מחוץ לפרוטוקול - פרק 7: הקרב על האדישים

Off the record, the story that begins when the door closes, election edition. Hosted by Yossi Elituv and Avraham Freund. Well, we have entered the three-week stretch of the elections. We are starting to count down the days in the election campaign. The most dormant and boring one we've ever faced, at a time when we were all certain that following October 7th, we would reach the most turbulent system possible— because both camps are coming to fight with all their might. And we are seeing it as the most boring. In the Haredi street, I don't see a single sign. I remember as a child in '88, I remember the elections that were always around after the holidays, that Sukkot were holidays, not of clown shows from all sorts of dubious characters who came from America to take over our Sukkot here in the country, but we are talking about stormy elections. The Shas, Quiet , there's nothing. And on the street too: Bibi isn't campaigning, Eisenkot isn't campaigning, nothing. What is happening here, Avraham? >> Listen, this is truly an amazing event. That as you said, we are three weeks from the election, we are after plenty of drama in the Haredi parties and in the right-wing bloc, and nothing is happening. There is one thing that is happening, and that is the complete disregard of the public for this whole story. Everyone you talk to on the street says: Oh, really? What, there's an election in three weeks? People don't know, don't even remember that these elections are taking place soon, and that is a very interesting event. In the Haredi parties, they promise that in the coming week we will see the awakening and they claim the awakening is fast. Once it lights up, it lights up. The test for them, and I think the first sign, for example in Shas, will be around the event for Rabbi Ovadia Yosef, his Hilula, and the Attorney General who allowed the event to take place and be funded. In Shas, they are planning to hold events all over the country, some project where every person will light a candle and do a Hilula and write "I too am part of this Hilula," and all sorts of things like that. In short, these are all sorts of protest movements that will help ignite the campaign. In United Torah Judaism, they are also supposed to launch their campaigns for the communities in the coming days, as well as one big campaign. Let's see if they will really arrive at the actual arenas of the election, but I want to talk a bit about polls and studies, and we prepared for this joint broadcast; in the polls and in-depth studies, we understand something very, very clear. The desired scenario for the right-wing bloc is the Likud alongside Smotrich, Feiglin, Ben-Gvir, and the third party of Ofer Winter. This entire triangle needs to bring at least 45 mandates. Meaning, it cannot go below the 45- mandate line. We will see soon how that is divided between them. The 45 [seats] —the Haredi bloc needs to work very hard to bring the 17-18 mandates, which is actually what pushes the whole bloc to 63 mandates. And if we reach such a result, then Bibi at least has a kingdom, has a government, has a victory. If the three right-wing parties don't know how to reach 45, and if the Haredim don't know how to bring at least 16, then we have a defeat. Today we know how to read the numbers very clearly. Let's talk for a minute now about 45 seats. How are those 45 seats structured? So we understand there is a scenario where Likud gets 25 and the other block gets 20. And there is an opposite scenario where Likud will be around 20 seats, which is what I estimate. And the 25 will be divided: five seats that will go to Winter if he takes off—we'll talk about that—and the other five seats will be divided between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. And we see a drift, a lot thanks to Feiglin, but also Smotrich, toward that party. I , by the way, don't buy the six or seven seats for Ben-Gvir; I'll look at the internal polls I conduct and I have data from past years: Ben-Gvir is already at a double-digit result, in my opinion he is sitting on 10 seats now. If he settles at 13 or 14 and drops Likud to 19 or 20, I don't know; it all depends on the fluctuations that will happen here. Uh, so in any case the event here is the 45 they are getting, who brings the 20 and who brings the 25 . Winter is down right now, I'm not saying he won't take off—you can't know, you have to keep reading him. In any case, if he goes down then the votes will return a bit to the center and secular parties, a bit to Likud, and a bit to Smotrich and Feiglin, those are the areas, and a bit to Liberman, and the big event is the Haredim. Today we already know that Shas can bring eight seats, maybe nine with a miracle, and United Torah Judaism moves between seven and eight due to demographics. And if a miracle happens and Shas reaches nine, which I don't think can happen, then of course the entire sector will smile. Those are the numbers we have. I will tell you about slightly different numbers that they present in Likud, and the Likud pollsters, they claim that Likud will indeed get closer to the 30-seat direction, that there is no reason and no...they don't find anywhere that there is such a dramatic drop as they are trying to portray on Channels 12 and 13, showing them with 18 or so seats. They claim that it will indeed close in the area of 30. Uh, now a very set figure of 30 seats for Likud. That’s how they really swear in Likud that they can bring this result. They claim that in deep research they conducted based on others and based on all kinds of audiences, they don't identify any drop, certainly not of 10 seats from their party, and even in the primaries, by the way, in Likud, the relative number that showed up proves that the party is not really collapsing —that is their argument. >> How much do you give Likud? >> I don't know, because I'm already confused by the polls. We have never in our lives been in a situation where you have a poll that gives 18 seats and a poll that gives 33, a gap of 15 seats, and we weren't even at half of these gaps. So I don't know what to tell you. I do know one thing to say: the trends have indeed turned in favor of Likud and the right-wing bloc, even in the polls of Channel 13 and Channel 12, in the aspect that it is no longer 48 seats, [but] 50, it is 52-54 seats. And it's true that it's still not enough, but the trends have indeed changed in favor of Likud. And one more very interesting figure about Ofer Winter that they are saying in Likud is that his potential pool of votes is 150,000. But when you ask and break it down to people, are you sure you will vote for this party? Only 12%out of these 150,000 say we will definitely vote for them. Meaning, the displayed pool of votes for Winter is 20,000. And that is why they say in Likud that such a party cannot pass the electoral threshold. In the coming days, we will see the cannons aimed at Winter. Not from the place of Yoseph Haddad with the Palestinian state story, just from the place that Winter is all hype. >> Yes. I want to talk for a minute about Likud, about its advantages and disadvantages. Likud has a drift from Likud to Ben-Gvir. That is clear. Why is it not measured in the polls? I don't know. There was a drift from Shas to Likud of two mandates. You see it, both Likud and Shas, clearly. The advantage of Bibi is that he is the only one who works seriously, starts campaign meetings at midnight, knows how to run elections, wants to win, >> Says come day and night, >> Yes, wants to win, champion of the world, he is also not soft, compared to Eizenkot who failed at the campaign, reached some height, got stuck, I don't know how this whole Eizenkot event is going. I would actually relate more to Lapid and Bennett, who are trained battle horses. And in elections, I think they are undersampled, that's how I think, I think they are worth more and Eizenkot less, certainly in the election mechanism, Lapid knows how to lift an election, he has excellent field personnel, and Liberman. >> Bennett plows the country properly, meets. >> But Bibi, he has these advantages. On the other hand, we know Bibi's bases of anger: base of anger number one is the October 7th community, it is the bereaved families, it is those harmed from the northern front, these are people who paid a price in the war, economically, right-wing people who I think could stay home–which is the great disaster, it is greater than them going to Eizenkot or someone else. Therefore I don't see the fact that Eizenko...that they don't pay, that Bibi doesn't pay...otherwise, otherwise it cannot be. When I speak about paying a price, I'm talking about 100,000 people. 100,000 people is three mandates, 2.5. Now we know, we know that in the last elections they count 64 for us. >> 506. That's not true. >> Because the truth is it was 60-60 because the Left burned with the Arabs and with the land the number of mandates they were supposed to have, therefore if you measure it according to the previous pool, measure that you were in a tie pool. Now think for yourself. On one hand, there is a drop from the land of about two mandates from the Left, which is supposed to pay the price in this bloc. On the other hand, you have the 100 or even 120,000 right-wing victims who will not come to Bibi. >> And you have about 300,000 new votes, most of which are religious and Haredi. >> True. But, but there are a lot of people who are angry. A lot of people who are angry. And now in the bloc itself we know that in Shas there are fewer people who want to go vote, so the confidence they talk to you about 30. >> No, but there is still a difference between saying they will lose two or three mandates—yes, today they are at 33 mandates—and a drop towards 28 mandates, which is five mandates, meaning tens of thousands of votes that ... >> Where is the influx of Tally Gotliv and the whole gang from Likud? Even now I don't understand what Ben Gvir did with this move. I don't think Tally Gotliv contributed anything to him. I also want to say something else. Otzma Yehudit initially marketed Tally Gotliv very, very strongly, and we saw her on billboards. By the way, I think she's the only one he does billboards with besides Leitner. And later on, it changed a bit. On the day of the High Court hearing regarding the Arab parties—whether to disqualify them or not. The party was represented by both Itamar Ben Gvir and Tally Gotliv. The Otzma Yehudit announcement stated that only Itamar Ben Gvir represents [the party], Tally Gotliv cannot be remembered as...It can't be honored that they do that to her at the beginning. Can you understand this move ? Tally Gotliv is an independent person , she will be an independent person for Ben Gvir too. I'm also not so sure that Ben Gvir's intervention within Likud— like when Tally Gotliv was disappointed with those people and started an argument with them, and then it became a refuge for Netanyahu's victims—I'm not sure Otzma Yehudit is so smart [for doing that]. >> By the way, Netanyahu also played with her, played with Ben Gvir there, giving the feeling that he isn't letting go of Tally Gotliv so quickly, but of course he's happy she eventually went to Itamar. >> Look, there is a very complicated situation inside the Likud campaign. Ask me, what is Bibi selling to the public now? Give me, give me a narrative. So I know that his advisors —and here I’m sharing a scoop— suggested he announce that these are his final elections. >> Like in all the last five election campaigns. >> But no, he never announced that it is. >> No, he didn't announce it. But every time the possibility came up that he would do it. And they said that if he says it, he brings back home 50%of the voters angry following October 7th. He refuses to do it, either because he truly thinks he’s the Messiah and is here to live forever, or he thinks it weakens him—I don’t know the reason . >> Don't think he doesn't have a bloc even in such a case, and then he goes to more elections—that's a problem. >> To set an expiration date—we are in a heavy situation here because we don't know, at the end of the day, what Bibi is telling the public, tell me. >> I will tell you what he is telling the public. He is telling the public one very clear message from the very beginning. >> If you don't vote for me, you will get a government of Eisenkot with the Arab parties. And this thing, according to the Likud and according to Netanyahu, still sticks and still resonates, even more than before the massacre and before October 7 th—when there was still some dream that it was possible to cooperate with Arab parties and such . This is the line Netanyahu goes with, even when the discourse at the beginning was about the three Haredi laws that passed, about recruitment, about this issue, and even now when there are additional stories; Netanyahu sells one message: Eisenkot and Abbas are one and the same, and with this thing he runs. >> And do you think that with this, he brings in the 64 seats? I don't know, I don't. I am personally confused by the polls. I don't know how to decide on these things, but when you hear the explanations in the Likud as to why they get 30 seats in their polls, and when they prove to you city by city that there is no collapse there—they say: We go, we come to raise Likudniks, Sderot, Beersheba, all these things, we don't see any decline, we don't see it. Netanyahu went out to malls, went to places—did you see any place where someone yelled at him, was furious at him? Everywhere he is received like a messiah, as you said. So they say, where, where did those 10 seats that were lost go? Where did they go? Where did they go? No one knows how to answer that. >> Very interesting. By the way, let's talk a bit about Shas and United Torah Judaism. Tell me what is happening there in terms of what they expect and where we are heading there. >> First of all, Aryeh Deri had a good holiday. He enjoyed the Sukkah very much. Everyone made a pilgrimage to him . Everyone, Knesset members, rabbis, yeshiva heads, except for the members of the Council of Torah Sages who are the Torah scholars, yes. >> Exactly. Apart from that, everyone came to him, everyone went up to see him, and every day a mass prayer with hundreds of people. And from what I heard, the man was in a good mood and had a good holiday. When the plane incident happened, he received a call from the Prime Minister, an update call on what is happening; he also after that, of course, uh...gave a small speech about it in the Sukkah, and now he is arriving at the real battle. At a certain stage in the month of Elul, he said I don't want to invest all my energy in this story of the "Selichot"( penitential prayers), even though it supposedly helps him, because between the Selichot and the elections there is still a whole month, and a whole month in the State of Israel is...Crazy. You know, whoever went to sleep here last week on the morning of the plane story at 8 in the morning, or hadn't woken up yet and got up at nine in the morning, already woke up to a new reality. Therefore, Aryeh Deri made a decision: I will do the Selichot, some softening towards the traditionalists, and yes, put out a few videos with soldiers and all sorts of things like that, but the, the rest of the heavy artillery I am saving for the last month, for the last two weeks, and that will be around the memorial for Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. Another thing that surfaced: in the coming weeks we will see a focus on yeshiva students, a campaign aimed more at them. You know, we saw at the beginning uh more of a direction of, you know, a traditional campaign and, and that in every Shas family there is both a soldier and a Torah student. In the coming period, we will see a focus on the yeshiva students with the goal of getting them out of the house. That is what Shas has. There’s also the story of United Torah Judaism; of course, we’ll see some developments there in the coming days too, but there , you know, Yaakov Asher is trying—so far successfully—to bring United Torah Judaism back to being one party, so it won’t be a party where every Knesset member does as they please. He hosted all the Knesset members at his place during Sukkot—this was the day after Amit Segal reported that in the event Eizenkot could form a minority government, Goldknopf wouldn't object. Yaakov Asher sits next to Goldknopf and tells him: It’s very good that you issued that statement yesterday, uh, because he had immediately issued a statement that a government would only be formed if they pass the conscription law, and he tells him: It's very good you issued that statement, and he says there: I ask everyone to maintain consistent messaging. >> As if Yaakov Asher sees himself as the leader. >> Yes, exactly as the leader of the party , and he’s really giving there, uh, sort of, you know, clear messages to the Knesset members: you can't each speak however you want. >> By the way, do they accept his leadership? >> Look, it will take time, but I think that Yaakov Asher, firstly: he has good relationships with everyone, he is valued by everyone. He will have his quarrels, there will be frictions, but in the end, the man is worthy of leadership, suited for leadership. We know his capabilities, we know the man, and I don't think there is one person in this party who thinks that he is not worthy of leadership or something like that. You know, it might take a few moments, you know, until they get used to the fact that he moved up from sixth place, or I don't remember what place he was in last time, to such a high position, but they will accept his leadership and there will be one campaign. You see, there is one campaign, contrary to previous elections. This time in United Torah Judaism there is one campaign, and therefore I think that in the end they will accept his leadership and he will succeed in taking control of this party . Uh, alright, with an asterisk always. >> Let’s talk for a minute about Ofer Winter, Avraham. >> Ofer Winter is essentially entering a very, very difficult spot. All sides and partners are attacking him. He is essentially filling the place now of that unity bloc that formed here before , of Gilden, of...All the Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper and all that thing that fell apart. Essentially, Ofer Winter has become the one standing in this spot. He is standing in the middle ; he managed to make people believe that on one hand he wants the right, he wants the right-wing bloc, he wants Netanyahu, and on the other hand, uh— That he won’t go with Eizenkot and Liberman. Wow. He’s taking hits from all sides and all directions, he’s getting hammered. Netanyahu also attacks him for not being loyal enough to the bloc, and also Eizenkot and Liberman attack him, and it’s for one simple reason: because he’s not... again, he is in the middle. He is in the middle, and this "middle," we’ve already learned, is very problematic. And his chances of passing the electoral threshold are going down and down. Even in the Kan News poll, for the first time, he did not pass the electoral threshold this week. Also his incident with Yoseph Haddad, this campaign that’s going after him, which I think is Smotrich's campaign, where they found a clip of Yoseph Haddad or two clips of him saying he is in favor of establishing a Palestinian state, and that really hurt him with the right wing, which on one hand wants the right but on the other hand doesn't like Netanyahu that much. And also the message he is trying to give: that I am going with the right, but I want a draft law and such. And it's like on one hand he tries to say Goldknopf is a worthy partner and the Haredim are worthy partners, but on the other hand he gives them demands, you know, a full draft law and all sorts of things like that which they cannot meet. Therefore his clumsy messaging is bringing him to this point of collapse, and we see it now in all the polls and in all the trends, and there will be a big problem here with this event. >> But do you think in the end Bibi will try to breathe life into him and lift him up or will he collapse him? >> No. Netanyahu made a decision right from the start. Even back when it looked like he was worth six or seven mandates, that he is dismantling him, first of all because Netanyahu didn't see him as loyal. Now, Netanyahu also doesn't see him as someone who can pass the electoral threshold, so his fate is sealed, as for the attacks we will see in the coming days, Likud members going and attacking him more and more sharply , we will set the pace, this program about the elections will be a little less sleepy, we will be able to come with more dramatic things, you were very pleasant to us, we will meet here God willing next week. >> Thank you, have a healthy winter. >> You've been listening to "Off the Record" from Mishpacha Podcast, I'm Yossi Elituv and with me is Avraham Freund, thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Ayala Goldstein, and sound and video editors Avremi Wiesel, Daniel Levin, and...all the series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, in all the podcast apps, and on the phone line 077-220. Extension 74, goodbye, God willing, in the next episodes.