מחוץ לפרוטוקול - פרק 6: שלוש חזיתות, קלפי אחת

Off the record, the story that begins when the door closes. Election edition, presented by Yossi Elituv and Avraham Freind. A new year, new blessings, hopes, expectations. And they stamp this beautiful year for us with elections. Between us, really. Is it spelled with a 'Het' or a 'Khaf'? No, there is really nothing more disgraceful than elections. It's an entire industry that is completely manufactured, not real. Usually, most parties and almost all the people present some profile as if they are so and so. Everyone is full of themselves, some serious face, pretending they care about the public and all that nonsense. And the truth is that we are a country very similar to a place I visited five years ago, Warsaw. I was in Poland and met a businessman there; it was a business trip. And that man told me that Poland is an exact mirror of Israel. He tells me, we have almost the same citizens, we have right and left, we have a Shas-like party, a religious party. And what I loved is that, basically, it's a tribal event. No one cared for the good of the state of Poland or the state of Israel. The tribes are just looking out for their own. Each one is improving their own status. They each care for their own friend, what will happen when he goes to prison or what happens when he's in the opposition, and that’s the State of Israel. I looked, Avraham, we are already in...We've entered Tishrei. I said: If the parties received so much money, where are the campaigns? What, some cheap video worth nothing, is that a party campaign, and where are...The supertankers and the strategists in our sector? And it seems to me that these guys have started to get tired of themselves. Yes, I really connect with what you are saying. If we once saw the "Transparent " campaign or all sorts of brilliant campaigns, this time we don't see that. There is no refreshing innovation, no interesting headline, no... There isn't even a "father looking from above" or a "son looking from below"— let's even start with the Likud. The Prime Minister, what is happening to him? Does he have a campaign? Does anyone know what his campaign is, does anyone know what he wants to broadcast? Does anyone see the headlines in Jerusalem, the posters, the billboards? I think there is a very, very significant event here where no one has too much to sell. Particularly on the right side of the map, everyone comes with—you know—the stain of October 7th. And conversely, the Haredi parties arrive with their own stain of their failure in the last term, and that is the result. In fact, the campaigns do not focus on why to choose us, but rather focus on campaigns of...fear: what will happen if we don't get elected? Then Mansour Abbas will rule here, and they will hand over all of Judea and Samaria to the Palestinians, and the legal advisor will sell out the children of Israel, the Haredi children , and the Haredi youth. And therefore, the campaigns focus on fear, less on a vision. Ah, that's it, except for... Well, the sixth episode of Freind and Elituv focuses this time on several very interesting arenas, and I will actually start with what is called the Ben-Gvir arena. One arm Shas and the other arm Likud. We challenge and reject the results of the polls from all the institutes, saying that anyone giving Itamar Ben-Gvir between six and eight seats isn't walking the streets and isn't reading the public. I see at least three to five Likud seats defecting to Ben-Gvir. I see it among the young people, among drivers, among lots and lots of Likudniks who are fed up with the niceness of the Likud. Let's put it this way: Likudniks who don't see anything on the Likud list besides Netanyahu, and they get that through Ben-Gvir too. Nice. So, on one hand, I see a very nice package that will put Ben-Gvir in double digits and bring the Likud down to numbers they haven't dreamed of. Although it remains within the bloc, it will change all the rules of the game. I see the same arena for Ben-Gvir against Shas and also a bit with Torah Judaism. I know there are quite a few young people who want to vote Ben-Gvir in Ashkenazi yeshivas, but with Shas, the further you go into the more peripheral circles, you see the pull people have between Shas and Ben-Gvir. Now look, I don't know what the secret to Ben-Gvir's charm is. I don't know everything, but I can tell you I understand why masses of Shasniks and Likudniks want to vote for him. Is it because they are disgusted with their establishments or because they want to? I don't know, but it's clear it dawned on Shas, albeit late, that if they don't run a vicious campaign against Ben-Gvir, they'll lose one or two seats . And the Likud is also waking up—you asked where the campaign is? They are planning to go out to battle the day after Simchat Torah, and they will go for Ben-Gvir's head with all their might, because they realize that if Ben-Gvir is at 40%of their size, or even a third of them—let alone 50%— well, he opens the list and says to Mr. Netanyahu: one portfolio for you, one for me, one for me, one for you. Defense, Justice, Foreign Affairs, whatever he wants. Because this whole event is very interesting, since right now the assessments of all the pollsters are that we are in a kind of political tie. The Arabs are in the middle; the pendulum was once more toward the "Change" bloc, now more toward the right-wing Haredi bloc, but these things are still within the margin of error, and we are in a situation where most pollsters estimate there will be no decision in the upcoming elections. Meaning, if there were elections tomorrow, I'd be willing to put more than 100 shekels on the table that there is no resolution. Not Liberman, and not Eizenkot—as the Moroccans call him, Eizenkot, not Eizenkat—and not Netanyahu; no one knows how to form a government. It’s frustrating, it’s disappointing, but that's the result. But we do see a trend reversal in Netanyahu's favor in recent polls, in polls we saw a few weeks ago that gave a 61-seat bloc in some of the polls to Eizenkot and Bennett without the Arab parties. Now we see them deteriorating and lagging more. The truth is, I can't really understand those polls that gave 61 seats to that bloc without the Arab parties. I mean, they are now, they are now at 40 mandates, 40-something mandates, to say that they brought a surge to 61 mandates without having some kind of magnet there. And while we know that the public is leaning right, I don't really know who dared to present this thing. But listen, something is starting here that Filber said would happen right after the lists closed, and that is that the trend would start to shift toward the polls he publishes, where he claims there is a solid right-wing bloc for Netanyahu and that he also has 30 mandates. So a very, very interesting event: if in the coming month, as we have a month or so left until the elections, whether we will see the polls going up and giving more towards a decision that will indeed be on the right side, that will indeed be for Netanyahu, or if we are really staying in a tie. Come on. Look at the elections in Sweden, where the center-left bloc beat the right-wing bloc by 26,000 votes. What are you saying? Only that, meaning less than a mandate compared to our elections here and there. Yes, let's move to the second arena; the second arena is the Smotrich-Feiglin vs. Ben-Gvir arena; we constantly had a tendency to say this goes up, this falls, and vice versa. Now we are noticing a very interesting phenomenon. Feiglin and Smotrich are becoming a home for masses of right-wingers. Some of them even considered voting for centrist parties, the center of the political map, some even considered voting for Lieberman. And you see them coming to Feiglin. Feiglin and Smotrich are bringing eight mandates in most of the polls. You are talking about a party that wasn't even sure it would bring four mandates. Feiglin, I even see young people like that, you know, observant, who tell me: listen, Feiglin is a serious man, examined all the country's problems, knows how to deal with issues, a level-headed man, a man with an agenda. Smotrich delivered the goods, a big deal. If the Haredim brought 5%of what he brought, we would be dancing in the streets. He drew his voters, and here we reach a very interesting phenomenon: these two movements are taking off together. They won't both drop today, probably, below eight mandates, which is 16 mandates. That is a lot. You know why? Because who believed that to the right of the right there is room for a 16-mandate bloc, and alongside them is this political animal that we don't know what to call, which is Zehut, a combination of half-meshuggenah and half-Messiah. Some kind of guy who is sure of himself. A Yair guy. A very Yair-like guy, reminds me of Yair in his first editions. He thinks that what he says is what happens, and we are in a very interesting phenomenon. Why do I call it an interesting phenomenon? Because if Zehut passes, it's almost the only chance for Bibi to form a government. Because think about what's happening. It's true that Smotrich, Feiglin, and Ben-Gvir will weaken the Likud, but that doesn't matter. Because in the end , if the bloc is strong, and if United Torah Judaism brings its votes, and Shas starts to move toward nine mandates, Bibi can start to smell the 61 mandates. And we didn't believe we would reach this place. It was clear to us that Smotrich lowers Ben-Gvir and vice versa, but what are you discovering here? They succeeded in dividing the votes to the right of the right between them with professionalism and artistry. Smotrich really centers the educated public and the Torah-observant core and the people, how shall we put it, the salt of the earth of the Right, and Ben-Gvir all the hot temperament, all the guys who say: "Come on, let's go get them." Nobody asks Ben-Gvir: "What did you do in the last term?", right? They want to see him on patrols with dogs in all the Arab villages, feeling that now it's not just some boiling temperament, because it's like we need one crazy person against all those crazy people, and this is our crazy person. Do you think Winter will run to the end ? Give me a status, let's see. Regarding that, tell me. At least before he set out on his way, he conveyed to everyone who needed to know—and by that, I mean the rabbis and politicians he met with—that if he sees he is endangering the Right-wing bloc, and if he sees he is endangering a Right-wing government, he will withdraw and not run to the end. He also has people on his list who are identified as even further right than him, who I believe could pressure him on judgment day. Therefore, Winter isn't taking off, and it's a very, very interesting event, because he was actually the biggest promise of this election cycle. He launched a party at the last minute, relatively speaking, before the list closure, and brought in a diverse and interesting list: like Yoseph Haddad and Natalie Sam Tov from the media. And so, the fact that he isn't taking off in the end, and is still hovering at four mandates, may certainly bring him to a place where he withdraws. Netanyahu is debating: Should he attack him? Should he not attack him? There is total confusion there, one day like this, one day like that. There are people in his inner circle who tell him: "Look here." He is debating for two reasons: one reason is that he might not pass the electoral threshold and will waste votes; the second reason is that he isn't loyal to the bloc, it could be that he will go with Liberman. There are those conspiracies, which at least according to everyone who knows this man, that's not where he is. But you know, we already saw Naftali Bennett who did that exact thing. So Winter is still going to be a question mark until the very last moment: will he really run to the end when he is hovering around four to six mandates in the best polls? Or will he withdraw at the last moment and fold? Great, let's move to the next arena, another arena is The arena in the Change Bloc of the struggles between Bennett and Liberman on one side and Eisenkot on the other; they are already talking among themselves as if the cake is already in their hands. There is a crazy feeling there in the Change Bloc; for months they have felt they are winning. None of them know how to conduct an election 100 percent like Bibi knows how to do. They aren't killers, they aren't cruel. None of them also go out to the street and get the... When Bibi ignites the fires, who can stand against him? He doesn't see anyone in his way and he takes no prisoners, and we know things he is doing these days that are borderline. But he will do everything in his power, with his age, his exhaustion, and the face—you can see he's an old man— but he’s putting up a fight. But then , what is the celebration inside the " Change Bloc" really about? They are essentially sitting as if they have already won the election; they’re in the thick of negotiations. So he says: "Guys, listen, I’ve been on the sidelines for four election cycles, I’m the most experienced of you all, how many will I bring?"" I’ve held every position, yes, how many will I bring? Eight or nine seats? I don't have the capacity for more, but without me, you can't form a government ." And Bennett’s current sting is: " Listen, Eisenkot, you’re a good guy, you’re a nice guy, but you can’t lead. I will be prime minister." He says it to him in private rooms, he says it outside, and he blows Eisenkot away. And he builds a block with Bennett; they meet quite frequently together. After all, Bennett, having been diminished to the dust, what does he have to do? Form some sort of partnership of destiny with Liberman. Why? He thinks very correctly, really. He says: "If I come with Liberman, then we will snatch the premiership and create a triple leadership." Meaning Liberman is Prime Minister. Defense portfolio for Eisenkot. " I am Alternate Prime Minister." And I am Alternate Prime Minister. He is Foreign Minister and in charge of the Abraham Accords and the dialogues with Washington and the Emirates. Putin and Zelensky—he can even mediate between them. Beautiful. And they think they will walk, step with arrogance, with a lot of nerve toward Eisenkot, and Eisenkot is perceived by them as a product—a candidate to be exploited, someone managed by people. This, by the way, is true; unlike him, who manages everyone, he is a product that is managed 100%. When they asked him, "Do you listen to your advisors?" he said, "I hear them, I..." Not Liberman. "I hear them, but I am the manager, I am the boss." So, so the discourse between them now is constantly: "No, no, no, Eisenkot, don't think you’re getting close to the premiership; you’re just here to be with us in the wagon." Eisenkot says just now, on the eve of Yom Kippur: "I will not let the head of an eight-seat party be prime minister." Now, it’s " I won't let" and "I won't let," and it’s a delusional and detached group. I think, and I advise them: First of all, go win, go see how you handle the Arab side, can you rely on an Arab party—just do your own math. There was some uproar Eisenkot had with the heads of the authorities he met with. Yes, the Bedouins. This is his toughest day of the campaign, perhaps the day that will take everything back after months. By the way, you also notice something interesting. It's true that Eisenkot is leading with some sort of seniority and polls above 20 seats, but he is preventing the bloc’s breakthrough. After all, one must think "bloc" all the time, not "party." What will you gain if you bring another three seats but your bloc has dropped to 50 seats? And it's true that Eisenkot is considered balanced, and it’s true that he appeals more to the 150,000 swing voters in the center of the political map. And they tried to sell him as a civil tradition. Fair, but still, still, we are a federation of tribes and sectors. And getting Eisenkot into the voting bases of Ramla, or bringing him into Netanya—entire regions—is very, very, very complicated. That is why I am following this arena within the " Change Bloc" with interest. I think the one who could actually make a breakthrough there is Yair Golan. And ask me why? Because, in the end, they brought the most people to the primaries, and if they flex their muscles, they could pick up another two mandates. By the way, what mandates? Giving everything for every vote, for every elderly person in a nursing home, for every tourist vacationing in Amsterdam or Athens—bringing them here. I'm not underestimating their organizational power; I don't understand what's happening to Lapid’s campaign machine, it was always one of the best. Maybe we’ll see it on the day after, it’s true, but. And Bennett brought his good luck to the whole bloc, and the event there is definitely a very interesting one. The connection between Bennett and Liberman that you mentioned earlier. I think that is part of Netanyahu's fear. Because now we see, as we talked about at the beginning, that the polls are a bit better and they did make a change and a facelift on the Right, but, Netanyahu, in my opinion, feared a bloc that would rise against him, an additional right-wing bloc that would rise within the political system—that is Liberman, Bennett, and Saar. And this thing, after all, what is happening? Let's assume we get to the day after the elections and there is no resolution of 60 mandates for either side, then Netanyahu will have to negotiate with Eisenkot. Yes, we even see that Eisenkot doesn't completely rule out a rotation with Netanyahu, and all of this, I think, is Netanyahu's fear: that a bloc will rise within the right-wing bloc in the political system and say: "If Netanyahu is negotiating with Eisenkot and wants to get the Prime Minister position, why, why can't we do it?" After all, he doesn't have a full right-wing government; he has to bring in elements from the Left, so we will do it. And the fact that Saar isn't rising and isn't managing to take many mandates, still keeping this bloc at under 3-something mandates, is also a source of reassurance, as it were, for Netanyahu. I would like to dedicate our last 10 minutes to our three favorite and cherished parties. Four parties, by the way, no? There is UTJ and Agudat Yisrael. Yes, yes, you're right, I want us to start precisely with Shas. Go ahead. An interesting story is developing here between Shas’s spiritual leader, Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef, and Shas chairman Aryeh Deri. Let’s just say the peace agreement between them is quite strained, meaning, we haven’t discussed this here in depth. Yes, we have discussed this in depth. And here is what is happening. Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef started off hesitantly. After that, it seemed like he was making an effort to visit the trouble in Holon, and in the last week, he is giving a fight. As the spiritual leader of Shas. Maybe the definition isn't " giving a fight." The definition is that he is stirring up the field. Listen, what he is doing. He is issuing the most incendiary sermons against Ben-Gvir and against the Attorney General. He has become the front of the right-wing bloc in everything; it’s not just that suddenly you see the right-wing bloc has a leader, has a rabbi, There is, of course, the Attorney General who landed the perfect campaign for them with the story of the Hillula of Rabbi Ovadia. While Ben-Gvir is scouring the homes of the Council of Torah Sages, visiting Rabbi Yigal Cohen , visiting Rabbi Ben-Albaz, everything is immediately all over TikTok. Yes. Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef steps up, hits him right between the eyes, and says: Anyone who supports and calls to ascend the Temple Mount, I forbid voting for him according to Halacha. Now listen, in the surrounding circle of Shas, if these videos are circulated on phones until the polls open, Rabbi Yitzhak will take quite a few votes—I wouldn’t say—and bring them back to Shas. These statements are sharp, and as the spiritual leader of Shas, Rabbi Yitzhak Yosef sees something here; he goes up with the flu, with a fever, to give a speech, he’s not a young man and with the...what do you call it, the last bit of fuel in... And in the late hours of the night, the scenes at Shas are crazy. An amazing phenomenon, and you see Aryeh Deri next to him, looking completely enchanted, saying: What’s happening here? A moment ago I had nothing, and suddenly now I have everything. I wouldn’t be surprised, by the way (they can’t hear us, Avraham), I wouldn’t be surprised if they manage to reach an agreement on the presidency of the Council of Torah Sages the day after the elections, and won’t need to pressure and send emissaries to bring it about. Because Aryeh Deri will suddenly realize, suddenly, that his avoidance for an entire term of appointing a president and official leader is part of his difficulty in managing and moving the systems now. There is a "landlord," there is a spiritual figure, there is a mantle—you can't keep working off a poster from 10 years ago. The poster is nice, but people ask: Who is the boss? Who has the keys and all that? This is a crazy phenomenon that is happening. And it’s excellent for him even if, God forbid, he doesn’t succeed in regularizing the status of Torah scholars in the next Knesset either. It’s much better for him that Rabbi Yitzhak is by his side, and let's call it, he will share part of the blame with him so it doesn't fall solely on him. It will also fall on the spiritual leadership, both in Shas and in the Ashkenazi party. That can be much, much more comfortable for the politicians. And that is why perhaps Aryeh is starting to understand that Rabbi Yitzhak is a very, very great asset. That is his winning ticket. Yes. Come enlighten us, Avraham, on the street battles within Agudat Yisrael, because I’ve already lost track of what’s happening there; explain to me what’s going on. Let’s start with the fact that something else probably happens every hour, and it’s as if everything is constantly changing. But first of all, unlike previous elections, this time there is a new, young, and energetic chairman there, but one we already know : Yaakov Asher, who stepped into the shoes of Golknov and replaced Gafni. Also, and he is closing deals with, uh ...the two parties. He doesn’t just have one Hasidic party to close with; he has two: Agudat Yisrael and Chomat Torat Yisrael, the new party that was established. He needs to close with them, he’s closing a joint campaign with them that...will probably launch after the elections–or rather...after the holidays, until the elections in the month that remains. And that is, in fact, news in the sense that they are going to...go with a single message, and together there will still be campaigns, you know, smaller and focused on the various sects. But there is a big question about whether the Hasidic public, and the Litvak public as well, will come out to vote in droves this time. Regarding the Litvak public, we know the turmoil it went through with the ousting of Gafni and Maklev and how it was received— whether it was done well or poorly. There is, within the Hasidic public—I could build you a whole conspiracy that they are talking about in the headquarters. Why there might be a drop in the numbers there, and it goes like this: keep in mind, in the eighth spot on the list stands Tesler. And the Vizhnitzer. And the Vizhnitz representative, yes, there the interest of Belz is to keep him out, because if he stays out, it means two mandates for Chomat Torat Yisrael and one for Agudat Yisrael, which is 2—so they have an interest in staying home; conversely, Gur and Vizhnitz also have no interest in turning out. On the contrary, they have an interest in a very, very significant collapse of the party. Why? Gur gets their representative in. Tesler is shaky anyway. Let’s collapse the party down to five mandates, that’s how far some are willing to go. And the new, young, threatening Belz representative, Eliyahu Stark, will be left out. These are things being discussed, I tell you, in the highest places. Although when I checked and tried to talk, everyone denied it, but they talked—they are talking about these scenarios. And yet, I think, first of all in Belz I think we will see very high turnout, because they have an interest in showing that the young representative they brought in, you know, has something behind him and it’s worth bringing him in. And there is also a sense of rejuvenation there, a feeling of something new and fresh, and that it’s fun to come and vote. And also in the end, you know, both Gur and Vizhnitz, ultimately the Admor of Gur and the Admor of Vizhnitz will instruct their Hasidim to vote, and we will see—we know the Gur Hasidism comes in masses to vote every time, and I don't think there will be a decline in that regard either. And also within the Litvak public, once Rabbi Landau and Rabbi Hirsch release their videos on the importance of voting for the party, everyone will show up and fall into line. Therefore, I think we can talk about seven or eight mandates for United Torah Judaism and there won't really be a collapse. I’d like to ask a question, Avraham. What is Yitzhak Goldknopf's interest in talking leftist all the time and driving away Chabad Hasidim and right-wingers who fear the installation of a left-wing government? When in fact he wants to get his friend Tesler inside. If I follow what’s been happening here for the last two weeks, at least 10,000 Chabad votes—that’s the Jerusalem and Bnei Brak bases, the ultra-Orthodox Chabadniks who voted for Gimmel, Rabbi Landau’s family in Bnei Brak, all these families that have always voted Gimmel—not one of them will vote Gimmel now after Goldknopf goes on air every two hours and announces he’s going to crown Eisenkot. Now, if he’s working in the service of another party, it would be interesting to know if he doesn't grasp the significance of what he’s doing. What, out of all 100,000 Gerrer Hasidim in Israel, is there not one person who will whisper to him and say: "Rabbi Yitzhak, go lead the prayers in the synagogue because you’re causing us a disaster here"? What, maybe...what am I missing here, Avraham? Maybe he’s got a deal with Ben Gvir, you know, and he decided to—could be he’ll be a minister in Ben Gvir’s party. That’s it, maybe on his behalf, yes. No, I honestly, I really can’t understand this whole event. Actually, I haven't really seen him speaking out or being interviewed lately. I’m talking to you about today—today he released a video: "We will go with Eisenkot, we will...he will give us, we will take..." Well, I didn’t notice that video, but I think Yitzhak Goldknopf—we already know his statements, and we’ve talked about it here. We even issued an emotional appeal in one of the episodes : "Mr. Goldknopf, when the threat of your removal from your position in the Gerrer Hasidut was on the table, you knew how to hide, you knew how to run away, you knew how to go underground, to talk less and do less damage." We stand by that call. Go back home, talk less, do less damage, disturb less, and ... And on that optimistic note, Avraham, we part ways. Exactly. With all the blessings for a new year, that with God's help we will only be able to share good news and that this unpleasant election period will pass quickly. That there will be no sadness. Yes, and that the Holy One, blessed be He, as they say, will shine His face upon this people, which is accustomed to strife, that is dragging through this war and is truly suffering from rifts and disasters—it is time for a little rest and tranquility for the people dwelling in Zion. Happy holiday. Happy holiday, thank you. You have been listening to "Off the Record" from Mishpacha Podcast. I am Yossi Elituv, and with me is Avraham Freund. Thanks to content editor Tehila Siton, production manager Yael Goldstein, and sound and video editors Avremi Weiz, Daniel Levin, and Yael Vella. All series and episodes are waiting for you on the Mishpacha website, on all podcast apps, and on the phone line 077-220. Extension 74. Goodbye, with God's help, in the coming episodes.