Netanyahu is clear, and this will only increase. As we get closer to the elections, he will cast a glance at every single party, no matter how small . Don't be surprised if you suddenly see him going up to Rabbi Tau to try to convince him to take Noam out of the race; as we get closer, the price will rise, and every vote truly becomes decisive and influential. >> I want to say something about Smotrich; look, Smotrich is the best provider of results for his voters in the outgoing term. The world of Torah also benefited from him. I say "also" because we both suffered from him and benefited from him together; we suffered from him because, in the end, some of the budgets that were supposed to reach us landed in the territory of his voters. On the other hand, he fought a lot for the settlements, and cities like Beitar Illit and Modi'in Illit benefited from him, and ultimately, on issues of very important spiritual matters, he was an ally to us. But I say it like this: in politics, we are always trying to say that what happened yesterday will be what happens tomorrow. I'm summarizing the current chapter where we've burrowed into our own parties and didn't sail to other parties, [but] we need to know that we will arrive at a completely different reality after the elections. First, it is very possible that both United Torah Judaism and Shas will not be able to enter any government. Meaning, even if there is a possibility they will enter, the game will be about outside support until there is a draft law, and a draft law can even take a year. >> This is true even if they bring 66 mandates and a right-wing bloc, and everything will likely take a few months until you succeed. >> Second thing, second thing, if we reach a situation where one or two mandates are missing. And, for example, a person like Goldknopf could give Mr. Eizenkot the missing mandate; I don't rule out that he won't give it to him in exchange for some deal on a consensus draft law. Therefore, this is also a heavy event. And the more dramatic thing: everything we knew about the internal distribution, in the parties, what was true until today, is no longer relevant. Gur will not see any government ministry from the inside. No minister from it will be, not Goldknopf and not anyone else. If they enter inside and a miracle happens, and the Haredim form the government and the draft law passes, then the candidate to stand as a central minister—if it’s Housing or something—well, that is Yaakov Asher (Gur does not exist there) . And if we go to Shas for a moment, there too we understand that Aryeh Deri is working on some reshuffle; what was is not what will be. Meaning, if he gets, for example, the Ministry of Interior, I have my eye on Israel Ozen as a candidate to be Interior Minister under the status of a professional appointment. Meaning, he is not a man with a political camp, he is not Yemenite or Persian or voters, but he is a candidate. Others whom we saw as ministers, I don't know who will come, who won't come. It is a different Aryeh Deri who is doing a type of primary, testing everyone now to see what each one is worth. And I really suggest that we put on new glasses. And not only is this whole election campaign different from all the others, its results and the political map that will come after it will be completely different. Just as we didn't imagine the last government, so too we don't know how to imagine the next government. And just to conclude on what you mentioned regarding Aryeh Deri. Two things that I see surrounding Shas. One, complete intervention by Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef in the coalition negotiations. >> Including portfolios. >> Including portfolios, including everything. And like you said. >> An unpleasant form to say. Exactly, he is going to intervene there. He is not —come on—this will be given with spiritual emphases surrounding the heritage of Maran Rabbi Ovadia, but it will reach the base of the base. >> Exactly. And on the subject of United Torah Judaism, as you said, Yaakov Asher will take the Housing Ministry. Rabbi Landau has likely already decided that it is possible to take a portfolio for the first time. We talked about this here in the very first episodes even before the dismissal process, and as you said, it could be that we will see Goldknopf head the Finance Committee. Do not underestimate this event. It will be interesting. >> I don't see any government giving funds to the ultra-Orthodox, not even Netanyahu's government, but we'll live and see. >> Oh, I just wanted to say one more thing about Shas. >> Please. >> If Ben-Gvir ends up with a double-digit number or a higher number of mandates than Shas, then a new world order will open up within the right-wing bloc, also in terms of the fact that Aryeh Deri is no longer the sole member of the war cabinet, and is no longer invited to Netanyahu's—whatever Netanyahu gives Deri...... >> he will have to give to Ben-Gvir, and especially in the distribution of portfolios, we will see a new distribution. I conclude this conversation by saying that we commentators also need a lot of humility, because we are discovering many new things we didn't know, and we really need to be skeptical. We understand that we are heading for a kind of political deadlock; we understand that there is no resolution on the horizon, but we also understand that there is a lot we don't understand . It's possible that the dramatic gaps in the polls, like Filber's 33 for Likud versus the 20 mandates of Rosner and Dudi Chasid, teach us that we might discover a new country we don't know. Maybe the change bloc will put up a huge fight and bring a government on its own? It's a walk; suddenly we've entered a maze, we know nothing. >> Maybe the secular Messiah-Admor Benjamin Netanyahu will actually do the unbelievable and manage to spark a fire in the base of the voters, even those who are angry at him, and bring in 30 mandates? Who knows? I don't really know anymore, and that's how we'll sign off with this piece of knowledge. Thank you very much. >> Thank you very much. >> Good news. >> You’ve been listening to "Off the Record" from Mishpacha Magazine’s podcast. I am Yossi Elituv, and with me is Avraham Fried. Thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound and video editors Avremi Weisel, Daniel Levin, and Hillel Willner. All series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, on all podcast apps, and on the phone line 077-220, extension...74. See you, God willing, in the next episodes.